The lateste tape (ostensibly from Al-Queda’s second-in-command) leads to the question:
why hasn’t the head goon (OBL) sent a message out? To me, this suggests two possibilities:
-OBL is in fact dead. This is likely, because no pictures of him have been circulated for a while. It may well be that he was killed in the initial attack on Afghanistan, and one of his sons was actually the voice heard on the tapes
-OBL is a captive: possibly of Pakistan (he is Gen. Mussharrraf’s only bargaining chip with the USA. OBL would be held until the USA agrees on more aid to Pakistan.
Ofcourse, OBL might be hiding in a “safe house” -this could be anywhere in the ME, but most likely in some remote village.
In any case, I think Al Queda has been dealt quite a blow…they haven’t been able to strike inside the USA, so I doubt we will see much of them from now on…or will we? :eek:
He’s either too sick, dead, or wants us to think one of those. I find your theory that he’s a captive interesting. Although not very plausible, I wouldn’t put it past our “good friend” and “trusted ally” Mussharrraf to pull that off if he had the chance.
As far as AQ, they’ll strike the US when they’re good and ready. What’s going to stop them? Preemptive strikes?
I suggest an elaboration of 3rd possibility off your safe house scenario: OBL is no longer in Pakistan and/or in operational control of the Al Queda remnant organization. Perhaps this suggests that Zarhawi is running stuff and OBL has been smuggled to a safe house, and only 1-2-3 people know where he is. To preserve his security, he doesn’t have vistors, even trusted lieutenants, running back and forth making and distributing tapes.
I agree with your point about a damaged Al Queda – damaged but not toothless – I expect they will strike more – hopefully though the days of massive casualty attacks are gone. Hopefully. I have often maintained that a 1993 WTC-style attack or a Hamas style suicide bombing in NYC/DC by Al Queda actually to a certain extent means we ARE winning the war – it demonstrates the HUGE Casualty massive attack (9-11, hitting a Nuclear Power Plant, WMD) are too hard if not impossible for Al Queda to pull off now-- so they have come down to 1-2 guys hitting a subway station.
I guess i disagree with your picture scenerio proving something- Zarhawi hasn’t been photoed either – and we know he is around. I think they may have altered thier appearance and don’t need to advertise the dye job or gain/loss of 60 lbs
Usama is the walrus.
Points to existence of a world beyond the borders of the US of A
I don’t follow guy. Can you elaborate?
Al Queda have pulled off several ‘massive casuality attacks’ since the World Trade Centre strikes. I don’t think that there is any evidence that their ability to do this has been in any way impaired.
Like blowing up Australians…
If one person calls you an a$$ pay him no mind – if two do get youerself a saddle.
Still I can’t see where anything I said could be construed as being Americo-centric or couldn’t equally apply to London or Melbourne or Jakarta. I certainly didn’t intend that.
[bjimmmy** seems to be closest. Whether Bin Laden is alive or dead is irrelevant to the functioning of Islamist terrorism.
Kill him and you create a martar. Defeat him and you create a martar. Withdraw and you create a martar. What do you do?
REPLACE all that with MARTYR***
Stoooooopid copy-and-paste…
Capture him, parade him around in an orange jumpsuit and bullet proof vest, arraign him before a U.S. (NOT world!) court. Then you don’t have a martyr, you have a pathetic criminal.
Nope. You still have a martyr. And also you have somebody tried by a court which has no jurisdiction.
If you listen to the tinfoil hat folks, Osama is in a cell somewhere, waiting to ba “captured” in late October.