My impression is that you are not taking the same information I am in the same volume. As I said, I am watching medical professionals analyze Trump in depth. Search on “Shrinking Trump” on YouTube. There is video after video of Trump walking with a strange gait, slurring his words, showing medically recognizable signs of dementia (Shrinking Trump gets into this in depth), etc. In just your average video, however, Trump looks like a big, deteriorating mess. Such as falling asleep in televised cabinet meetings. I’m not sure what more you could want, really, as evidence.
The NYT in the past week or so, put out an article analyzing in detail how Trump’s schedule has radically slowed down as compared to his first term.
And… there’s been a huge MAGA civil war recently featuring MTG and… you said he didn’t need his base anyway, so… If I have to spoon-feed you all the latest stories, etc., then this dialogue becomes frustrating. Nothing personal, but I’ve been dealing here for years with the “Trump going away is too good to be true, so he’ll be here forever no matter what” logic for years. It’s fatiguing to make the same points over and over.
But you are just taking potshots at my position without presenting one of your own. What do you think is going to happen? Take a chance: speculate a little bit.
You can find a youtube video that supports just about any opinion. I don’t put much stock in them. Video editing is a very powerful tool that can make anyone look like the smartest person in the world or the dumbest, the most angelic or the most evil. The strongest or the weakest. It all depends on how it is edited.
It’s not really that huge. It got all the headlines for about a week. Now she has essentially disappeared. She made her move and it didn’t really work out for her. In a year, I doubt anyone will remember who she was.
That’s false. I could have just said you are wrong. I’ve tried to explain why each step of the way. That’s not a fair criticism, IMO. And perhaps I am wrong. Perhaps Trump will be gone in two weeks. It’s entirely possible. But I’m not betting the farm on it. What I think will happen is the continued destruction of this country I love. We have lost the support of much of the world, who wonders how could we ever have let this happen. Even if Trump were to reach the end of the line in the next couple of weeks, the amount of damage he has already done will take decades to repair.
And with that, I’ll bow out now. I’ve said what I wanted to say.
I mean…that goes both ways. Your perpetual “optimism” (I’ll put that in quotes as you may not agree on that take) can be just as tiring as the perpetual “pessimism” of some others on this board.
You often seem pretty assertively confidant about your sunnier takes and that’s perfectly fine. But historically I don’t find many of your arguments that persuasive and I think your predictive success rate isn’t terribly high. Though I suppose that last could just be confirmation bias on my part.
Speaking as a level-headed pragmatist (what-I-consider-myself-to-be, some might strenuously disagree ), I find both ends of the spectrum here a bit wearing at times.
Not that should slow you down - argue away. It doesn’t hurt anything. We’re not influencing movers and shakers here . Just a bit of perspective from the cheap seats.
Yeah. Trump has come as far in his life as he has not because he’s clever or even especially driven, but because over and over throughout his life nearly everyone has submitted to his every whim and turned their heads aside from his crimes. He’s an artifact of privilege. He’s never needed to exert much effort to get anything he wanted and do anything he wanted. He’s shambled his way into nascent dictatorship because nobody has seriously tried to stop him.
Maybe that will change at the last moment, but I doubt it.
What kind of evidence of Trump’s deterioration could you possibly accept then? Also, the things I’m talking about have been caught from every angle by multiple cameras, etc. They are not tricks of the light.
It’s major enough. Cracks in the dike level at least. One Representative has resigned, several key podcasters are openly questioning and criticizing Trump, etc.
No disagreement here. Trump will continue to do damage as long as he is president. The point of the OP, however, is that Trump has failed to establish long-term fascist rule. That’s why I say that you are arguing beside the point, as you have not argued against that position. We clearly agree on much else!
I agree that he has done a tremendous amount of damage, the worst of which is cutting off overseas aid, resulting in actual deaths. He has pretty much destroyed the political norms of the US and shown that our government is quite hackable for the purposes of grift and petty destruction. The GOP will continue to be dead weight on the polity until it is gone, and that might never happen before the entire rotten system is swept away. BUT… Germany and Japan both had long-term fascist systems and were blown to fuck after WWII, but they roared back as economic powerhouses in less than a decade. We haven’t lost a generation of young men on the battlefield, and our infrastructure is fully intact.
Indeed, the US, of all the countries in the world, is actually poised to be the best case scenario within End State Capitalism; it’s merely a matter of not stepping on our own dicks and other protrusions at this point. Trumpism has been Own Dick Stepping 101 for 10 years, and the entire GOP has matriculated in Trump Self-Dick-Crushing University. They’re not going to change at this point; they and their Deplorables are too stupid to change.
So that’s why I’m not an optimist: Rational politics would let us eminently succeed right now and into the foreseeable future, but half the country wants to turn politics into a Battle Royale for Morons out of sheer frustration with the End State Capitalism problems that do not single out the US but affect the entire world. Non-moronic politics would be much preferable to Trumpism but cannot fix the system with a tax credit here or a policy there. Radical change is necessary, but the best practices have yet to be established.
See above for my actual take on where we’re at. If that’s optimism, then I don’t know what pessimism actually is. I simply have been trying to rationally assess Trump’s chances of success of taking total power, and I think I have been vindicated by events thus far.
People don’t take the time the time to delineate where I’ve been right and wrong, so I’m going to have to make a post about it (not that my opinion is particularly important, but so that I can reference the post as a “Cite!” whenever this kind of thing comes up). One thing I called out quite successfully was the impending failure of Ron DeSantis to be the new face of MAGA. Some people actually did give me credit for that at the time.
The Texas districts were carefully chosen after 2020 to dilute the Hispanic and Black population centers with solid red voters to maximize GOP representation. Based on the 2024 election results, in which much of the Hispanic vote (and Black) voters went for Trump, these districts were redrawn to take advantage of that switch.
I am full of hope that many enough of those Hispanic/Black voters who voted for Trump will not just not vote (as they usually do) but vote for their Democratic candidates. That is, instead of gaining 5 seats, they actually lose a few.
I know, hopeful thinking, but as it depends on abject stupidity from the GOP, I feel that with the current state of the GOP we have a shot.
), I find both ends of the spectrum here a bit wearing at times.
. Just a bit of perspective from the cheap seats.