The first Kentucky Derby that I remember was the one with Native Dancer. I couldn’t tell you the name of the winner.
As others have mentioned, the full $60 million is likely dependent on Big Brown winning the Triple Crown. Other news sites mentioned the deal was for $40 million, that might have been the bottom number, if Big Brown didn’t win the Preakness or Belmont.
Because the trainer has been so quick to downgrade the competition that Big Brown has faced this year, saying the horses in the Derby and Preakness were very weak competition, Big Brown may need to race in against older horses later in the year to really prove his is a great horse, worthy of a $100,00.00+ stud fee.
If he retires after the Belmont, there will always be a question as to whether he really was a great horse, or just a good horse who was lucky to be running against a weak three year old crop.
So the connections will likely say they are running the horse for the good of the sport, to create excitement and give the fans what they want, to see a great horse run and win against the best. But in reality it is more likely a business decision, a need to prove the horse is worth a high stud fee. Big Brown’s own pedigree really isn’t very impressive, so the horse’s record is what they will need to sell.
I think the stud farm who bought the breeding rights will end up losing money on the deal. The horse will have to produce winners early on in order for his stud fee to stay high, and I don’t think his pedigree will be producing much. Many will likely stay away from him, thinking he may be a “freak” like Secretariat. A horse that just had all the right genes come together to create something special, but that special combination not likely to be passed down.
For years Secretariat was thought to be a dud as a stud. None of his kids were doing very well. It wasn’t for many more years that Secretariat’s value as a sire was known, his abiliy to produce top broodmares. His daughters are responsible for producing many great sires like Storm Cat, AP Indy, Gone West.
It is thought now that some things are passed on only through the dam, like having a very large heart. Big Brown is said to have a very large heart, inherited from his dam. He would only be able to pass the large heart gene on to his daughters though, when bred to a mare who also carries the large heart gene, so the chance of his having a son who can run like he can is not very high.
This is all debated among those who study pedigrees, I am not sure how much actual “proof” there is on these theories. But if I was looking to spend $100,000.00 on a stud fee, I would sure rather go with a proven sire, rather than gamble on a sire who hasn’t shown he can pass on the good stuff to his runners.
But for now, I will just wish a safe trip to Big Brown and all the other horses and jockeys. As much as horse fans would like to see a Triple Crown winner, what we most want is for all to come back safely.