I am sure I don’t understand the question.
Is the question one of transmission methodology? analogue aerial / digital aerial / digital over data network?
Is the question one of locality of content and programming?
Is the question one of business structure? large organisation / small local entity
Is the question one of funding? pay to view / government supported / corporate sponsorship / paid by advertising / combination of the above
To my knowledge (and I stand to be corrected), the structure of the US television market is different from other parts of the world. The same cable/broadcast paradigm just didn’t exist where I grew up and doesn’t really exist where I live now. There are a large number of different options possible and the market will develop according to what is most profitable which is determined by infrastructure already in place, consumer demand and where the money is: as well as a certain amount of government regulation in some parts of the world.
I submit that the future of television will mirror what has happened in in-flight entertainment. In the past there was one movie played to all. Then a number of different channels were available and individuals could choose which they wanted. Now we have individually streamed feeds and users select for themselves what they want.
I believe in TV there will be a tendency for more material to be sent over data networks to individuals with users having full autonomy. Set-top boxes and PVR will have their day and disappear as networks get up to speed. Advertisers will get their hand in and probably slow the transition because users will not choose to watch advertising given the option.
It is likely that there will always be a place for passive viewing and hence programming of some kind. (People still listen to the radio even though we can carry a gazillion songs around with us and choose what we want to listen to.) There will also be a place for subsidised special interest programming such as educational material, certain documentaries and programmes designed for minority indigenous groups and the like.
I think the dichotomy set up by the OP is false. Like any market, TV will follow money, public demand and technology. There are a large number of different places that it could end up and its future form is likely to be different in different parts of the globe.