What are the chances of someone Hillary’s age/gender/general health level to drop dead in the next two years? those are her chances of not being president.
From PresictWise:
Dem nomination:
Clinton 69%
Biden 16%
Sanders 12%
Rep nomination:
Jeb Bush 31%
Marco Rubio 29%
Donald Trump 13%
Carly Fiorina 7%
Ben Carson 6%
President:
Hillary Clinton 43%
Jeb Bush 12%
Joe Biden 12%
Marco Rubio 10%
Bernie Sanders 7%
Donald Trump 6%
Chris Christie 2%
Ben Carson 2%
President (party):
Democratic 58%
Republican 42%
The interesting thing going on right now Has nothing to do with Clinton, Biden, Sanders, Carson, or Trump. Rubio and Bush have been splitting around 60% for a while but it’s been around 40-20 Bush-Rubio. Now it’s 31-29. Here’s a graph.
If Carson’s the nominee, the Democrats win the presidency, period. I mean, do you seriously dispute this? Dems only need about 25% of the electoral college votes that are in play (via Larry Sabato) to win the election. So it will take an exceptionally strong R and/or an exceptionally weak D for Republicans to win. Carson is doing well among the Republican base, but there’s no way Dems or independents are going to break in droves for someone with weird fundamentalist religious views; absolutely zero relevant experience; and a habit of making profoundly stupid and/or offensive statements, notwithstanding his intelligent and kindly demeanor. Especially if the D is a known quantity like Clinton.
None of this says anything against the assertion that Hillary has a decent shot at the Presidency and Carson does not.
To say she won’t be the next President, you have to say who will be. And that would be … who? It won’t be a Republican, because none of them are so far capturing anyone’s imagination outside of the trogs they can count on anyway, and they’ve kissed off too much of the Electoral College over the years (and are still working on more). It won’t be Biden, who isn’t running, or Sanders, whose support is a niche market, or the others nobody can even name.
The only way it isn’t going to be Clinton is if she has a very major medical issue or dies - either is plausible but still a long-shot bet. That’s it.
The way I see it, there are only four people who have any realistic path to becoming the next President: Clinton, Rubio, Sanders, or Biden (in approximately that order of likelihood). Clinton’s path to the White House is the one she’s on now. Rubio could pull an upset in the Republican primary if Bush’s supporters switch over to him, and then catch a lucky break in the general. Sanders could pull an upset in the Democratic primary if populist sentiment grows strong enough to convince the big names (donors and endorsers) to back him, and then catch a lucky break in the general. And Biden’s not running and won’t, but he is still the Vice President, which means that (God forbid) he could become the next President at any time.
No other Democrat is in a position to win the primary. Trump or Bush could win the Republican primary, but couldn’t win the general election. Kasich could win the general election, but is too far behind other candidates too much like him to win the primary.
While I wholeheartedly agree with you that it won’t be Biden, I do think he might run. The man has wanted to be president probably since the womb, and heavily since his 30s. Given the donors clamoring for his entrance, it would be terribly, terribly, terribly difficult for him to resist given that his support in 88/08 was less than wholeheartedly enthusiastic.
Yes.
Yes, No one on the Democratic side will mount enough of a challenge to Hillary. I hope Biden doesn’t decide to run as all it will do is siphon off votes from Hillary; it won’t make Biden the nominee.
I can’t imagine anyone on the Republican side winning the presidency as the GOP primary process has evolved to such a state that the candidates must embrace the crazy during the primaries and then whiplash it back to the center for the general. I simply don’t see anyone successfully navigating that minefield anymore.
On NPR this morning, Cokie Roberts lamented how weak a candidate Bush is. His financial backers don’t know what to do at this point. Some are beginning to prop up Fiorina for god knows what reason as even with the crazification factor she has no chance of being the nominee. Carson lets slip additional nonsense every time he opens his pie hole. Trump is a buffoon who no one in the party wants. Cruz is an egomaniac who no one in the party likes, Rubio is NRFPT, Christie is a moderate so yeah, no chance for him, Rand Paul seems to be disappearing right in front of us. I am sure Graham, Huckabee, Santorum, Pataki, and Jindal all know that have absolutely no shot, but they’re not running for president anyway, they’re running for relevance. This leaves Kasich, who I wish would win the nomination but won’t, and Jim Gilmore who I am not even sure is still in the race but hasn’t bailed as far as I know.
In the end, I still believe it will be Bush (as impossible as this seems at the moment) against Clinton, with Clinton winning handily.
The only reason anyone picks any of the current Republican candidates to win the nomination is because one of them HAS to win.
Hah? :dubious:
Not Ready For Prime Time. It took me a while to figure that one out, too.
This (the part I bolded) is in my opinion the strongest argument for why Hillary could win. She has been in the public eye for so long, and picked apart so much, that I feel confident she could handle any attacks slung her way, or new information about her being brought to light. No Republican candidate has been publicly vetted to nearly this extent; furthermore, since there’s no clear front-runner in the primary right now, whomever becomes the Republican candidate will not be thoroughly vetted until pretty late in the election cycle. As a result, any damning stories about the Republican candidate would come out late enough in the election cycle that they could sway undecided voters. By contrast, any outcries about Benghazi, e-mail, etc. will be a distant memory in voters’ minds.
According to the latest PredictWise figures (which aggregate estimates from bookies, etc.), Hillary is 43% to be the next President of the United States. Biden is in 2nd place with 13%, closely followed by Bush and Rubio. Rounding out the Six Most Likely are Trump and Sanders.
Don’t forget the possibility that Clinton is in prison for improper handling of classified information. Many out there who think Obama isn’t interested in turning the democrat party back over to the Clintons.
What possibility?
The same people who think he’s going to overrule the 22nd Amendment and declare martial law or something? That was said about Bill Clinton, too, and for the same reason and with the same amount of imagination.
Oh, right. Never mind.
There is absolutely no possibility Hillary will be in prison, much less arrested, for the faux email scandal.
Many? Really? Like who?
And that, guys that are more reasonable, is why this “scandal” is like “deja vu all over again” *. As I pointed before the Clintons end up looking much better because people realize that the ones trying to get them are themselves abusing the law and exaggerating so much in the attempt at getting them that then the Clintons do look as being unfairly targeted.
Indeed we can see how that is happening when looking at McCarthy’s gaffe about the Benghazi hearings being set to get Clinton down, it was/is a huge gift to team Hillary.
- RIP Yogi.
I know I have been a Hillary doubter but Kevin McCarthy just handed her campaign a big fat gift with his comments about the political motive behind the Benghazi committee. I won’t be surprised if the result is both that investigation and the email “scandel” lose steam in the next few weeks as a result.
And I doubt Hillary will let up on calling them out about this. That ad will be running for weeks and weeks.
And already some on the right are freaking that McCarthy effed up big time. From Kathleen Parker at Newsmax:
And since it seems certain McCarthy will end up in the Speaker’s chair we will have many more possible gifts to look forward to. I doubt HRC will let any of them go by unanswered.
Kathleen Parker at Newsmax:
Yeah, I think that McCarthy gaffe* could be a really huge deal, and totally nullify this particular line of attack. Hillary will be turning to it every single time she is attacked on Benghazi – possibly even with the email stuff.
*Accidentally told the truth about the Benghazi investigations