Will Asad Pull an Idi Amin?

I just heard that the Syrian Defense Minister was assassinated (suicide bomber). Assad’s army still seems reliable-but there have been defections among some units.
I’m sure that Assad has a loyal “Praetorian Guard” unit that would fight to the death…but you never know.
In any event, what are the odds that Assad would leave (taking a substantial pile of cash with him) one night?
He doesn’t strike me as the type willing to die, trying to hold on…a nice villa in the South of France would be more his style.

I wonder if his dentistry certifications are still valid?

Where would he go? Given the allegations of major human rights violations, I don’t see any western country taking him. China or Russia?

Die from syphilis?

His wife is a British national. Perhaps he can apply for citizenship there via marriage. :cool:

More seriously, I think if he opened some serious back-channel dialogue of “I’ll leave quietly if you find me a safe place to go,” the west would find him a place to go.


Saudi Arabia took Amin, so I figured they’d take Assad. But then I remembered he’s an Alawite, which the uptight Saudis might categorize as non-Muslim rather than a Muslim sect. Yet Amin was only nominally a Muslim at times either.

Russia and China are only supporting the guy that buys their weapons. Once he can no longer buy weapons, they have no interest in him.

I’d go with Iran. They’ve been cooperating on some things for a while, the Iranis love to be contrary to what the rest of the world wants. Etc.

I heard that suggested before, but didn’t he train as an optician?

I assumed that has always been his backup plan. But world justice is different than it was 30 years ago (at least I hope it is, at the very least there are more media stories about dictators being brought to justice). If Assad goes to a 3rd country there is going to be pressure by the new Syrian government, as well as the global community, to hand him back to Syria to stand trial.

Plus who is to say the new Syrian government won’t just sent a hit squad ala the Bin Laden assassination to go kill Assad no matter where he lives? I’m sure he has thought of that too. I know in Iraq, if someone went into exile in a foreign country the Hussein government just sent people to kill them in foreign countries. There is no reason the new Syrian gov wouldn’t do the same thing.

Assad kindof got roped into this whole dictator thing anyway, his brother was supposed to take over Syria and Bashir was going to live as an eye doctor in the UK. I don’t think he’d fight to the end like some other dictators have done.

Mexico took in the Shah. And Leon Trotsky.

Trotsky got axed, the Shah’s son was shot, although I do not recall where, but the Shah managed to die of Natural Causes.

He’ll get more persecution as a heretic then he would as as a non-Muslim monotheist. I really doubt the Saudis would give him safe santuary.

Wouldn’t it be good advertising to take him in? It might encourage the next guy (in some other country) to buy from them, given this supportive treatment in times of trouble?

That’s sure how I’d handle it. References from previous customers would be right there on the brochure.

You’re right.

As for letting him go into exile in peace, I’m for it. If it’s win or die, the chances are, he’ll take many people with him, as we are seeing now.

I know this nice place in St Helena, only one previous occupant… :slight_smile:

Charles Taylor is a somewhat similar case. He agreed to go peacefully into exile in Nigeria in return for an agreement not to pursue him for war crimes. Presumably Assad could cut a similar deal.

On the other hand, Taylor was extradited and tried for war crimes anyways (supposedly because he broke his end of the bargain and tried to remain active in Liberian politics). So Assad may be suspicious the same bait-and-switch will be pulled on him.

Not really sure where Assad could go, either. Ten years ago Egypt, Libya or Iraq would’ve been the obvious choices. But the various pan-Arabic dictators have had a rough decade, and there aren’t a lot of “kindred spirit” dictators left as obvious candidates.

I predict Assad will pull a Qaddafi–that is, he will die in the gutter like a rat, at the hands of the revolutionaries.

Why would they do such a thing? They might be willing to support him while he’s in power, but what would be the point of harboring a powerless, vindicated, war criminal?

Iran, maybe??? He might keep some influence in Syria/Lebanon and be useful for that reason???

More importantly, the Saudis are leading the pack against him currently. How could they possibly make a 180° turn and decide to give him a sanctuary? They’re funding and arming the very people who want Assad dead.

I predict he’ll be shot in the head by one of his own bodyguards or inner circle.

I predict a flight and, eventually a trial in an international court.

Important note : during this Arab spring, my predictions have turned to be right exactly 0% of the time.