Why has the deficit increased so much under Trump

[Ravenman]

@septimus

Did OP’s source overlook them? I don’t know — I was suggesting that as a possibility.

Yeah, this is one reason why I cautioned against mixing and matching sources. If you look at my CBO link in my previous post, “net interest” is called out in the spending charts.

[Wesley_Clark]

@Wesley_Clark

Yeah but as I mentioned, tax revenues didn’t really decline from 2015-2019. They didn’t grow much either but they didn’t decline.

However, who knows what they would’ve been w/o the tax cuts. Does anyone know? If the US raises 3.44 trillion in 2019 after the tax cuts, what would we have raised if the tax cuts hadn’t happened? If tax revenues under the old tax code would’ve been 3.8 trillion or so in 2019, then thats the answer to why the deficit grew.

I did find this

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/opinion/finance/430604-putting-the-trump-tax-cuts-will-pay-for-themselves-myth-to-bed%3Famp

Recent estimates from the Treasury Department show that revenue dropped by 0.4 percent in calendar year 2018, a rare occurrence in American history - particularly when the economy is this strong. That’s bad news for our budget deficits, which are likely to reach $900 billion this year.

A 0.4-percent reduction might not seem like much, but it’s huge when put into context. Inflation grew by about 2 percent, and the economy grew (nominally) by more than 5 percent.

Revenue should have grown by 7 percent this year. Instead, revenues fell. They fell despite strong economic growth, moderate inflation and unemployment at its lowest level in nearly 50 years

So if revenues was 3.3 trillion or so before the cuts, they should’ve gone up 7%, not down 0.4%.

7.4% of 3.3 trillion is 244 billion.

I am interested if the deficit growth can Be broken down by tax or spending program. But if that math is right, the tax cuts may only be one third of the deficit growth. Military would be another third.

[Ravenman]

@Wesley_Clark

I am interested if the deficit growth can Be broken down by tax or spending program. But if that math is right, the tax cuts may only be one third of the deficit growth. Military would be another third.

I linked to a CBO report which literally breaks down the deficit increases, and I summarized them.

In no way does increased military spending account for a third of the deficit increase. I can’t even see how you come to that conclusion.

[XT]

@Ravenman

I linked to a CBO report which literally breaks down the deficit increases, and I summarized them.

In no way does increased military spending account for a third of the deficit increase. I can’t even see how you come to that conclusion.

It must be frustrating for you. You gave a complete answer (best in the thread, IMHO and FWIW) and got kind of ignored as if you hadn’t posted it. But you killed the thread…you answered the question, basically. There really isn’t more to say.