From what I’ve read and heard, there are alrge segments of the Afghan population that are sympatehtic to aQ.
If it was, so what? A “talking point” doesn’t automatically make something wrong or bad.
Not much traction? It was discussed on every news analysis show I watched over the last few days. It will continue to get traction for some time to come. I don’t see why Obama just doesn’t accept that the surge has had some success and move on. It’s not that big a deal because his overall strategy is even more reasonable in light of what successes have been achieved.
The surge has been a failure. Why should he say it’s a success when it’s a failure?
I’m not Dio, but I’m not that far from him in my position on the troubles of the Iraqi people. I differ from him on the issue of the Iraqi civil war being our problem; to the extent that it is our fault, it is our problem.
Our duty to mitigate its effects extends to opening our treasury; it does not extend to opening our veins.
I don’t think this means 27% in all the country, but in the southern provinces, but we need to remember Afghanistan is not a nation it is a tribal society with an artificial imperial southern border dividing the Pashtuns (I think), which isn’t generally recognised.
To the more informed voter, Obama’s position is even more stupid. The Surge in Iraq was done for very specific reasons - there was a good plan in place that needed X more soldiers to be carried out. The soldiers were brought in, the plan was carried out, and it worked.
The problem in Afghanistan is far more intractible, and we don’t yet have a good strategy for fixing things there. More soldiers are certainly needed, but only in the sense that the current garrisons and patrols are too lightly manned and therefore too vulnerable. But to talk of it as a ‘surge’ is ridiculous. The surge was part of a tactical shift, and was designed to be temporary. Increasing troop level in Afghanistan would not be.
So says your girlfriend Obama. Except it didn’t work out that way, did it? You lost that argument, Obama was dead wrong, the surge quelled the violence as people who actually knew what they are talking about predicted.
Once again, you and Obama don’t have a clue. The Anbar Awakening was moribund, precisely because the population wasn’t protected from al-Qaida. It took the change to ‘clear and hold’ to protect the population, which allowed them to rise up.
More aid will be necessary, for sure. But at this point, we don’t know how to do that. You can build a great infrastructure, but so long as the population is uneducated and doesn’t know how to do anything except grow poppies, you risk turning the entire country into a welfare state. Afghanistan is an extremely difficult problem, and there are no glib solutions here.
Ah, the irony of someone who calls the Republican base dull and stupid, yet who gets his military knowledge from a late-night comedian…
WHAT? Oh, this must be the audacity of making shit up or something.
So says the dreamy Obama, but other people, like say General Petraeus, do not agree. You don’t have the foggiest notion of what happened. The change to a proper COIN strategy was the key ingredient in breaking the back of al-Qaida in Iraq and allowing the population to rise up. The negotiating that went on between the Sunni and Shia leaders was a completely different subject. Which, by the way, couldn’t take place so long as the violence was happening.
By the way, I find it amazing that Obama, who is the darling of the anti-war crowd, advocates actually invading Pakistan. You talk about the risks of the surge - do you have ANY idea how risky moving large numbers of troops into Pakistan would be? This is a country with an unstable government, the most anti-American population around, and which has oh, about 130 nuclear weapons and missiles to launch them with.
The parallels between Afghanistan and Vietnam (and Korea) are a lot closer than they are between Iraq and Vietnam. Vietnam and the Korean war’s major problem was that military hardware and funds were flowing across an untouchable border for fear of escalating the war into a nuclear confrontation. That’s exactly the same problem in Afghanistan. Obama’s saying that he’ll send troops into Pakistan is like MacArthur threatening to send soldiers into China, or Nixon threatening to bomb supply lines in China.
Perhaps going into Pakistan will eventually need to be done, and I’m open to the notion if things go badly to hell. But it sure isn’t the strategy of first choice, and I’m amazed that you anti-war types just shrug when Obama suggests it.
You talk about risks of the surge - here’s a risk for you: The U.S. sends large numbers of troops into Pakistan. The population becomes enraged. The Taliban-friendly military leaders demand action. Musharref does nothing. There is a coup. Musharref falls. Militants take over Pakistan. India, seeing a threat to itself escalate wildly, invades. And yahoo, we have a major war involving three nuclear-armed nations.
That’s the risk Obama is willing to take, apparently. This makes Bush’s adventurism pale in comparison.
No it didn’t. The goal of the escalation till has not been achieved. Do you even know what that goal was? (hint: it was not just to “reduce violence”…something the escalation had little to do with anyway).
No he doesn’t. When did you become a fucking idiot?
Can’t you know how to win a war without having actually done it? Winning a war would be **proof **that you knew how to do it, but even without the proof you could know.
Maybe, but you don’t know until you do it and it’s stupid to go around saying you know how do do it before you’ve done it.
Ridiculous. By that logic, neither Obama nor McCain can claim anything. Neither of them have been president so they can’t claim to know how to do anything as president. They’ve also never done anything in 2009, so they can’t know anything about doing anything then. Etc etc.
“Hi, I’m John McCain and I’m running for president. On the basis of a lot of stuff, I strongly suspect that I know how to win a war. To be fair, I don’t know that I can. I’ve never run a war, so darn it, I just can’t tell. However, an independent team of statisticians has run a Bayesian analysis showing I am 43% more likely to know how to win a war than my opponent. America, it’s time to play the odds. John McCain for President.”
To be fair, about a year ago (cite), Obama said that “as president he would be prepared to order U.S. troops into that country unilaterally if it failed to act on its own against Islamic extremists.” So he might invade Pakistan under certain circumstances – though that’s not the same as advocating that the U.S. invade Pakistan eithen then or now.
Its true, we argue at a disadvantage, as a DFH, I entirely lack your solid expertise in things military.
He advocates (albeit somewhat elliptically) the possibility of performing strikes on terrorist training camps, if the government of Pakistan continues to be unwilling or claims to be unable to eradicate these camps on their own. Although this is an invasion of sorts (as US or NATO troops would presumably be unwelcome by the Pakistani government and many people) it isn’t the sort of wide infantry movement or occupation that Sam Stone describes, nor would such an effort even be plausible; in Iraq and Afghanistan, we at least have adjoining logistical beachheads through which to provide supplies and support. There would be no such venue in Pakistan, nor would any of Pakistan’s neighbors provide assistance and support for such an action. I’m not clear whether Sam is confused about what Obama has said or is being intentional obtuse, but it isn’t even an option.
Iraq and Afghanistan are very different situations; our interests in Iraq, aside from the petrodollars, are based on not wanting Iran to become predominate in the region. Neither does anyone else in leadership; however, because of how the United States opened the war and the way it fumbled the early days of occupation, nobody else really wants to get stuck to that tar-baby. It is also the case that Iraq is not a nation formed by natural alliances but was rather artificially drawn up by the British with lines cutting right across various ethnic and religious regions, ensuring that short of an autocratic and repressive government with a powerful policing force (preferably native) ethnic strife will continue in that nation for the foreseeable future. The best we can really do in Afghanistan is to build up their police force and encourage other Middle East nations to support Iraq against Iranian or fundie Islam incursion.
Afghanistan, on the other hand, is a nation vacated by fundamentalist wing-nuts who are now basing from the north and Pakistan. It has been a battleground for various European nations and Russia for several centuries, and has rarely had a continuum of stable government, and is currently at just above Stone Age level in terms of infrastructure, technology, and education. If left alone it will continue to fester and house fundamentalist Muslims, and no effort to create an internal police force to resisst this is likely to have any measureable degree of success. A continued, if limited, occupation of Afghanistan is in Western interests insofar as limiting the spread of aggressive jihadist Islam and reducing the opium trade.
Neither of these situations can properly be called a “war” in the conventional sense; the fight is against insurgents, funded and based externally. There are no real victory conditions or the possibility of unconditional surrender. Any metrics for success need to be based on what action does in terms of inproving the livelyhood of the occupants and improving the security of the United States and NATO. Very little we are going to do in Iraq will meet those metrics; there is a considerable amount that can be done in Afghanistan which may bear such fruit.
Stranger
This is what Obama actually said about Pakistan:
In other words, he only said he would strike at terrorist targets in Pakistan if the Pakistanis were uncooperative and gave him no choice. He never said he would “invade” Pakistan.
Are you saying, Sam, that if we learn that Osama bin Laden is in Pakistan and know his exact location, but Pakistan refuses to do anything about it, that we should say “ok, then,” and just fuck off back to America? Is that what conservatives hope McCain will do?
Incidentally, Bush bombed Pakistan without their permission earlier this year. Can you tell me why there’s any difference between what Bush just did and what Obama has said he would do?
One doesn’t learn much about War at the National War College. The curriculum assumes most students have already studied the classics on war. It teaches mainly about international relations, interagency relations, and how military power is just one element of national strategy. The focus is on the non-military intruments of power and how they interact when developing national security strategy. Some folks get it – others never get beyond the tactical.
Too bad they didn’t teach the difference betweeni Sunnis and Shiites at War College.
I knew what Obama had said about Pakistan before I made my post. Calling surgical strikes on Al-Qaeda in a border region an “invasion” puts one in the general IQ vicinity of Glen Beck.
I was backing you up, not disagreeing with you.