ESPN is losing huge numbers of subscribers. The story above indicates the network will soon be spending way, way more to broadcast sports than it will make in revenue. It’s no secret ESPN has been slashing budgets. Many of their top people have moved on.
The contracts that pro leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB) and college conferences have been getting are outrageous. The question is, when the value of those contracts crashes back down to reality tomorrow, will it impact the leagues and conferences that are raking it in today? That relates not just to ESPN, but any other cable network that pays for sports (TNT, TBS, FS1, etc).
Personally, I’m not a huge fan of ESPN, but I see it as a necessary evil of sports enjoyment.
ESPN is (mostly) declining because people are watching less sports. For a long time, as the rest of television viewership was declining, live sports were the holdout, which resulted in ESPN getting more and power with cable networks (and continuing to drive up prices). But now, finally, even viewership of football is declining.
Note that people aren’t less interested in sports. They’re still following along via score updates and quick video clips of cool games. But they spend a lot less time doing so. Which is bad news if you’re trying to sell advertising against sports programming.
ESPN is also declining because the leagues themselves are realizing that they don’t need television to market to viewers. I think MLB has been the most successful with selling directly to fans, but the others are catching on and will pretty quickly be able to do better than they used to with broadcast rights.
Expect a very loud thud from ESPN as these trends intersect. Major sports leagues will be ok (although probably not quite as lucrative as they once were).
The leagues will be ok, but the loss of the ESPN piles of money will definitely damage those leagues in interesting ways (though, quite possibly to public benefit - ie, if the leagues and teams aren’t as lucrative and ubiquitous, cities may be more willing to refuse to pay for stadiums).
Are people watching less sports? I bet NBA viewership is up, without checking. I had read that MLB regular season ratings for prime time matchups was mostly even from last year, maybe slightly up.
Fox executive, Michael Mulvihill, tweeted this data on year to year NFL viewership through week 7.
Regionalized
Fox -1%
CBS -9%
Non-Regionalized
TNF -18%
SNF -19%
MNF -24%
Monday Night Football on ESPN has taken the biggest hit by far. The Sunday 1pm and 4pm games haven’t suffered nearly as much as prime time. Those prime time game contracts are what bring in the big bucks.
I thought it was pretty clear pro sports had plateaued since the Great Recession. MLB attendance is more or less the same year to year, fluctuating up or down by a percent or two. NBA and NHL attendance are more or less the same, though in fairness they’re up against quicker upper limits in terms of how many tickets the successful franchises can sell.
The thing is that pro sports enjoyed a huge, huge upswing in revenue leading up to that period of time, so maybe we’re just as high as it can go in terms of what people are willing to spend on pro sports as a percentage of their income.
It may indeed partially be that ticket prices as high as can go, but that shouldn’t necessarily impact TV ratings all that much. I think new ways to consume sports info with technology also tends to hurt. I see far more folks instantly checking scores (or having push notifications tell them) on their phones rather than busting ass to watch it live - unless its a ‘big game’.
Well, they will have to, but in the transition period, there may be some really tense CBA negotiations. And maybe a strike or two while these things are figured out.
I’m not sure that all major sports leagues will be okay: the NBA is currently paying out obscene amounts of money to its players, based in no small part on how much ESPN paid for the broadcast rights. If the network goes into decline, and no other network can offer that kind of money to the league, it could indirectly lead to a work stoppage.
Also, because the NBA won’t allow them to negotiate independently, a slashed budget at ESPN could be the death rattle for the WNBA. A non-zero number of people will care; I know that number includes no one on the Dope besides me but, still…