Why evolution by 'random chance' can't exist without the supernatural

Yep, “The chances that anyone has ever shuffled a pack of cards in the same way twice in the history of the world are infinitesimally small, statistically speaking” As Stephen Fry explains in QI:

[QUOTE] The number of possible permutations of 52 cards is '52 factorial' otherwise known as 52! or 52 shriek. This is 52 times 51 times 50 . . . all the way down to one.

To give you an idea of how many that is, here is how long it would take to go through every possible permutation of cards. If every star in our galaxy had a trillion planets, each with a trillion people living on them, and each of these people has a trillion packs of cards and somehow they manage to make unique shuffles 1,000 times per second, and they’d been doing that since the Big Bang, they’d only just now be starting to repeat shuffles.
[/QUOTE]

Yes. As Novelty Bobble implied, ‘making a good argument’ may not be the OP’s intention.

I had a relative who planned to become a pastor; he was always trying to come up with ‘proofs’ that God had created the universe. The tactic he clung to most persistently was to cite ‘the odds against life arising on a planet.’ These were something on the order of one in ten gazillion. Therefore: God!

I would say in reply, ‘well, it doesn’t matter if the odds are only one in ten gazillion; all it takes is the one.’ (And of course it’s a truism that if a being is thinking about those odds, then the being must be able to trace its ultimate origin to a planet on which life arose.)

This argument is still being widely used to “prove” the existence of God. A search of the phrase “odds against life arising” yields a couple of thousand hits, and variations on the phrase would yield even more.

Also, if there are, say, ten thousand gazillion planets, then the odds become a thousand to one in favor of life arising “by chance.”

This was the key blunder that Henry Morris kept making in his “Scientific Creation” books and speeches. He’d show how unlikely it was for a cell (why a cell?) to arise by chance…but he always used “1” for the numerator, as if there was only once chance, ever, in all of time and space, for a cell to come into existence. We know better than that!

…except its atheists themselves who claim this; I’ve run into atheists who say things along the lines of, “evolution happened by random chance, therefore this proves there is no God, or that life is meaningless, etc”.

Even though randomness in the scientific contexts doesn’t mean “happened for no reason” - so atheists misuse the word ‘random’ themselves, then blame others for not using the correct definitions.

At least you appear to be admitting that you don’t understand evolution.

I have a layman’s understanding of it, and have read books on evolution and science.

I can say with confidence I understand it better than many ‘internet atheists’, so sure my argument wasn’t against the theory itself, it was against the atheistic argument that ironically is a misuse of the term ‘random’ by atheists themselves.

Based on what you’ve posted so far, your understanding is very poor.

You’re still mischaracterizing the scientific argument. Yes, some non-scientists have said that “evolution proves there is no God.” Science doesn’t say that; evolution neither proves there is a God, nor that there isn’t one.

Random variations in the offspring of existing plants and animals happens for no directed reason. Cosmic rays, radioactive elements, or mere shuffling of DNA segments, all contribute to the randomness inherent in descent. “Descent with modification,” as Darwin wrote. A cosmic ray is a reason for a DNA segment to break. It is, however, about as random an event as can be found.

You’re using a word in two different senses, and then blaming us for the apparent contradiction.

Evolution doesn’t address the existence or non existence of a deity, it describes an observed process of change.

Since the duplicate thread was shut down, I’ll just copy my response here:

Evolution doesn’t even need to involve life forms.

Why does Earth exist? Well, because it didn’t get absorbed into the Sun or blown into pieces by a striking asteroid. It happened to exist in a spot where it was able to achieve a long-lasting, relatively static existence. Most other material of the solar system ended up quite different.

But one thing to note is that there is no “meaning” to the circularness and complexity of the Earth. We think of it as a home, as an entity, as something meaningful. But it’s not. There was material floating about in a vacuum and the physical laws of the universe acted upon it. Some material ended up becoming planets, some moons, some asteroid belts, some gas clouds, etc. The fact that some material is finely spread out in a vast mist between solar systems doesn’t mean that, that material is less “organized” or less a thing than our planet, it just ended up that way.

Evolution is basically just the observation that things which last, are the things which last. Something which can be destroyed more easily, will be destroyed more easily. Suns have a longer lifespan than planets because planets are easier to destroy. A marble stone will last longer than a limestone, because it is harder to destroy.

Now if you have a cauldron of atoms, swirling about, those atoms will either react to form molecules, or react with molecules to break them back down into atoms. Molecules which, due to the particular mixture of atoms and the laws of physics, are more difficult to break down, will continue to exist within the cauldron, instead of being broken down.

And that gives us a cauldron of molecules, swirling about. These molecules will either react to form larger, more complex molecules, or break each other down into more simple forms. Molecules which, due to the particular mix of chemicals and the rules of chemical bonds, are more difficult to break down, will continue to exist within the cauldron, instead of being broken down.

One particular instance of a chemical continuing to exist is if it is able to “eat”. I.e., it is able to take in most of the molecules that exist in the cauldron and use them to patch in gaps. That is to say, as it is broken down, it is able to build itself back up to match.

If you then extend that so that the parts which are sloughed off are able to eat and grow themselves, then you’ve really got something that can keep going.

This might sound like a rather difficult thing for a chemical to do, but fire is able to do it, for example. Propagating chemical reactions aren’t necessarily common, but they’re not unknown either.

But given billions of years and a sufficiently diverse set of cauldrons, and you might find a reaction occurring which is cyclical. For example, it might produce some waste, which another reaction turns back into food for the original reaction.

There’s no wisdom behind this. It’s just the result of the wide variety of things that exist, the long timespan, and the diverse set of results that physical laws allow for, depending on what two things you put together, at whatever particular energy level.

Large molecules can form naturally from the result of a large body of chemical reactions, over a long period of time. As a molecule becomes larger, it will usually become more ungainly and easy to break down. But, by random chance, some will be shaped in some way that makes them, instead, more difficult to break down or more capable of continuing to propagate, via a chain reaction.

And that is evolution.

The things which would not be able to persist in a larger form, have been broken down into simpler forms. The remainder will generally be in a larger, more complex form, since that particular form happens to be resistant to being broken down. Add billions of years and undersea volcanic vents, and you’ll have a pretty diverse set of complex molecules, eating one another, growing, and becoming more complex (or being broken down). Eventually, they turn into viruses and other such quasi-life-forms.

I’d find the debate easier to follow if OP had picked just one of Big Bang and Evolution as the proof of God’s existence. The conjunction is confusing.

But given that some universe exists, evolution within that universe doesn’t require any special pleading. In fact computerized genetic algorithms (GA) are sometimes used in optimization.

I excerpted only part of Sage Rat’s eloquent response.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Too bad the thread isn’t about computerized optimization using GA.

[QUOTE=Steven Skiena, noted computer science professor]
It is quite unnatural to model applications in terms of genetic operators like mutation and crossover on bit strings. The pseudobiology adds another level of complexity between you and your problem. Second, genetic algorithms take a very long time on nontrivial problems. […] The analogy with evolution—where significant progress require millions of years—can be quite appropriate.

I have never encountered any problem where genetic algorithms seemed to me the right way to attack it. Further, I have never seen any computational results reported using genetic algorithms that have favorably impressed me. Stick to simulated annealing for your heuristic search voodoo needs.
[/QUOTE]

Hmmm. Do any of the computer gurus here swallow this? Even I once used GA as a (very small) part of a contest-winning computer algorithm. Or what about Danny Hillis’ optimal N=13 oblivious sort, found using genetic algorithms operating on both “predator” and “prey”? !!

This is because creationists conflate basically all of historical science into “the theory of evolution.” I blame it a bit on Darwin for picking a problematic word for describing the result of natural selection–“evolution” already had a meaning “a process of change in a certain direction”, so it is perfectly valid to speak of the evolution of the universe, the evolution of galaxies, the evolution of stars, the evolution of planetary systems, etc., but not mean the same thing as we mean when we talk about the evolution of life. The evolution of a star is predictable, all you need to know is it’s mass and composition to more or less know it’s entire lifetime. The evolution of life is far from predictable, and so different from the other uses of the word, I’d like to think that if Darwin could have looked forward into the future cultural issues, he would picked a different word, at the least borrowing from a different language if not making up something from whole cloth (Darwin’s Theory of Gloobleglap?)

Where do you find atheists who believe nonsense like that? Like in your last thread, I’m left wondering where you find these folks who claim this. Yeah, it’s a nonsensical argument. It’s also not one you’ll find from most atheists, or indeed from most people who know the first thing about evolution.

I believe that they primarily live in Strawmanistan.

Were these books written by Gary Chiang or Phillip Johnson?

Please could you briefly describe the theory of evolution, as you understand it?

OP: “Random” is not an answer to the question of "How?"
“Random” is an answer to the question of "Why?"
As such, it bears no real relation to cause and effect.

If you do a survey with a random sampling of people, “random” does not refer to the actual method of selecting people to survey; it refers to the fact that there were no demographic reasons or criteria driving the choice of people.

Personally, I don’t understand why you have only the choices of “predetermined machine running a predetermined program,” or “supernatural being expressing capricious will.” Why are some people so uncomfortable with the idea of a natural unfolding of things in spontaneous and remarkable ways?

I don’t even see the ineffable and science as being necessarily mutually exclusive. The fact that multiplicities of terms and conditions all had to interlace in such an intricate way to create the balance necessary for our universe to exist in the first place is mind-boggling and awe-inspiring to me. Is this a scientific miracle, or a spiritual miracle? Who cares!?

I’d think that the majority of scientists would prefer things that are effable.

There’s a very excellent VSauce video here on the nature of randomness, order and information - It’s interesting, because it explains how adding information to a system actually makes it more random, not more ordered.

Love it! An entropy generator (like a nice hot cup of tea) might be all we need to allow free will in the universe. And the universe is the biggest entropy generator of all.