Why are Russia and China reluctant to impose sanctions on Iran?
Thanks,
Rob
Basically, because they want to be on good terms with Iran.
Not quite sure this can be answered in GQ, as their real reasons are probably well-hidden state diplomatic secrets.
However, for the more skeptical out there, the likeliest reason is the simplest: they both want Iran to have nuclear weapons, they just don’t want their hands dirty enabling it.
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Power politics. Russia and China are happiest when the United States and its allies are otherwise occupied-- busy superpowers can’t make trouble elsewhere. What better way for them to cause trouble then enable Iran to cause trouble?
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Energy politics. Russia gets benefits by sharing nuclear technology for a price with Iran. Also, if the price of oil were to spike, Russia stands to make a profit.
Now, the Chinese aren’t interested in having the price of oil go up-- but they are interested in obtaining “most favored nation” status from as many energy-producing powers as possible. They know that Saudi Arabia and Iraq are solidly in the Western camp, but Iran isn’t. Help Iran out, and Iran can help the Chinese out down the road as their energy demands grow. Plus, Iran is a major oil provider to the Pacific Rim-- if the Chinese wish to leverage (read: bully) Japan and South Korea, what better way than being in good with Iran?
Bottom line: a nuclear Iran is a low-cost way for the Russians and Chinese to get what they want. It’s perhaps a shortsighted way-- both nations have their issues with Muslim minorities in their countries, and creating more trouble in the Muslim world may cause blowback down the road-- but both Russia and China may think that the Iranians are so eager for nuclear weapons they’ll get them anyway… why not “get in on the ground floor” and get on Iran’s good side in pursuit of the benefits (to them) of when Iran has nuclear weapons?
Because Iran produces oil and The Russians and Chinese like oil.
They’re waiting to see what they can get out of it.
Because the US has been jumping the sanctions gun like it’s going out of style.
So Russia and China aren’t worried about an exchange in their back yard? I guess the Chinese already have India and Pakistan to worry about and Moscow is buffered from the potential battlefield by thousands of miles of troublesome minorities, so maybe it’s a wash.
Please explain. I can’t say as I know what good sanctions really do but it seems pretty clear that Iran is being disingenuous.
China likes Iranian oil, and China is also a major supplier of the Iranian army, and has a lot of economic investment in Iran.
Who benefits from the sanctions other than the US, Israel and their Gulf state allies? Certainly not China or Russia. Both actually have thriving trade with Iran, what’s in it for them to disrupt this?
No, disingenuous is when you tell someone they can’t have nuclear weapons, when you have 100’s at your disposal.
They probably aren’t, it’s all for show.
The Russians and the Chinese don’t want any more nuclear armed nations than are there now. They also know the USA will most likely stop Iran on its own, so why join in and get Iran mad at them when the result will be the same.
Look at it like this, Jordan officially hates Isreal (OK now they have a peace treaty but back then), but Jordan was actively giving information to the Israelis. Jordan even warned Israel of the Yom Kippur attack, but wasn’t believed.
Jordon doesn’t much care for Israel, but they also know if Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iraq are spending all their time worried about Israel, they aren’t gonna be bothering Jordan.
You see what goes on in public often has nothing to do with what is going on behind the scenes
Iran’s not going to send bombs in the direction of Russia or China – that would be suicidal. Any missiles that Iran has (or will have) come with an Israeli address on them, and neither Russia nor China are great friends of Israel – partly because they want to stay on good terms with the Muslim world. (They don’t want to stir up their own Muslim minorities any more than necessary, and they don’t care about the Jewish minorities.)
We’ve had our panties in a twist over Iran’s “Islamofascism” ever since 9/11. Every little thing that could possibly misinterpreted as ‘evidence’ of an Iranian atomic bomb program is so misinterpreted. The country when down that path once with Saddam’s WMD’s, to our disastrous cost. With Iran, we should go with an evidence based response, rather than the ‘gut feelings’ of whoever yells the loudest in the press.
Are you saying we should take the Iranians at their word that they are merely doing all this for peaceful purposes?
One detail not much mentioned in the press - Iran’s oil fields have ben deteriorating since 1980, through lack of planning, lack of technology, and lack of funds. They are reaching the point where they can’t meet their own needs. Their economy is in the toilet.
Nuclear power (the peaceful stuff) is a cheap and effective way to generate power without burning oil. As a bonus, it can help make nuclear weapons, and even if that takes a while, it can make Iran seen big bad and dangerous. That gives Iran a lot of prestige and respect in its big bad and dangerous neighbourhood.
This really should be in Great Debates. Anyone who knows the real answer won’t divulge it here.
Russia and China don’t want Iran to have nuclear weapons. If Iran did acquire them, it would reduce their leverage as regional powers. But Russia and China also have a lot of trade with Iran and don’t want to curtail that, either. So they let the US be the “bad cop” to their “good cop”. In the end, Iran will not have nukes, but will still look favorably at Russia and China. It’s a win-win scenario for them.
I wish the US could call Russia’s and China’s hand, “okay, we give up, Iran can do whatever it wants”. Then Russia and China would have to play bad cop for a while, because neither of them wants another nuclear rival. But the US can’t do that, because a nuclear Iran hurts our interests more than theirs. And Russia and China know it.
That actually is mentioned in the press, because that is how I know about it. That said, it strains credulity to hear they are enriching above 20% so they can treat cancer patients.
That said, I think this question has been answered about as well as it can be in GQ.
Thanks,
Rob
No, I’m saying that the sanction pushing mania that America’s been under since 2001 is of dubious utility, and rests on highly debatble pre-assumptions of evil intent on the part of Iran.
This is what I understood to be China’s main reason. China generally tries to take a position of abstention from interfering in international affairs, particularly countries with which it has crucial economic ties like Iran, and particularly when those economic ties concern energy. Personally I think another reason is that China doesn’t feel nearly as threatened by the prospect of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons: the US and the western world have allies in the region that have a lot of political influence in the west and that would be seriously threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran. Most notably Israel, but also Saudi Arabia and Iraq.