Will Israel destroy Hamas

Politics & Elections
301

No money was ever – or will ever – change hands directly with the Iranians. No one is going to hand over a big check to the Iranians like a Lotto winner. They can apply for humanitarian aid, and if it is approved by the US and Qatar, then the funds will be paid by Qatar directly to the humanitarian agency providing the aid. That’s it.

It’s all a moot point now, because what was “blocked” was the Iranians’ ability to even apply for such aid. All they were “authorized” to do was to apply. Now they are (rightly, in my opinion) precluded from doing that.

302

Are you forgetting the cash flown into Iran by an American plane during the Obama administration?

https://www.cnn.com/2016/08/03/politics/us-sends-plane-iran-400-million-cash/index.html

So forgive people for not knowing the exact nature of the money release.

303

Not forgetting it. But you raising it is a stretch for "whatabout"ism. It was a different situation with different applicable circumstances. A common tactic of the Right to attempt to conflate one thing with another and pretend they are the same. They’re not.

And we’re not going to drag discussions about the Obama administration into this thread, right? Because that would be a hijack, and I would hate to get modded for that.

304

This is what I’m talking about:

If that quote is accurate, then it seems to me it was purposeful.

305

Fucking media. They’ll get you every time. Fucking media.

306

No, my bringing it up was a direct refutation of this claim:

Trying to accuse me of ‘whataboutism’ in this case is truly baffling.

307

I was confining my comments to the instant situation, not trying to drag the actions of a prior administration into the discussion. You did that. And it’s a classic “whatabout” tactic. I’m sorry you are baffled by it.

308

That quote is attributed to him but isn’t confirmed by any independent sources yet. I don’t know if those allegations are true or not; I think this is the right take though:

Whether or not he actually said this, his policies certainly have enabled Hamas, intentionally or not.

If it IS a policy Netanyahu consciously held, I still think that’s a separate matter than the withdrawal itself. Netanyahu was against that; he wouldn’t come into power until Hamas was already on the scene.

309

Regarding the thread question:

It is unknowable if Israel can destroy Hamas (and the Gaza contingent of Palestinian Islamic Jihad), so one cannot make a case. But even if Gaza is cleared of every trace of the current militant outfits, a new one will appear.

I think it is more practical, and really essential, for Israel to stop the tactics that have worked for the militants/terrorists.

So I think the Israel Defense Force (IDF) has little choice but to stop the rockets that continue tonight to be fired from Gaza at Israel. I expect they will succeed there because there is no real alternative.

For many years, there has been, month after month, rockets, and firebombs, and other projectiles, launched from Gaza to Israeli towns near Gaza, especially Sdorot (population 31,000). Fewer than this week? Yes, but enough so that it is hard for me to imagine living under that threat. Israelis – mostly lower income Israelis – who lived there effectively made an unsigned deal with the rest of the nation where they, with their presence, showed that Jews were not driven out of a corner of Israel. In return for the security risk they took, they received low housing costs. Part of the implied deal was that the Israel Defense Force would prevent any mass casualty event. Unless Israel is willing to effectively cede the region near Gaza – and they are not – it is now necessary to establish that the area is much safer than before. Otherwise, residents will never return. Doing this requires a real halt to incoming mortars and rockets.

Will it require a long-term occupation of Gaza? I hope not. One possibility is a technical fix, later this decade, in the form of laser missile defense. If this works as hoped, the cost of shooting down a rocket or mortar will be so much less than the cost of the projectile as to make current tactics, I hope, impossible. A very different possibility would be a Gaza peacekeeping force.

P.S. Of course Israel has to prevent another cross-border attack, but perhaps they have already started that by mining the border with Gaza and/or will find other technical means.

310

That can be used to justify the cutting off of food and medical supplies, but I still can’t think of any good justifiction for cutting off the water supply. Hamas isn’t going to be hurt by this there is enough water supplies to keep themselves hydrated through the conflict. The only people it is going to hurt is the civilian population. And it can hit them hard and fast. After a few days without water you are going to start seeing mass civilian death on an epic scale. It also isn’t going to turn the population against Hamas. If a policeman repeatedly punches you in the face because your neighbor committed a horrible crime are you going to blame your neighbor or the policeman. If anything it is going to make their invasion harder. If your dying slowly of dehydration why not make your death mean something by trying to attack an occupying soldier with a knife at least it will be over quick. For this reason it also isn’t going to convince Hamas to give up the hostages. The worse the palistinians suffer the stronger they get.

The only justification I can see for this policy is a vengeance filled desire to cause as much suffering as possible on the palistinian population, “you kill our children and elderly so we will kill yours!”

311

The water was turned off to pressure Hamas to release the hostages, along with fuel and power.

(I don’t have an English source at the moment).

I doubt this is likely to make Hamas release the hostages, but that’s the reasoning.

I’ll note that I’m pretty pessimistic about any method securing the hostages’ release.

312

Don’t forget electricity too:

As Gaza’s sole power station ran out of fuel amid a tightening siege, hundreds of terrified people sought shelter in the entry of the enclave’s largest hospital, huddling together as bombardments rained down.

A few hours after the Palestinian minister for energy said Gaza’s only power station had enough fuel to last another 12 hours at most, Gaza’s energy authority said the fuel had run out. The generators that many across Gaza have struggled to keep running in order to power homes and hospitals appeared on the brink of sputtering out without fuel, with no deliveries available due to the closure of Gaza’s southern border crossing with Egypt.

On preview, more or less just an English version of what @Babale noted. Sadly, I agree that I’m pessimistic that there is any way to recover the hostages Hamas has taken. Mt first thought when Hamas declared that they were going to start executing hostages in retaliation for Israeli strikes that resulted in civilian deaths was what a hollow threat it was; they’re dead already. That and it takes a special kind of evil to threaten to start killing the civilians you took as hostages while murdering other civilians.

313

Being in Hamas’ captivity is such a horrible fate that death may well be better.

314

It’s also the reality of siege warfare. It’s an awful situation but the opportunity for any decent outcome seems to have passed for the foreseeable future.

315

I would say that that is their public justification, but the leaders in Israel aren’t stupid, they know that the chances of this actually succeeding in forcing Hamas to release the hostages without horrific loss of life (in the tens to hundreds of thousands of deaths from dehydration from among the most vulnerable population) is minimal. So have to think that the real goal is to satisfy a collective desire for vengeance in a significant proportion of the Israeli electorate.

316

I’d expect the goal to be that desperate people turn in members of Hamas and reveal their locations.

But, yeah, otherwise it just sounds like a pretty grim mass genocide of everyone in Gaza. You can’t survive more than a couple of days without water.

317

Medical supplies are apparently getting in:

More than 2 tons of medical supplies from the Egyptian Red Crescent have been sent to Gaza . . .

I say apparently because of the fog of war.

While I am sympathetic to Israel, the statements of belligerents are not trustworthy. UN statements may be better, but the reality is so complex, with likely exceptions to most generalizations.

Some of the Israeli statements are morally very wrong. Taken literally, this Netanyahu promise is a war crime plan:

This of course would mean executing those who Israel captures. Totally unacceptable.

I hope and suspect improper Israeli statements are being made to convince possibly discouraged Israelis that their government is doing something beyond planning what to do. I of course don’t expect you to think the Israelis are better than they say they are, or withhold criticism.

Water? That has to be complicated. Most of the water comes from outside Gaza, but not all. However, water pressure requires electricity. It likely will be turned on and off for tactical reasons.

Destroying Hamas? In addition to what I said before, I’m not even sure what it means. However, it can’t mean what Netanyahu said.

318

At the risk of sounding callous about the 150 Israeli hostages, when 1,200 Israelis have already died it’s not much additional price if Hamas is demanding that the only alternative is that Israel call off the counter-offensive and accept a truce (or else the hostages would be executed). There’s no way the Israeli government could give in to that. It may be best for Israel to simply roll into Gaza as if the hostages didn’t exist and make establishing total control of Gaza, and extermination of Hamas, a much higher priority than the hostages.

On a side note, IIRC, the number of total Israeli casualties in Yom Kippur was about 2,800. I doubt that Israel’s counter-offensive would see 1,600 IDF deaths but there is some possibility that this could go down as the greatest loss-of-Israeli-life war in Israel history.

319

I don’t think the plan is to cut water off for weeks or months. Israel is going to invade with ground troops long before that.

Eta: let me clarify, I don’t think it’s a good idea. Strategically it will not weaken Hamas, there’s no way the Palestinian public blames Hamas over Israel for the situation, and it will hurt some people, regardless of how long the shutoff lasts. But I also don’t think it’s a situation that’s going to last weeks and lead to thousands dead, because Israel will send in troops long before that.

320

Hamas may or may not end up destroyed, but the Palestinian cause was lost long ago. They have been re-fighting the war of 1948 for decades and they continue to lose. Not only land, but allies to fight for them and resolve to isolate Israel until a solution to the Palestinian issue is found. In the meantime, the Palestinians’ dead-end fate fuels a Samson-like attitude among them (paraphrased as) “Let me die with my enemies” which requires occasional attention and/or violent repression.

With so many maximalists in influential positions on all sides viewing the conflict as a zero-sum game, there is no resolution: there can only be conflict management.

This is Israel’s Manifest Destiny in action. Like the U.S. in the 18th and 19th centuries, Israel is seeking to expand its borders, in this case to encompass Gaza and the West Bank. The Palestinians are in the way, much like tribes of Native Americans were in the way of the U.S. reaching coast to coast. If current trends hold, their fate seems likely to be similar.

I’m willing to give the Israelis the benefit of some doubt that they would prefer to expunge the Palestinians over time through “legal means” - denial of rights, new settlement construction, “natural growth” of existing settlements, etc. – rather than through violence, but if the Palestinian leadership is dumb enough to give them an excuse (as they have done repeatedly), Israel is more than willing to respond with violence, at once accelerating the expunging process (their long-term goal) while providing diplomatic cover for Israeli actions.

It is possible some of us will live to see the emptied refugee camps bulldozed and new Israeli construction started in Gaza. I don’t know where the Palestinians will go. I’m pretty sure most Israelis in leadership positions don’t really care.

The bottom line in this senseless conflict never changes: there’s enough land and barely enough resources (e.g., water) to sustain everybody provided they demonstrate a minimum level of coexistence, i.e., not try to kill one another. Neither side appears able/willing to do this for an indefinite period of time. I personally have no respect for any two parties who cannot resolve their differences without trying to kill one another. This seems to me a basic test of civilized behavior.