Why is baseball considered the "thinking man's sport"?

[Ulf_the_Unwashed]

Just a couple of points regarding Porcello:

–Boston actually acquired him via trade, not free agency. They got him for a package including Yoenis Cespedes. The big money came just as the season was getting underway, a contract extension worth 4 yrs/$82 million.

–My recollection is that the trade was well received (on Boston’s behalf) by a lot of commentators, though not because of Porcello’s advanced stats. As RickJay points out, Porcello was very young and had had one pretty good year, so there was reason to think that he might be pretty good. Also, the consensus was that Boston was right to get rid of Cespedes, who was a time bomb ready to go off or something. Plus he had a low OBP. And in general I think there was a perception that the Red Sox are a smart organization that usually makes good moves, and so they got the benefit of the doubt.

–The wisdom of the contract extension was more debatable (again, going from memory here), but there were certainly people who defended it on the grounds cited above by several posters: Porcello had definite upside, Boston has a Trump-sized payroll and can afford a bad contract in a way that most teams can’t.

Anyway, based on what we know about advanced stats, the Porcello trade and extension probably didn’t make an awful lot of sense. Should be mentioned though that many teams (all?) have their own proprietary analytics, and Boston’s may have seen something in Porcello’s numbers and profile that the ones available to us, the fans, don’t see.

[on review, I see some of this was covered by DaleSams.]

[RickJay]

@Dale_Sams

BUT…you’d give me a real player AND take all of Porcello’s contract?? I’d make that deal in a heartbeat.

Marco Estrada? Really? Deal made. (Sorry, I forgot he was initially acquired in the Cespedes deal.)

Estrada’s ERA will balloon this year. I’d say there’s three chances in four it’ll be higher than Porcello’s, even accounting for the disparity in fielding talent on the two teams, and Porcello may still be a good pitcher four years from now while Estrada will probably not be a major league pitcher at all four years from now. I sincerely doubt Estrada has a good season as a major league starting pitching left in him.

[Dale_Sams]

@ISiddiqui

Indeed. I also don’t understand this “alt reality” thing - FIP is based on actual things that have occurred. It measures pitchers based on things that they don’t require their defense for (namely strikeouts, walks, HBP, and HRs). You can use that tool for whatever purposes you’d like.

FWIW, Porcello has NEVER been in the Top 10 in the American League in FIP. If Boston was using his FIP numbers to predict he was going to be better than he was in Detroit, they were complete idiots. Most people really had no idea what Boston was doing giving him $20mil a year.

So I think your ire at FIP is completely misplaced.

My rail at Porcello-FIP is based on what SABR heavy Sox fans say to me when saying “last year was Porcello’s only bad year. So there’s no way the brass could anticiapte Porcello doing so poorly”. They use FIP as their argument.

Except it doesn’t even hold up there. And why one would completely ignore ERA+ or WHIP (1.53 in 2012!!) to make the argument ‘Porcello has always been good’ is beyond me.

But yes as other posters have said…he’s young…2014 was a good year…the Sox can afford it and finally the contract is short.

[Dale_Sams]

@RickJay

Marco Estrada? Really? Deal made. (Sorry, I forgot he was initially acquired in the Cespedes deal.)

Estrada’s ERA will balloon this year. I’d say there’s three chances in four it’ll be higher than Porcello’s, even accounting for the disparity in fielding talent on the two teams, and Porcello may still be a good pitcher four years from now while Estrada will probably not be a major league pitcher at all four years from now. I sincerely doubt Estrada has a good season as a major league starting pitching left in him.

I have no reason to disbelieve you. But i think the Sox would make that move too, if anything cause Estrada is 20 mill cheaper and has only two years left on the contract. And so Dombrowski can move “a guy that wasn’t his” and relieve PR pressure. Hell that would be a PR coup.

But after looking at Estrada’s stats last year…surely you agree no GM with balls smaller than Biily Beane would make that move coming off a division title? Even if its the right thing to do? If anything AA would get villified for not getting a better deal.
EDIT: This convo is why baseball is a thinking mans game. Yes i’m sure there are advanced stats in Hockey, BB, football and soccer to be had. But I don’t think like this.

[RickJay]

@Dale_Sams

But after looking at Estrada’s stats last year…surely you agree no GM with balls smaller than Biily Beane would make that move coming off a division title? Even if its the right thing to do? If anything AA would get villified for not getting a better deal.

It’s Ross Atkins now. Anthopolous left for LA.

I think some GMs would make that move. Toronto’s current management is, I assure you, not going to do anything daring in any way.

A bit of info I have I didn’t before is that Porcello has been absolutely shelled in spring training. Dunno if he’s working on something or he’s in serious trouble, but seriously, dude’s gotten ripped.

[Dale_Sams]

@RickJay

It’s Ross Atkins now. Anthopolous left for LA.

I think some GMs would make that move. Toronto’s current management is, I assure you, not going to do anything daring in any way.

A bit of info I have I didn’t before is that Porcello has been absolutely shelled in spring training. Dunno if he’s working on something or he’s in serious trouble, but seriously, dude’s gotten ripped.

I’ve heard that. I try and ignore it cause the SABR guys at Over The Monster trash anyone that so much as suggests ST matters.

I do think it matters in certain contexts. Like the 2011 team that kept saying ST didnt matter and acting like teams would just roll over for them until they realized they might actually need to play the games.

[ISiddiqui]

@Dale_Sams

My rail at Porcello-FIP is based on what SABR heavy Sox fans say to me when saying “last year was Porcello’s only bad year. So there’s no way the brass could anticiapte Porcello doing so poorly”. They use FIP as their argument.

I’d argue that those people are making a horrible argument, because FIP doesn’t apply there. So it’s not the stat that’s the issue, it’s the misuse of it.

In addition, fans of a team will tend to defend to the death a deal their team made, even if it’s horrible. Or will deny obvious things stats are telling them (there are plenty of Yankees’ fans to this day that will say Jeter was a fantastic defensive SS).

Oh, and yes… the $20mil a year was the extension. Even if you thought the trade was ok, the extension was pretty ridiculous.

[Hawkeyeop]

@Dale_Sams

I’ve heard that. I try and ignore it cause the SABR guys at Over The Monster trash anyone that so much as suggests ST matters.

I do think it matters in certain contexts. Like the 2011 team that kept saying ST didnt matter and acting like teams would just roll over for them until they realized they might actually need to play the games.

I think that you are still not understanding what Sabermetrics is. Sabermetrics doesn’t believe that spring training stats matter or don’t matter. Sabermetrics is about asking questions and then figuring out the answers. You believe that spring training can matter in certain contexts? Okay well then lets identify the contexts and look at the data and figure it out.

The reason that “SABR guys” don’t think much of Spring Training stats is that is what the evidence shows. Spring training record has little correlation with regular season record. Players who do well in spring training, don’t do better than expected come April and vice versa. Numerous studies have shown this. There are things that can matter like pitcher velocity and isolate slugging, but for the most part it is all noise.

You have your beliefs on how baseball works. That is fine, but I’d rather figure out how it actually works.

[Jas09]

It’s a bit odd to me that a 27-yo pitcher with a track record between “league average” and “a bit above league average” at 20mill/year (for only 4 years) is seen as a disastrous contract.

Just this offseason we’ve seen Jeff Samardzija sign for $90/5, Ian Kennedy for $70/5, Mike Leake for $80/5, Wei-Yin Chen for $80/5. Those are all guys in the rough ballpark for Porcello (and all are older too). Hell, even the aforementioned Estrada is getting $13mill/year for the next two seasons, and I agree with RickJay that he’s unlikely to be worth it.

I think Porcello’s contract is very close to what it would have been were he not signed to an extension by the Sox.

[Aji_de_Gallina]

@Barkis_is_Willin

Have to disagree with that analysis. You’re only considering uncommon plays to be strategizing, like sacrifices or lineup changes. Pitchers are applying real time strategy throughout the entire game.

But every player in NFL, NBA, fútbol, hockey, handball, and rock-paper-scissors does the same thing. Constantly adjusting what you do is called “playing well”.
Baseball 's almost fixed positions favors micro changes.

[Dale_Sams]

@Hawkeyeop

I think that you are still not understanding what Sabermetrics is. Sabermetrics doesn’t believe that spring training stats matter or don’t matter. Sabermetrics is about asking questions and then figuring out the answers. You believe that spring training can matter in certain contexts? Okay well then lets identify the contexts and look at the data and figure it out.

The reason that “SABR guys” don’t think much of Spring Training stats is that is what the evidence shows. Spring training record has little correlation with regular season record. Players who do well in spring training, don’t do better than expected come April and vice versa. Numerous studies have shown this. There are things that can matter like pitcher velocity and isolate slugging, but for the most part it is all noise.

You have your beliefs on how baseball works. That is fine, but I’d rather figure out how it actually works.

That condescending tone isn’t nessecery

[Hari_Seldon]

@Novelty_Bobble

Cricket certainly has that mantle in the UK, it has far more variables than baseball so much more to talk about.

“test match special” is a BBC radio 4 program that is broadcast for the full 5 days of a test match and they never run out of things to think and talk about.

Please enlighten me about this. I am not being snide. Are there situations like the intnetional walk, the sacrifice, when to change pitchers (and a removed pitcher cannot return, which differs from cricket), the pinch-hitter, the infield shift, generally the placement of all fielders as a function of both the batter and pitcher? Those and a dozen other situational decisions made during the game are what makes baseball the thinking man’s game.

But for my money the thinking man’s game is curling. And no referees to muck things up. (To be honest, there are officials, but aside from an occasional measurement, you might not see a single decision in an entire season. Rules infractions are dealt with by mutual agreement and I have never seen an argument.)

[penultima_thule]

@Hari_Seldon

Please enlighten me about this. I am not being snide.

Yes, but you are being snide, and to a degree woefully consistent with your ignorance.

On your specific points:
a) Intentional walk:
Giving a run to one batsman because there is a better chance of dismissing the other, yes.

b) The sacrifice:
Not in the baseball context because cricket allows only have one out in a play/delivery. But can/do batsmen sacrifice their innings for the advancement of the team, yes.

c) when to change pitchers
Constantly, though in except in injury a bowler must complete the over. If injured then the over must be completed by another player who is in the nominated eleven on the team. not a specialist reserve.

d) a removed pitcher cannot return, which differs from cricket,
Neatly counterbalanced by the fact a dismissed batter cannot return.

e) The pinch hitter:
Change the batting order as the situation demands, yes.

f) Placement of all fielders as a function of both the batter and pitcher?
Different field placement to different types of batters/bowlers & in the context of game? Yes, and to a far greater degree with the number of of fieldsmen and the extent of change. You are, after all defending 360 degrees rather than 90. In cricket the equivalent of moving the 3rd baseman to between 1st & 2nd base just outside the infield for a few pitches would not be remarkable.

And of course, cricket holds fast the the National League philosophy in not allowing designated hitters.

And all this strategy is being contemplated and enacted by the players on the field not being conveyed from the dugout.

American professional sports seem to have a preference to situation play; which in baseball is what adjustments will minimise the chances of the batsman advancing to 1st base. It allows every spectator to imagine what they would do if they were the coach/manager and were calling the play.

Other world sports seem to have a preference for contextual play and the spectators are more often thinking what they would do as a player.

[Dale_Sams]

@penultima_thule

Other world sports seem to have a preference for contextual play and the spectators are more often thinking what they would do as a player.

mm…I still want to coach a soccer team that tries to adopt a more basketball mind-set. You’ve got a possesion. Don’t just throw the ball up for grabs. Work the ball up for a shot. Even a low pct. shot is better than no shot. That’s not to say don’t make long passes on through balls, but don’t just kick it up for grabs.

That’s not even getting into seeing a team each lose possesion four times each in 30 seconds. Collect yourself. Collect your possesion. Calm down. Work the ball up.

Indoors…get all five guys in the opposing third before shooting. Don’t just scream GO!!! and try a breakaway every damn time.

[Little_Pig]

New baseball movie coming out. Trailer for Fastball here.

[Dale_Sams]

@Little_Pig

New baseball movie coming out. Trailer for Fastball here.

That looks amazing LP. thanks.

[Little_Pig]

@Dale_Sams

That looks amazing LP. thanks.

Thanks Dale Sams. I just got back from a week in Scottsdale and next week I get to start this. Check out the Guest Speakers List. Woo Hoo!

[Snarky_Kong]

@russian_heel

Hard to explain beyond that it is the only one of the 4 major sports that has no time limit (yeah, I know, there’s sudden death in all three other sports in certain situations, but baseball is not a timed game).

I can only say that of all 4 major sports, Ive seen many more unpredictable and unprecedented scenarios occur during a game than the other three.

Yes, but baseball is a discrete game. I think that inherently limits it wrt being an infinite game. Significantly less so than continuous sports like soccer, basketball, or hockey.

[Novelty_Bobble]

@Hari_Seldon

Please enlighten me about this. I am not being snide. Are there situations like the intnetional walk, the sacrifice, when to change pitchers (and a removed pitcher cannot return, which differs from cricket), the pinch-hitter, the infield shift, generally the placement of all fielders as a function of both the batter and pitcher? Those and a dozen other situational decisions made during the game are what makes baseball the thinking man’s game.

I think** Penultimate Thule** has covered much of this but I’ll chip in. Certainly all the above have analogies in cricket of equal or greater complexity and remember that cricket also has to deal with the changing conditions of pitch, ball and weather. The captain on the field makes tactical and strategic decisions based on those and many other elements not just for the immediate session of play, but also for hours or days in advance.

Considering just sacrifices, Ian Botham purposefully ran out his captain Geoffrey Boycott because they were scoring at too slow a rate.
Pinch hitters? certainly you can move any of the batsmen up or down the order as the game demands (and this happens regularly)
You can have typically 4-7 or so bowlers in a team (the actions of which vary to far greater extent than baseball) the target area is greater (and includes the head and body of the batsman) and so has greater scope for tactical bowling.
No idea what an infield shift is but the fielding team in cricket is reset, often very drastically, potentially after every ball depending on the state of the game, type of bowler, state of the pitch, state of the match, left-handed or right-handed batsman vs seam/swing/spin/fast/over wicket/round wicket delivery etc. etc. etc. and all this is worked out on the field between captain and bowler, no external help is given.
I struggle to think of a variable in baseball that does not have an equivalent or even more complicated variable in cricket.

This is not to say that baseball is not a “thinking man’s sport”. It clearly is. But just that there is clearly so much more to take on board over the course of a 5-day cricket match.

[penultima_thule]

@Novelty_Bobble

Ian Botham purposefully ran out his captain Geoffrey Boycott because they were scoring at too slow a rate.

I heard the story from an after dinner speech of anecdotes that Dickie Bird gave and had been wrongly under the impression that Bob Willis was the captain, not Boycott’s vice-captain.

Interesting that** Hari Seldon**, having asked to be enlightened hasn’t returned to the thread,