Based on what I know, its pretty much in the cards right? Hong Kong will merge into China in 2047, right now is just a transitional period where rights afforded under the British system will slowly be eroded away.
Or do the protesters actually have a chance of achieving something, if not full independence?
The PRC has become so much more industrialized and entrepreneurial since Deng’s reforms, and the handover they were leading up to among other things, that the rest of the country has already become much more like Hong Kong than the reverse.
The British democratic reforms were symbolic anyway - they came very late in their rule and never went very deep.
I think China’s gov’t will look quite different by 2047. Much less authoritarian would be my guess , if trends continue.
As someone who’s made a number of trips to China, I can say for a communist country, it’s pretty wide open. They DO cut off a lot of access to many internet sites but other than that, it feels like the only thing people can’t do there is criticize the govt.
I suspect that’s the reason for China increasing its direct rule over the place. During the hand-over, HK accounted for something like 10% of Chinese GDP. Promises about HK’s liberty were made when China was unsure they could replicate its economic success on their own, so they didn’t want to rock the boat.
Now they know they can, and there’s a lot less impetus to let HK do its own thing. I suspect that trend will continue, and HK will continue to have its semi-independence whittled away.
Are the protesters after independence? I thought they just wanted to be able to freely elect their own local government, without having Beijing winnow down the nominees list to only people they like.
That’s my understanding. However, I think that if China reneges on their contractual obligations, Hong Kong would be better served by making the point that once someone breaks a contract, the other party is free to ignore it. They’d do better to silently agree to stop paying taxes or adhering to any laws that China imposes, than holding protests. I don’t know that I would go so far as starting to threaten independence, since that would require appointing officials - who would quickly be arrested - but if the whole territory simply shrugs and ignores you, that’s a hard problem to confront. How do you oppose an enemy that, instead of sending out men to the battlefield, just stays home and watches daytime TV?
Turn off the power. HK is dependent on the Mainland for basically everything. They don’t really have any leverage, they’ll end up with whatever degree of independence China decides to give them. Hopefully protests will be enough of an inconvenience that China will decide to give them a greater degree of self-rule, but there isn’t really any way for the people of HK to force the issue. When push comes to shove, they’ll end up with whatever gov’t the rather opaque internal decision processes of the CCC decides to give them.
China DOES have something to fear from them. Their uprisising can spark the same in mainland China. Especially if they decide to go heavyhanded like they did against the Tianeman crowd.
Then offer to pay them for electricity.
At the end of the day, whether you rally or stay home and don’t pay taxes, the end-goal is to make China look like a mean asshole to the global community. Rallying just gives them opportunities to hurt people, to make the people of HK look like a bunch of hoodlums and anarchists, and gives them an excuse to declare martial law.
It’s far better to offer them no opportunity to make you look bad, unreasonable, nor dangerous.
So other than not being able to vote or stage any public protest or criticize the government or communicate with anyone who might do any of the above, it’s an open political system.
I would say an open society, if not political system. And I actually did witness a protest against an employer. It was only about ten people but they had signs and were picketing. It just wasn’t againt the government.
There’s also the risk of scaring away investors. The stock market there has already plunged.
This will be interesting to see how it plays out. It’s like an irresistible force meeting an immovable object.
These next couple of days will be interesting too. Two days of public holidays starting about the close of business today (Tuesday). Lots more people will be available to swell the streets.
Some of us consider that a pretty big item right there.
Then there are the considerable efforts to stop webs site that even have a secondary or minor political mission, like Facebook. See:
One of our children was in the PRC about six months ago and reported that the difficulty in overcoming the Great Firewall has greatly increased.
Government control over church leadership is also a big problem to me.
And what about lack of freedom to read? Example: books like critical biographies of Mao (if in Chinese, I know you can get them in English).
Then there are the restrictions on how many children you can have. This is enormously significant to me. Changing the limit from one to two is not the point, but that I would be punished for having the number my wife and I might wish for. This is a far greater restriction on human freedom than anything the American revolutionaries protested.
Street protests played a key role in Taiwan’s democratization, The same may happen in China.
Well I’m not, in any way, condoning the repressive practices of the Chinese government. I was basically just stating my surprise at how the feel of being on the street there felt pretty similar to being home in NY. Of course, my short visits doesn’t equate to knowing what everyday life is like there.
My opinion is that (sadly) the protestors do not have one single chance of achieving anything. The photographs are great, and this must be an exciting and exhilarating time. But the Chinese government IMHO will do whatever it takes to keep Hong Kong in line. WHATEVER it takes.
My opinion on this one is that it is impossible to scare investors away from such a large actual and potential market. Where the profit motive is in play, people are reckless, fearless, and stupid. NOTHING trumps the chance to make lots of money.
Eh. HK is a financial center because there are few restrictions on capital flows, low taxes, and few barriers of access; they are everything mainland China is not. If HK does indeed become more like the mainland, the desirability of investing there will be affected.
Yes, but none of that has anything to do with the establishment of democracy or the maintenance of human rights. As long as investing in Hong Kong is profitable, investors will invest.
Stock Exchange of Thailand officials are already rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of enticing those investors over to here.