This may be the last time any US representative visits Taiwan. China seems determined to be the new leader in that region.
I don’t see the leadership in Washington to strengthen our Navy. It would require a lot of money.
I don’t know about imminent, but China has been making some movements that are concerning, mostly about building up their military and amping up the rhetoric. Though a lot of people see Hong Kong as the target. Sure, it’s part of China, but it’s has some level of autonomy, and China has been gunning hard to remove that.
You are sadly and badly mistaken. China threatens to retake Taiwan by force on a pretty regular basis. China has been carrying out airspace and sea space violations in the past few weeks. There is a lot more.
When the People’s Daily (mouthpiece of the government) comes out and threatens to go full mental if Pelosi visits Taiwan, then they threw down the gauntlet and painted themselves in a corner. What speak of the the House would back down from such a silly ass threat?
I am no Navy expert by any means (Dopers like iiandyiiii and robby could do us the favor) but I don’t see what the US Navy needs strengthening in the Pacific for at the time, other than perhaps a few more SSNs. There are as many carriers as need be (and a war with China might not require any surface combatants anyway.) P-8s can do plenty of aerial patrolling. The Navy seems to be in as good shape there as one could reasonably want.
High dudgeon is the only stance the Chinese government knows how to do if anyone dares imply that the world doesn’t revolve around them.
I had no idea so many other politicians had visited recently. So odd that I never heard such a fuss before Nancy Pelosi decided to go.
I’m very glad she went and that she didn’t do it quietly.
Incorrect. Newt Gringrich visited when he was Speaker, although that was in 1997.
The U.S. for many years has done a tap dance around our relationship with Taiwan. We have an important economic relationship but do not formally recognize them as a sovereign nation, due to our “One China” official policy. Neither country has an embassy in the other (although there are offices that act just like embassies). Until Trump phoned their president early in his term, the last U.S. president to talk to the president of Taiwan was Richard Nixon. You may recall that Trump’s call cause quite a bit of a flap, and that was just a phone call.
For Pelosi to not only visit Taiwan but meet with their president creates the impression that we recognize their sovereignty, so we are kind of talking out of both sides of our mouth. China is backed into a corner and has to react, although military action is not justified.
As others have said, you are clearly wrong in placing the blame on the US.
China is openly hostile to Taiwan and regularly sends its warplanes into Taiwanese air defense zone.
Pretty much all the experts say there is a real danger of China initialing war with Taiwan, and for good reason. China has repeatedly threatened Taiwan with war. From an article in the BBC:
In his expressed views, simply having the DPP win the next presidential election may trigger a preemptive war from China. As the article acknowledges, the statement is self-serving, but many people in Taiwan believe it’s a real threat.
This ignores the realities of China’s internal politics. Xi has built himself up as a strong nationalist and ignoring what nationalist in China view as a deep insult is something he obviously feels that he can’t ignore, as it would make him look weak.
This is how countries get into war; when the “smart move” is contrary to the interests of the individual or a particular group. Look at how Suddam wouldn’t refute having weapons of mass destruction even though that would have been the “smart move” internationally. He had his internal politics to consider.
Previously, Gingrich visited as Speaker of the House in 1997.
Damn, I’m agreeing with @Little_Nemo on something! Absolutely! This needs to be crystal clear to them.
Well, it depends on what the top of the priority list means. I am completely convinced that if Taiwan gets too close to where China draws its red lines that it would be war. If you mean the priority list for immediate action, then maybe, but preventing Taiwan’s declared independence is Xi’s absolute priority.
A lot of commentators / analysists have suggested that Xi wants to be the leader who reunites China and Taiwan. I’ve seen the suggestion that since he’s headed for his third term then it actually lowers the pressure.
True, but if we’re willing to defend them against Chinese aggression, then we’re also giving the impression we recognize their sovereignty.
I understand why we have to walk on eggshells concerning China, but either Taiwan is a friend, or it isn’t. Biden recently signaled that we would aid Taiwan (ala Ukraine) should China try to force its will on the island.
I have visited Taipei, and most people there hold the United States in high regard because we are one of the few countries willing to stand up to China. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan wasn’t an act of aggression, no matter how often Beijing says it is.
So basically, the red line for China to invade is a declaration of independence by Taiwan, and by US officials like Pelosi going to Taiwan, the US is giving Taiwan the signal that it will have its back in a war, which increases the likelihood that Taiwan (via the DPP party in power) will declare independence (since they are more confident of backing from the US), which gets us closer to China’s red line, i.e. to war.
Look, fuck China, but I don’t see why we should be stumbling into war over a dick-measuring competition b/w China and the US.
We should be doing everything we can to deter China from invading Taiwan. That includes shows of strength such as freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea and floating carrier groups in the region, shows of political solidarity with Taiwan such as Pelosi’s visit, and maintaining a military strong enough to deter China.
As for why we should care… Aside from human rights, Taiwan is a major supplier of semiconductors and other electronics to the world. TSMC, for example, is the largest semiconductor manufacturer in the world, and they have the most advanced computer chip fab. Intel was caught napping by TSMCs 7nm chip process, which is why AMD has been eating Intel’s lunch for the last few years, gaining 7% market share on Intel in just 2022 alone. TSMC also manufacturers Apple’s A12 chip.
There is currently a chip shortage that is causing havoc in the supply chain. If China invades Taiwan, we would be crippled. This is undoubtedly one of the hidden reasons why there was bipartisan support for the CHIPS act. A lot of people are realizing that Taiwan is critical to U.S. high tech industry, and Taiwan is vulnerable.
Not only that, but that they can tell the US Speaker of the House what to do. Which is something we certainly should not allow. This is in the same vein as those Freedom of Navigation exercises where we send a warship through international waters that the Chinese claim as their own. They bluster, but never actually DO anything.
I do agree that the timing of this is not optimal. But it’ll end up being nothing. The Chinese aren’t stupid enough to do anything to the SoH while in Taiwan, so they’ll make some noise, and then not actually do anything.
I sure hope you are right, but almost every major war has been preceded or even caused because too many people said, “No one would be dumb enough to go to war now.”
China has many problems. Their economy is stumbling, they are facing a demographic crunch, their real estate sector is imploding and their banking system is in trouble.
The party’s legitimacy is based on the notion that no others could possibly do better, plus appeals to Chinese nationalism. That makes it somewhat fragile. And we have very little visibility into the internal power struggles in the government.
In the meantime, the west is now weaker than they’ve ever been. Europe is a mess, and America is fractured and looking inwards. That’s never been a good thing for world peace. Xi could see this time as his one opportunity, just as Russia has. And there’s a chance that they are coordinating as part of a larger strategy we haven’t seen play out yet. We should worry.
Taiwan is among the least warlike nations. My sense is that people there often want small steps towards greater recognition, but almost everyone is fine with not crossing the red line of an independence declaration.
The only thing that could lead to a Declaration of Independence is a Chinese landing on Taiwanese beaches. That would render the current make-believe pointless.
I remember in the 80s all the really popular toys were made in Taiwan …
Again, you simply don’t understand the greater picture and am ignoring points I’ve posted and are wrong that there is simply one red line.
It is believed by many international experts that Xi wants to annex Taiwan regardless of whatever else happens or however nicely Taiwan tries to play. Full stop. China claims Taiwan and has increased international pressure to isolate Taiwan with measures such as preventing Taiwan from joining WHO or participating in the Olympics under it’s own name. They even prevents sales of Covid vaccines to the government of Taiwan.
Even if Taiwan never declares independence, China seems determined to weaken it and isolate it from other countries so that they can for the annexation at some stage. No one knows how soon that would be, but it’s not 20 years away. Military experts debate the ability of the PLA and the timelines, but many think it’s possible within a few years.
The constant, often daily incursions into Taiwanese air defense space seems to be designed to wear out the Taiwanese air forces. They have designed their navy for one, and only one purpose, to cross the straits.
You can see the areas which China has started firing live missiles all around Taiwan, including off the east coast of Taiwan.
After the US pulled out of Afghanistan, China started pushing rumors that the US would abandon Taiwan as well. Fortunately, US support for Ukraine has helped reassure Taiwanese about its international commitments.
The US needs to let China know it will support Taiwan, that more than anything is the best deterrent.
The reality is that Taiwan is a sovereign independent country. Pretending this isn’t true is a concession the United States has made to China to maintain a peaceful relationship. It’s a relatively minor concession that doesn’t affect us in any substantial way.
China should recognize our willingness to make this minor concession (pretending Taiwan isn’t a country) does not indicate we would make a major concession (standing by while China invaded Taiwan).
Agree. Not saying war will happen, but right before 2/24 there were so many people (myself included) who said “Russia won’t attack because it doesn’t make sense for Russia to attack.” And World War I made no “sense” either - no reason for a single assassin’s bullet to kill 20 million.
I still see an overwhelming number of takes in the media that argue China won’t attack because it “doesn’t make sense” for China to attack.