I think they even misplayed this one. Imagine what a young voter who was born after Vietnam sees when then run endless commercials featuring scratchy, jerky, black-and-white film of McCain during the war. It makes him look like he was a contemporary of Charlie Chaplin, or a leftover from their grandparent’s memories of the Great Depression. He might as well be saying, “Tippecanoe and John McCain Too!”.
About the war:
Americans became conflicted, though most didn’t want to just bolt and leave the place a free for all and in shambles. McCain and the pubs refused to even whisper about wrapping it up. They even implyed you were a traitor if you suggested ending our involvment.
Obama and the dem’s message of ending the war sensibly was met by most Americans with a sigh of relief.
Granted, they should be referring to Kenya instead of Niger when talking about Obama’s background, but I’m not sure that a few geography mistakes are what’s causing the moderates to bolt.
The choice of Palin along with the economic downturn have combined to doom his candidacy. By choosing Palin folks have really questioned his judgement and his Maverick-y image. The Republicans chose a candidate they thought would be able to stand up to the Dems on foregin poloicy and it is turning out to be a vote on the economy. McCain might be the worst candidate they could have chosen for that.
Plus when the economy and national psyche is good folks feel they can vote on “luxury” issues, like gay marriage, abortion, and such. But in times of percieved crisis they want someone who they feel can handle it in a calm and rational manner.
Palin did most of that painting herself. Some of Fey’s most effective lines were virtual Palin quotes.
William Kristol of the NYT in a column yesterday gave the bottom line: Obama is running an organized campaign, McCain’s campaign is not organized.
Obama’s black ass?
One big problem: McCain never grasped that his popularity with the media COULDN’T and wouldn’t last.
The media had loved him so much in 2000 when he was running against G.W. Bush, McCain assumed that would continue.
It never dawned on him that, once he had the nomination, the same journalists who’d fawned over him would remember that they were liberals, and turn against him with a vengeance.
And the media turned on John McCain even more so after eight years of G.W. Bush.
Didn’t want you to think this had gone unappreciated. 
The media, to the extent they’ve turned on McCain, didn’t do so for well after he had the nomination. What never dawned on McCain was that they weren’t going to give him a pass on repeatedly lying about things like the Bridge to Nowhere, cut off the access they used to have to him, and complaining constantly that the media loves Obama. Yeah, repeating blatant lies and making the media the scapegoat for when they start calling you on it isn’t exactly the best way to endear yourself to the media.
Basically, I think the main problem with McCain’s campaign, strategically, is that they haven’t been playing the long game. In July, they eroded Obama’s support a bit with all the “celebrity” and “presumptuous” nonsense. The Obama campaign didn’t counter it in strong terms, just slowly let the attacks speak more for the McCain campaign’s willingness to engage in dirty politics. Obama’s people knew they could take a July hit in polling numbers to slowly define McCain as a dishonorable campaigner by November. McCain has just been chasing after what the polls at the moment seem to indicate works.
Look at their VP picks. Biden didn’t do much to help Obama in the polls, even being seen as a tacit admission that Obama needs some help in foreign policy experience. But, really, long term, the people worrying about that are more likely to be reassured by Biden on the ticket, regardless of the fact that he might make Obama look a hair worse in comparison. For McCain’s part, he chose Palin, made a huge splash, and then people actually started getting to know her.
It’s no surprise that McCain is down 10 points in the polls now. His flip-flops on things like the conduct of the war, the economy and negative advertising are well-documented. McCain claims that he will lower taxes, yet he hasn’t explained what cuts he would make to balance the budget 
. He has been tied to a corrupt S & L guy, and has been formally admonished by the Senate Ethics committee for his bad judgement. He has been against government interference in the economy, and now seems to be for it.
In short, McCain is not the genuine Maverick he claims to be (90% agreement with party orthodoxy is not the definition of independent) Americans can spot a phoney a mile away.
Though I’m reluctant to call it a gamble due to linguistic baggage, I think Palin was a risk that didn’t pay off. I sincerely doubt McCain had any idea that she was so inept an interviewee or that she suffered from such a high level of myopia. Instead, here was an evangelical (+) woman (++) with a solid family life (+++) and traditional Republican-associated values (++++) who just happened to hunt(+++++). That she challenged members of her own party (+…) and was a complete outsider supported the “maverick” image. She rose from small town mayor to governor in a relatively short span of time, and had (at least on paper) energy credentials (didn’t McCain pick her as gasoline prices were spiking?). It’s clear why so many Republicans find her a great candidate and don’t quite understand how she is a liability. She should have propelled McCain into the White House.
I think most of the above was sufficient to convince McCain to pick her, and he didn’t think he needed to delve deeper than “do you have any scandals I should be aware of?” type questions. Perhaps he got an inkling of her narrowness, but either never suspected its depth (shallowness?), didn’t think it would be difficult to overcome in a short span of time, or thought it could be managed.
Regardless, while she energized the base (crucially important), it seems her strongest—her only—strength was psyching up those who had faith in her to make the right decision based on fuzzy background. Not only did this seem to do nothing for the non-party faithful, it seems to have turned a lot of them off. Even worse, she scared a non-zero number of Democrats into action.
Then there’s the negativity. Perhaps it’s because I still like to think of McCain in 2000 terms, I think his vacilliatory attack strategy was based on a hodgepodge of advice, not him leading a team of political hacks. If he’d started out and maintained the so-called civil tone he thought he was setting early on, this would have been a much different campaign season. Furthermore, I don’t think he was so comfortable with the political theater in the way he’s been acting it. For example, the whole “suspend my campaign” bit came off as inordinately disingenuous to most of the non-base electorate.
And, of course, there are the string of gaffes that mean much less than the hole he dug for himself afterwards. To off the top of my head are the “fundamentals” statement and the Spanish snub. I find it hard to believe that many outside the base really bought into the fundamentals=workers explanation, and I’m not so sure even the base truly believe it. Same thing with the Spanish thing — had he just owned up to the non-Earth shattering confusion, he wouldn’t really be forced to say such ludicrous things with a straight face. I think he misses the ol’ McCain (about as much as I do), and isn’t really comfortable in this role.
What? Maybe this is a chicken-and-egg thing. I don’t recall the media fawning over him so much as having a good rapport based on the Straight Talk marketing campaign. They could ask him questions —tough questions— and he’d answer them with, you guessed it, straight talk. It was great, and why a lot of us were much happier with a McCain nomination than, say, Guliani. But then the STE pulled over, and from my vantage point he went the base-appeasing Limbaugh route, painting the so-called “MSM” as an enemy of the people. Of course it could have happened the other way around, but I’m having a hard time coming up with a narrative.
I think the pendulum is swinging away from Limbaugh for the time being, especially with the last mid-term elections going as they did. After eight years and all the crap that came with it, McCain’s movement to the right (e.g., embracing the religious wing, Rovian tactics[sup]*[/sup]) is out of synche with much of the electorate.
[sup]*Not really exclusive to the right, but compared to Obama’s campaign it has a definite right wing association. Not that Obama has run a uber-positive campaign, just that his strategic choices have been different. [/sup]
Omigawd! You mean to tell us that McCain should just get up off his duff and run some attack ads?
You’re a genius, man! Attack him!! True or false, what diff, everyone does it–but McCain never thought of this simple device that the public adores. Attack ads. So simple and yet–McCain hasn’t even tried this tactic! What a dunce he is. What a genius you are!!
You have to look back at the primary campaign. McCain didn’t have to run one. Everybody else imploded. While Obama had to run a tough primary against a credible opponent, McCain just had to say POW enough and the waters parted before him. Once nominated, he seemed to buy into his inevitability. Of course he was going to win, he was a POW. He refused to believe the public would get behind someone he so thoroughly despised. It wasn’t until the Palin spike came crashing down that he realized he was in a fight. Then he thought he could just win with negative ads, Democrats in the past were always beaten by those. Now he’s got an issue in Obama’s wheelhouse that he doesn’t know a blessed thing about. All his standard lines- POW, lower taxes, earmarks, don’t mean diddly squat. He has been completely unable to adjust, his attempts look like wild mood swings more than reasoned approaches.
The irony is that Conservatives still don’t get it. I was reading an article yesterday where the Conservative consensus is that McCain is losing because he hasn’t been true enough to the Conservative cause. They feel he should have embraced Conservative values more strongly and openly and attacking Obama more forcibly and negatively for not having those values. It doesn’t seem to have struck these people that people are making a choice and are apparently rejecting these ideas. If the voters though McCain wasn’t Conservative enough, would they be choosing Obama instead? The Conservatives can’t understand that it’s Conservatism that’s being rejected not John McCain.
McCain was chosen by voters over candidates like Romney, Guiliani, Thompson, Huckabee, Tancredo, Brownback, Hunter, and Keyes. He was the least conservative Republican in the pack. That should have been a message to the Republicans. But for some reason, once he was nominated, McCain fell for the argument that he needed to be a Conservative to win the election.
McCain has changed. Or, more specifically, how he campaigns has changed.
I really liked him in the 2000 primaries. He said what he believed, even if was contrary to his own best interests or his party leadership. He worked well with folks from the other party. He refrained from partisanship and personal attacks. He struck me as honest and straightforward.
Flash ahead eight years, and it’s different. I blame his handlers and his inability to disregard their campaign advice. Too many attacks, too much negativity. Shameless pandering, like the nomination of Palin. I think in a year or so he’ll look back at this campaign and regret that he allowed himself to be trapped in the same kind of campaign that the Republicans have run for the last 20 years, and he should have just been himself.
(By the way, I think a lot of your criticisms about Obama are just plain distortions).
I think there’s an After School Special or Teen-Angst movie in here somewhere. Not the take-off-the-glasses-lose-the-ponytail kind of vapidity — more the dude-whose-kinda-an-outsider-who-starts-taking-lessons-from-the-teen-masher-in-order-to-get-in-with-the-girls-but-at-the-end-of-the-day-learns-he-should-really-just-be-himself.
I think everyone (politicians especially) has the potential to be a dick. McCain should have just stuck to being his own kind of dick rather than haphazardly trying to adopt the ways of the date-raping quarterback. I think he picked up anti-Obama votes but relatively few pro-McCain votes (thinking moderates and switchers here — those of us who early on thought they might end up voting for him).