Every political post I see here, it seems that people are taking for granted that the Democrats will win the midterms in '26 and take back the White House in '28.
They seem to forget that Republicans will be using everything in their bag of dirty tricks to prevent it. Hell, SCOTUS just now issued a ruling weakening Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, and it’s now Christmas Day for every red state in the South.
And the Democrats need to inspire people with a charismatic, likeable candidate in '28 who is capable of making our lives better. Just being better than Donald Trump isn’t going to do it.
Don’t assume the Democrats are going to win. It’ll take hard work.
The assumptions about the 2026 midterms are disturbing to me and the confidence being express that the Democrats will win in 2028 looks borderline delusional to me.
The Democrats seem incapable of laying out to voters what they plan to do to help people with the economy, access to healthcare, make the wealthy pay their fair share of taxes and recalibrate the USAs blind subservience to Israel among a few issues that spring to mind.
Few Democrats seem capable of doing more than rant about Trump. The strategy of constant outrage won’t do much to win elections or connect with disaffected independents and others who voted for DJT in 2024 after supporting Biden in 2020.
Plus much of the field expected to run in '28 look like losers to me - Newsom and Harris are two of the worst options we have and yet they are likely to be frontrunners.
Yes, there is a LOT of hard work to get done to win in 2026. Focusing on 2028 comes after.
Nothing is ever guaranteed, of course. But it’s one of the most reliable rules in politics that the incumbent party will be in for some sort of setback, barring extraordinary circumstances.
Nothing we have seen suggests 2026 won’t be some sort of standard, expected rebuke for Trump/MAGA/Republicans. There isn’t an unusually booming-hot economy. There isn’t some sort of war crisis that was NOT caused by the ruling party that could trigger a rally-around-the-flag effect (which is why Bush didn’t suffer a setback in 2002.) The incumbent president is certainly some unusually-popular man with 70% approval ratings.
And as far as 2028 is concerned, Republicans have no popular successor in the wings. Nobody like JD Vance, not even within his own party.
That’s not going to make much difference in the 2026 midterms because most states already are into their election cycle. That is, the deadlines for registering to be a candidate are mostly past, some states have even already had primaries. So any further gerrymandering for most states will only apply to the 2028 election. Florida may be the only exception.
Why is everyone taking Democratic wins in ‘26 and ‘28 for granted?
We aren’t. It’s just after all the yelling about being a “doomer” people like me who think democracy is dead aren’t bothering to talk about it. I take it as a given that the Republicans will “win” no matter what the vote is. I still wouldn’t have bothered to say anything if the question hadn’t been outright asked here.
I think people are making educated forecasts based on current polling. That’s not taking the outcome for granted, even if the forecast turns out to be wrong.
If the Democrats are not given veto proof majorities then their ability to do anything about any of that is subject to, being voted down by the Republicans and certain Democrats, and the veto of Trump.
Thus is a future Republican presidency assured.
This thread is about people taking D victories in '26 and '28 for granted. Given that, your post confuses me. What you said isn’t related to the part of my post you quoted.
Let’s try it again - Until Democrats layout what they stand for (other than hatred of DJT) they run the risk to continue losing elections.
The Democrats have done a shit job articulating their vision for the country. Until they stop focusing on the outrageous things this Administration is doing and speak to how they plan to help voters, they run the risk of losing in '26 and in '28.
Then read what I said as, unless the the Democrats layout what they can actually accomplish, not grand visions that they can not, expect them to continue to lose.
That’s kind of a defaitist way of looking at things.
There was a time in politics when both sides would put forward proposals for reform, and later figure out how to get them done/financed. For the past 30 or so years, the mindset seems to be that they try to figure out what can be done and then look for a raform that will fit. I think this is one of many reasons trusts in politicians have declined; i.e. lack of visions.
You’re not going to drum up enthusiasm for your platform by saying “Vote for us and you will get a mobile home in a trailer park! Sorry, but it’s the best we can do in the current political landscape.” You do it by saying “We’re going to get you that mansion on the hill.” Voters will know that the aspiration will likely never come true, but it will communicate that the candidate at least has a dream of a better tomorrow.
The political right across the wealthier part of the world has been very successful in selling the dream that building a wall and deporting brown people will make everything better. I do hope that most voters for these RW populists are aware that it is an aspiration that will likely never be fully realized. But in seeing that their rulers are making efforts in that direction validates their choice.
“Opposing Trump” is the Democrats’ chief duty right now. That’s what they stand for, and what they should stand for. That’s how being in the opposition party works. Making a case/vision for America is for Presidential campaigns, not midterms. I think the midterm elections are almost entirely reliant on the actions and messaging of the President and his party, not anything the Democrats do or say (barring very, very unusual circumstances). This election will be about the war in Iran, inflation, gas prices, food prices, cost of living, authoritarianism, etc. It will be about Trump and his administration, and whether voters want that to continue or to be strongly opposed.
The generic polling is only favoring Democrats by about 7% right now. That could foretell a wave election but Republican skill at gerrymandering and the fact that 77 million people cast a ballot for the Trump “vision” makes me doubt things like a 40-seat margin in the House and a Senate majority.
Yeah, I would love Democratic candidates taking firm progressive stands that help the middle and lower classes and advance systemic election reforms but damn, we have so many people who are dug in on Trump nonsense that I can’t help but have November misgivings.
Seems to me that I saw a poll recently on the NYT that showed that Democrats have almost as high a disapproval rating with their own party as Trump has with his. Doesn’t bode well for incumbents, but perhaps a new crop of energetic candidates will replace the geezers that are running things.
Most midterms the party of the President loses seats, and right now not many seats need to swap. I think gas prices will be down by October, so that may lower D gains (voters have short memories). Even so, Trump’s approval isn’t high. Depends on what the Iran situation is.
IMHO Ds take the House (I’m 95% confident) , but Senate seems a stretch.
2028 is too far for me to predict – a lot can happen and I for one do not take it for granted.
The key to either party winning a national election is swing voters, since the country is almost equally divided between the two major parties. The polling I’ve seen bodes well for Democrats in 2026 because of the war with Iran, the economic results of the war, and the lack of trust in anything Trump says or does. As far as 2028 goes, until we know the candidates and the state of the economy two years hence, it’s anyone’s guess. However, if Independents swing away from Republicans as expected, the Democrats have a good chance of taking at least one house of Congress this time around. I’m just not sure it will make that much of a difference over the next two years. I expect that another failed impeachment attempt may be in the offing.