Why was the Avro Arrow Cancelled Really?

I’m in a mood today. I was posting about the state of the Canadian Forces due to Liberal Government over in GQ when in my own thread I brought up the subject of the Avro Arrow. That started me thinking. I know Diefenbaker cancelled the Arrow, so I did a little googling which you all would have told me to do anyway had I posted this with my misconception that he too was a liberal. Imagine my surprise (and relief at not having embarrassed myself,) when I discovered that “the Dief” was Progressive Conservative! So. now what. Why did he cancel it? I’ve done some research and discovered that the theories on exactly why he did it are many and varied. Conspiracy theorists would have us believe that the Americans forced him into it to stop Canada from overtaking them in aircraft development. Which we would have. Some other and (probably) more sane people tell us that the cancellation was due to the, then popular belief that missiles were becoming the standard weapon and that jet fighter aircraft would soon become irrelevant. I have it on good authority from an engineer who actually worked on the project that it was cancelled because when A. V. Roe heard that the government was going to cancel his Arrow project he walked right in to Diefenbakers office and proclaimed “you wouldn’t DARE!” Apparently Diefenbaker was known to be fairly bull headed and so, he did. Secondary to my original question is that even if we can come up with a reason for the Arrow to be cancelled, why was it necessary to destroy the aircraft already produced???

Buliwyf

This site seems to have loads of info on the subject. Fascinating stuff.

Avro Arrow

There’s plenty of evidence to support the idea that strategists saw the missile as king; look at the hurried retrofitting of guns to many aircraft of the era that were originally designed solely to carry missiles. Ditto with the relative renaissance in the idea of Naval Gunfire Support; there was a long period where missile-armed ships were seen as masters of the waves. I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to see it as a plausible reason for a government to drop expenditure in one military project.

As for the “why not keep the aircraft already produced” argument, what would you use them for? They would have required separate training programs, separate logistical support services and maintenance and potentially separate tactical doctrines. Would the costs involved in maintaining them have been worth it?

No, the Americans did not stop us from building the Arrow. That’s a silly myth; there’s not a shred of evidence to support it, and actually the U.S. assisted in testing the Arrow’s engine (which exploded and shot parts through the fuselage of a USAF B-47.) Why would the Americans really care?

It’s often said that either (1) The Americans didn’t want us bulding the Arrow because then we could intercept the U-2, or (2) the Americans didn’t want us building the Arrow because they wanted all the world’s best planes, or (3) they didn’gt want us building the Arrow because they didn’t trust us, or maybe (4) because they wanted to sell us their planes. All are nonsense, and betray the inability of Canadians TODAY to understand what things were like in 1959. Canada was not the dithering, casually anti-American nation it is now - Canada was an absolutely staunch anti-Communist power, better dead than Red, the whole nine yards. In 1959, it would have seemed utterly ridiculous to anyone to suggest that Canada building a fighter plane was a threat to the United States, or somehow a threat to the U-2. The threat, the ONLY threat, was the USSR.

It’s also pretty unlikely that A.V. Roe ever walked into John Deifenbaker’s office, seeing as how A.V. Roe was as dead as a doornail when Diefenbaker cancelled the plane. Roe died in 1958, and so far as I know he wasn’t in Canada at the time anyway. A.V. Roe Canada was not the same as the original A.V.Roe company.

  1. The primary reason the Arrow was cancelled was monetary; it was becoming a horrid white elephant. At the point of cancellation the cost of Arrow development had more than doubled over what was originally budgeted - and the plane STILL wasn’t even close to being ready.

Part of the problem, aside from simple cost overruns, was that Avro and the government had hopelessly bungled the decision over what avionics and radar system the plane would be equipped with, spending millions of dollars without actually producing anything that worked. At the time the plane was cancelled it still did not have a weapons or radar system and its planned weapons bays had never been tested. The Arrow was originally planned to be armed with nuclear missiles, the Sparrow-2 air-to-air burst missile, which was then cancelled by the U.S. Navy.

Development continued in Canada at enormous cost, but eventually the Sparrow-2 and its ASTRA firecontrol system were given up on, and Hughes systems were planned for purchase, which meant another pile of money. Furthermore, the much-bragged-about Orenda Iroquois engine had never even been mounted in the plane; prototypes were using a Pratt and Whitney engine. So what you basically had completed was an airframe and an engine that hadn’t been tested together, without any weapons, radar, or electronics even designed. The RCAF believed, with justification, that the Arrow’s budget would triple or even quadruple before it was ready.

Originally the Arrow had been budgeted at $200 million (for development) By 1959 it was above $400 million, and still a long way from production.

So here’s the shocker: The Military Didn’t Want The Arrow. The RCAF believed it was a white elephant and just wasn’t worth the dough. The Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff, Charles Foulkes, was absolutely convinced it was a waste of money.

The plane also had no foreign buyers - the U.S. wanted to buy from its own aircraft industry, and the plane was unsuitable for European needs. It was unlikely the project would be financially viable without foreign buyers; the plan had been, originally, to partially finance the project by selling to NATO allies.

What had originally been forcast as a $200 million project WITH foreign sales was looking like it was going to end up being an $800 million or more project WITHOUT foreign sales. In 1958, the military projected that in addition to the money already spent, at least another $800 million would have to be poured into it. It was becoming a financial boondoggle of historic proportions.

  1. In addition to the enormous cost overruns, the military WAS of the belief that the Arrow did not fit Canadian military needs.

The criticism that the Arrow was built to shoot down bombers in an era is ICBMs is a valid one. In and of itself, Arctic interception was a valuable ability; CF-18s were intercepting Soviet bombers right up to 1992. But the Arrow was built for nothing else. Look at a picture of it; it’s an ENORMOUS plane, with thin wings unsuitable for carrying ordnance. It could only carry air-to-air missiles in its side weapons pods - it didn’t even carry a gun, a common design decision at the time that turned out to be a dreadful mistake.

The Arrow might have been able to intercept bombers, assuming they ever got it to work, but it wasn’t suitable for any other mission profile. It would have been next to useless in Europe, where it was assumed the next war would be fought against Soviet forces. Canadian officers were understandably worried that their entire air force budget would be expended on a plane that could not even be used in the main theatre of war.

And with ICBMs arriving in the scene, the interception mission was becoming less important. It was still important, but not so much so that the RCAF was willing to spend EVERY PENNY of aircraft capital costs on the Arrow; they were better off buying cheaper planes that could do more, which, unsurprisingly, is precisely what they ended up doing. The fact that Avro refused to listen to the military and tried to cover up things they were doing didn’t help the relationship; by 1958 the military and the company didn’t trust each other any farther than you could throw a fat general.
Some resources for you that will tell you more than web sites:

THE ARROW, James Dow, J. Lorimer press, 1979: the definitive work.
FALL OF AN ARROW, Murray Peden, Canada’s Wings, 1978.
SHUTTING DOWN THE NATIONAL DREAM, Greig Stewart, McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1988.
THERE NEVER WAS AN ARROW, E.K. Shaw, Steel Rail Educational, 1981.

As to why the prototypes were busted up… that was pretty common practice at the time. Can’t let any Russkies get a hold of them!

I will be getting those books you mentioned RickJay. I’ve always wondered about what happened though as you pointed out, I’ve never considered it from the angle of someone living during the late 50’s. A few questions though.

  1. would you agree that the Arrow was a large source for all the supersonic aircraft that followed it? Many of the systems that went into it were custom designed from the ground up by Canadians. While the idea and general design behind it were perhaps flawed the technology was pretty damned impressive for the time. I would also point out that once out of work we suffered a “brain drain” of immense cost to our countries engineering pool. Many went to work for NASA, and U.S. aircraft manufacturers. It’s entirely concievable that elements of the Arrow found their way into the CF-18 Hornet design we ended up buying.

  2. unless I’m very much mistaken. Arrow 106 was supposedly fitted with the iriqouis engine. Why didn’t they give it a test flight? Just to see what she could do. perhaps irrelevant to the debate but something I’m interested in.

  3. What do you think of the myth that one Arrow got away? personally I think it’s bull. But apparently there is a very little bit of supporting evidence. people heard the engines that day that were very distinctive. That kind of thing.

Buliwyf

And I of course meant 206

Buliwyf

Also, what do you think of this man’s thoughts?

link

Buliwyf

The Arrow was simply a pretty good aircraft for its time, but it was very large, and not suited for much of anything other than a mission that was gradually fading away.

But it is true that a lot of engineers from the Canadian aerospace industry went to the U.S. Where else were they going to go? We used to be a major engineering force in aviation. Now we’ve got Bombardier. All those engineers had to go somewhere.

No, I wouldn’t.

The most similar plane to the Arrow that ever made it into service was the MiG-25 Foxbat, and that’s a stretch. I cannot think of many Allied planes that were much similar to the Arrow. Look, what made the Arrow unique?

  1. SPEED. The Arrow was unquestionably a fast plane. But building fast planes was hardly a unique effort, and by the early 60s fighters had gotten about as fast as they are today.

  2. DELTA WING DESIGN. Not really used much anymore, is it?

  3. INTERNAL WEAPONS BAYS. Not used much on any fighter until today’s stealthy fighters, and you can’t say they got that idea from Avro.

The brain drain is certainly true, but there’s nothing about the Arrow that would suggest to me that it was any more a predecessor for today’s technology than, say, the F-104.

To be quite honest, people are upset over the wrong plane. The REAL loss was the Avro Jetliner, which the Liberal government of Louis St. Laurent cancelled in order to have Avro concentrate on the Arrow. THAT aircraft would be have been enormously economically beneficial to Canada - the world was ready for jet transportation, and we blew it big time because we had the world’s first practical jetliner. The Jetliner would have brought substantial foreign sales and could have spawned a civilian aircraft industry. Everyone remember the Arrow because it’s a phallic symbol to end all phallic symbols, but the Jetliner was the true loss.

It was St. Laurent’s government, not Diefenbaker’s, that truly screwed the pooch. Cancelling the Jetliner to get the Arrow was stupid.

IIRC, they just didn’t get to that point before the project was canned.

It’s bull. I mean, you can’t steal a freakin’ fighter jet and just have it vanish. There are very few airstrips in Canada where you could have even landed it.