Will Hillary Clinton be the next U.S. President?
Any thoughts on this?
At times I think that both parties know there’s a major shitstorm coming and are doing their best to make sure the other guys win.
I really can’t judge the likelihood of Hillary winning simply because I’ve read so many negative comments/posts about her and can no longer tell how much of that is actual American thinking and how much is the right-wing noise machine.
But even if she actually is unelectable she may be running against a Republican who is unelectable as well and oneof them has to win, right?
So, I guess my answers is: Yeah, maybe.
Better chances than anyone else, certainly. How much better? That I couldn’t say.
Better chances than Bernie Sanders?
Yes. She has far more support from the party establishment (cite) and far better name recognition among the general public (didn’t bother to dig up a cite, but really, how could this not be true?)
And I still think it will be easier to scare people with “he’s a socialist” than “she didn’t follow proper email protocol”.
At the moment, polls show her about statistically even with some of the Republican candidates (though easily ahead of Donald Trump). She has a nationwide lead over Sanders, but it’s slipping rapidly away. She may become President, but clearly it’s not going to be a cakewalk for her.
She is definitely the single person most likely to be elected President in 2016. She only has one significant opponent for the Democratic nomination, and she’s leading him, which means that she has over a 50% chance of that. Come the general election, she’s at worst even with the potential Republican contenders, and leading on some of them, so that has to be considered over 50%, too. For comparison, Sanders is probably about equally likely to win the general if nominated, and less likely to get there. And the Republican field is currently so fragmented that no individual has even a 50% chance of winning their primary, and the one currently in the best position in the primary is one of the worst for general election polling.
If I could only pick one person to bet on, it would be Hillary Clinton. But if it’s simply either/or, I’m betting no. I just cannot see her increasing her support, which means that the only way she wins is for her opponents(both in the primary and the general) being too unacceptable to the electorate.
I just don’t see her drawing that kind of luck two times.
I have no doubt that Hillary Clinton will win the election. Her opposition in Dem nomination is weak. Webb, O’Malley and Chafee are very weak candidates with no real base. Sanders and Biden have much larger than bases Webb, O’Malley and Chafee but as individual candidates none of them are strong enough to even compete with Clinton. They trail far behind her in all polls. If Sanders or Biden would drop off a race their candidates in turn would rally to Clinton. Clinton is set to win the DEM nomination. The Republican camp has not yet delivered a candidate which stands a chance. Currently, only Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Rubio, Bush and Cruz have a chance to win the GOP nomination and all of them are controversial in the Republican camp. The GOP base wants a (paleo) conservative supporting fewer wars, fewer immigrants, more border control and less free trade. The GOP elites want to continue with neo-conservatism. If Trump win the beltway republicans and the GOP elite will support Clinton. If the republican left or the (neo) conservative wins the Republican base will jump ship and Clinton will win. The Republican Party is in a deep political crisis and there is little way out. Clinton and Democrats will immensely benefit from the crisis and so she will win the election.
Any Republican is already unacceptable, so there’s no “luck” involved in that. She takes the nomination, and it’s all over but the shouting.
IIRC, this conflicts with some of your previous assertions, like that Ben Carson is more likely to be President than Hillary Clinton.
That was in the context of you claiming Carson had no chance despite his numbers being as good as Clinton’s: better approval, more likely to win at least one of the first two contests, and absolutely killing it in general election trial heats. The numbers didn’t back up your contention that Carson had no chance. If Carson has no chance, Clinton has no chance.
His fundraising is not as good, and he had no (or nearly no) endorsements. Those are major numbers. Further, Hillary had (and has) the lead in her primary; Carson doesn’t. More numbers.
It’s ridiculous to compare the two. Go with Nate Silver – 90-95% chance that Hillary wins the nomination; 50% that the Democratic nominee wins the presidency – that’s ~45% chance or so that Hillary is our next president. Carson, on the other hand, has about a 5% chance to win the nomination (to be generous), and the Republican nominee has a 50% chance to win the presidency. That’s about a 2.5% chance that Carson is our next president.
Not comparable in the least. Total silliness to say that Carson has anything close to the chance that Hillary does of being president.
We don’t know how much endorsements actually matter in this cycle. So far, they mean precisely squat. As far as fundraising goes, Clinton is a juggernaut, but she’s got the large donors pretty much all to herself. Carson’s fundraising is awesome given the size of the field and his reliance on small donors. As for polling numbers, Carson has much higher approval and his polling numbers against opposition are going up, while Clinton’s are trending down.
Silver did not use math to arrive at that conclusion. There are no computer simulations here. It’s his back of a napkin figuring plus his intuition. Those percentages come from nothing. Silver has no way to model a primary campaign the way he does a general election.
Those percentages come from something – all the numbers we’ve been discussing. They’re not as precise as general election predictions, but it’s totally irrational to dismiss them.
I’ll leave it at this – I see nothing to suggest that Carson is anything more than Cain or Bachmann from '12 – they never had any real chance at the nomination despite their time at the top (and Carson isn’t even leading the polls). And considering the things that Carson says, which IMO are just as ridiculous as anything Cain or Bachmann said in 2012, I see no reason to believe this is different.
We’ll see, but I’ll go with Nate Silver on this one (as with everything at this point): Carson has very little chance, and Hillary has a very significant chance.
Different cycle, better fundraising, better qualifications. Silver’s getting too hung up on demographics, and the facts on the ground are changing there. Why he assumed African-Americans wouldn’t abandon Clinton when they learned more about Sanders is a headscratcher.
You can probably guess that I’m going to take his views over yours. Especially if you think that Carson has more than a miniscule chance at the nomination.
Further, I haven’t seen evidence that African Americans have “abandoned” Clinton. The polling I’ve seen suggests that she still has a very large lead with African American Democrats.
Sanders is going to pose a serious challenge to Hillary. I suspect he will be in the race at least as late as Hillary was in 2008. But she will prevail.
Nobody can say who the GOP will offer as competition, but I think it’s probably Rubio or Bush. If it’s Carson or Trump then Hillary prevails. If it’s Bush, then Hillary prevails. I think Rubio is probably the GOP’s best shot. But I think Rubio probably loses Ohio and Virginia, and even with Florida loses enough of the rest of the Obama bloc to lose in the electoral college.
The markets have her at a 43% favorite to be POTUS. I’d say that number is low. I think it’s better than even (though not much better).
But not enough of one anymore to assure that she won’t also lose South Carolina if she loses in the first two states. Silver’s assumption was that Sanders could win IA and NH, but then would lose because most other states aren’t as white.
Yes.
She has weathered everything the GOP has thrown at her over the last 20-30 years and has the (albeit slight) chance of flipping some traditional Republican states eg Arkansas. The electoral math is very very difficult for a Trump, a Carson, even a Bush/Rubio. In the primary, Sanders will win NH and probably some of the other northeastern liberal bastions but he’s not going to win the entire primary, whether or not Biden gets in to siphon off Hillary support.