I’d monitor this: How Popular Is Joe Biden? | FiveThirtyEight
And take a note of this:
SDCQNze.png (882×497) (imgur.com)
The reality is neither Obama or Trump’s approval ever moved all that much. The green line is Biden’s rating juxtaposed with the relevant portions of the Obama/Trump terms (note this shows Obama’s first four years in office, not all 8). All three Presidents started out at the strongest they would ever be; all three immediately started to lose approval and drifted towards a middling rating.
Trump really went hard at making it so virtually no Democrats could stand him, and alienated many moderates as well. He went very hard at making the worst part of the Republican base love him. This essentially zeroed out his cross-partisan and moderate support and massively solidified his hardcore partisan support. This resulted in a very stable approval rating–almost no matter what was occurring, in the 38% to 43% range.
Obama was in many ways much better at politics, and actually made attempts to appeal to more than just hardcore Dem partisans. He was, frankly, a much better President than Trump (by the way and so no one forgets and for those who don’t know me–I’m a conservative, I voted against Barack Obama twice, and frequently found fault with his Presidency–but I can freely say he was a better President than Trump.) What did this get for ole Barry? It got him an equally very stable approval rating; a few notches higher than Trump’s. As Barack’s honey moon period ended he gradually fell to just below 50%, and he bounced around in the 45-48% range, with a little dip above 50% (when Osama bin Laden was killed), but that was mostly his range. He dipped a little over 50% right before the 2012 election.
Why am I blathering about all of this?
Well, if you go to the page and look, historically this wasn’t normally. Historically Presidents enjoyed (or suffered) fairly large swings in approval rating based on…political events during their Presidencies. H.W. Bush’s rating soared as he won the Gulf War with minimal American casualties. It tanked as he oversaw an economic recession. Clinton’s got stuck in the doldrums as he governed very centrist (thus alienating some of the liberals who had passionately supported him in the primary), but suffered a lot of rough GOP partisan attacks. The Lewinsky scandal undermined some of his achievements for a time, but by the last 2.5 years of his Presidency Clinton basically was sailing so hard on economic largesse, and the House GOP had largely converted itself into an imbecilic clown show in terms of public perception, that Clinton enjoyed extremely high approval ratings right until his last day in office.
Nixon’s approval rating was above 50% reliably, peaking at 68% about 1500 days into his Presidency. Mostly due to the public…frankly approving of his governance and what was going on in the country. Then Nixon experienced a precipitous decline, obviously linked to Watergate. Nixon bottomed out at only 25% approval by the time he resigned, which obviously is why he resigned–that low approval rating translates into political capital and legislative backing, and is largely why Senate Republicans bailed on him, when they informed him, they would vote for his impeachment in the expected impeachment trial, he resigned rather than face the shame of being forcibly removed from office.
My theory is that we’ve entered an era of such intense, hyperpartisanship, in which both sides basically believe the political affiliation of the politician is 99% of the justification for supporting/opposing the politician, that no President can enjoy Nixon’s highs no matter how good they do. But conversely, they are never in danger of his lows.
Biden could prove me wrong there, which is why I think you should watch this page. If Biden’s rating falls down to really low levels, then it means we’re in a very bad era–where Republican hyper-partisanship means Republican leaders are not accountable at all for their bad actions, but Democrat leaders are. So far, Biden’s numbers are not in the range where I see that this is the case.