Will Burt Rutan Win the X-Prize?

Great Debates
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There was a pretty big announcement yesterday, for people who care about space travel: Burt Rutan unveiled a completely built space ship.

Not a mockup, or a 1/3 scale prototype, or a feasibility design, but the actual vehicles that will make the flight. He’s going after the X Prize, a 10 million dollar award to the first company that can launch three people into space, return them, and then do it again within 2 weeks with the same vehicle.

Rutan’s design is ingenious. Click here, then click ‘featured project’ in the lower right to see it.

Basically, he uses a setup similar to the old X-15 launches - a ‘mothership’ carries the spacecraft up high where the atmosphere is very thin, and drops it. The spaceship ignites a rocket motor and heads into space. The mothership is already flying, and has been since last August. In addition, it uses identical avionics and control system as the spaceship, so it can be proven and tested together, and so the pilots can train for both at the same time. Ingenious.

Even more ingenious is his re-entry method. Rather than use the Shuttle’s method of using pitch angle to set up the exact amount of drag for re-entry, he configures the wings of the spaceship into a kind of ‘shuttlecock’ - a self-stabilizing, high-drag design. The thing is so stable that it can enter the atmosphere at almost any angle, and is completely hand-flown the whole time.

I always thought Rutan would be the one to win the X-Prize, now it looks like he’s got the best chance. So, what do you all think? Is this machine going to do it?

Is this the opening of a new era in cheap space travel, free of governments? Bear in mind that this is still just a ‘ballistic’ flight like the Mercury flights, and it won’t go to orbit. But I’ll bet Rutan’s already working on orbit, and if anyone can do it, he can. He’s the greatest aircraft designer of his generation.

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Well, bear in mind that all he actually demonstrated for the assembled press corps the other day was the plane–we have yet to see whether his spacecraft’s design will work or not, as it has never been tested.

So until he actually tests the thing, I’m not laying any money down.

3

If Rutan has the backing and makes the effort I’m sure he can do it. The shame of it is that we had the technology to do this long ago if the funding was there.

4

Rutan’s probably got all the backing he needs. It’s much easier to get backing when you have a track record of producing great aircraft on time, under budget.

For those who don’t know, Rutan built the Voyager, which is the only aircraft to have flown around the world unrefueled. He was heavily involved in the DC-X, the only V/TOL rocket built (and flown very successfully). He also built the body for the X-38 crew return vehicle for the spacestation, The Beech Starship, and numerous other aircraft, including the Varieze and Long-Eze, two of the most successful homebuilt designs ever built.

Actually, I don’t think it’s really a matter of backing any more. I suspect he could finish this project with his own money, given how they’re already in flight test with the final, space-worthy vehicles.

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I’ve been hoping Rutan would turn his hand to space travel, he’s the only one I ever thought could pull this off.

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Sam, extremely interesting link but can you point me to the section on the “shuttlecock” landing method? Can’t see it.

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This link actually shows it pretty well. The high altitude vehicle has twin tails extending back from the wing tips. For re-entry, the trailing edges of the wings (including the tail booms!) tips up about ninety degrees. (It’s hard to tell the exact angle, it looks different in various drawings.) I think this is the “shuttlecock” configuration they’re describing; high drag and very stable.

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Thanks for the link - I hadn’t noticed the illustration of the lander’s flight cycle.

I love the design, but fear I’m going to have to join DDG in the “wait and see” camp for now.

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I’m a little disappointed that the FAQ identifies the rocket oxidant NO[sub]2[/sub] as “nitrous oxide” and “laughing gas”. There’s some nonsense about the relative environmental friendliness of their hybrid rocket exhaust as well. I just hope the website is subcontracted or run by a public relations type rather than involving anyone technical!
I’m delighted that the X-prize competition is going ahead, and it may well jump-start interest and decent investment in the many companies attempting to build commercial launchers to orbit. But a ballistic flight to 62 miles is MUCH less demanding than getting into orbit.

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It doesn’t sound that way to me. From their FAQ:

That means they haven’t even selected the contractor to build the rocket motor, which of course is the critical component of the spacecraft. I’d guess they are at least 2 years away from actual space flight. And as matt said, a ballistic flight is far easier than an orbital flight. You don’t need to get up to 7 km/s, and thermal load during reentry is orders of magnitude smaller.

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I’ve posted about this on some other boards. My opinion about this is that his group has the best chance of all at the moment. Many others have had similarly kewl looking hardware, but most have been mothballed since the dot-com crash when the $$$ disappeared. (ie, the Roton).

The things that temper my enthusiasm are:

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1: That hitting tab leads to catastrophic premature posting.
2: His group have built loads of planes before, so the fact that they have a flying plane isn’t such a big deal.
3: The actual spaceship bit hasn’t been tested.
4: He’s got a rocket engine, but its still being tested, and hasn’t been in the actual spaceship.

Things that are good:
1: They know what they’re doing.
2: They claim to have sufficient $$$, which is more than others have.
3: They’ve built most of their hardware
4: Quite a lot of it has been tested.

All in all, if any of the (known) teams currently competing for the X-Prize actually win it, I’m betting it’s his group. :slight_smile:

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They don’t have the rocket engine yet, but they have the spacecraft. That means they can do flight tests for all phases of flight other than the re-entry and rocket-assisted ride to space. So quite a lot can be done while they wait for the final engine.

I don’t put them at 2 years away at all. Rutan builds entire aircraft from scratch, including some very exotic designs, in less than half that time. Routinely. Once they have a rocket engine in hand, I would expect to see the first space launch within 6 months.

Of course, if it takes 2 years to get the rocket engine…

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I don’t know much about rocket engines, but for a major space-qualified piece of hardware, it usually takes about 2 years from contract award to delivery. Their hybrid engine sounds much simpler than typical liquid-fuel motors, but still it needs extensive design reviews, testing of prototypes, and much work involved with integration. It looks like a 2-year job to me.

Of course it’s still a very exciting development and I’m glad you brought it up here. Nobody else is this close to flight.

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What are they using for heat shielding?

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They probably don’t need much in the way of heat shielding. THis ship is only getting up to about Mach 3.5 at peak. Reeentry from a little suborbital hop like they’re planning is much easier to survive than reentry from orbit.

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That’s true as far as I know. I mean it sounds like this thing has the flight characteristics of a V-2 and I don’t think it needed much in the way of heat shielding.