Some people were saying that Obama screwed up when he committed American forces in Libya (Operation Freedom Falcon - not to be confused with Operation Falcon Freedom). The argument was that Obama would end up getting bogged down in an ongoing insurgency like Afghanistan or Iraq.
But at the moment, things are looking good. The National Transitional Council appears to be on the verge of establishing control of Libya and, so far, there appears to be no significant opposition in the Middle East to American support.
So what now? Does the Council take charge, Americans come home, and everyone is happy? Or is this the moment when things start to go sour?
I can’t help but feel that at the moment, this is going to be seen as a major foreign policy success for Obama. In the face of strong Republican opposition, he went in, fought a quick war, won it, and came home. All he needs to do now is say “That’s how you fight a Middle Eastern war, bitches!” and start making plans for his second inauguration.
Of course, there was a moment when George Bush was standing on the deck of the Abraham Lincoln with his Mission Accomplished banner, saying the same thing. Will Obama end up looking like Bush did? Is our involvement in Libya almost over or only beginning?
Don’t you think it will depend on what actually happens in Libya and that it’s too early to tell?
If another civil war breaks out between different tribes or whatever, it’s not going to looks so great. If there is some semblance of democracy and peace, then it’ll look good.
But I don’t have a crystal ball and most of us know next to nothing about Libya.
Thinking it over, I feel that most of these issues are already being discussed in the “Obama’s Libyan Adventure-Will It End Badly?” thread. If a mod wants to close this thread as being redundant, I have no problem with that.
If he couldnt turn OBL’s death into a major success (he just avoided losing points by bungling it. And he did look weak in that windbreaker. Almost faggoty, you know). I dont see how a (rather complex) possible success in N Africa is going to bring him any points in a population at war with geography.
I agree that nobody knows for certain what’s going to happen. I was looking for speculations from people on what they think will happen. I wanted to avoid the partisan sniping that the other thread has turned into. But then I realized there was no chance that this thread wasn’t going to turn into the same thing.
So far that thread seems to be more about the revolution and the future of Libya and not so much about what this might mean for Obama. For now at least, I’ll leave this open.
I assume this is a parody, but it’s still inappropriate. Don’t do it again.
Given that American personnel aren’t being killed either way, and the cost is extremely low compared to Iraq, Afghanistan and the bank bailout, I’m not sure it makes much difference. Obama’s opponents will spin it negative with the merest shred of basis for doing so, though even the worst-case scenario at this point doesn’t seem too bad in the context of recent years.
Yeah, that’s probably almost the best he can hope for, unfair as that is.
Well, we know this revolution is neither jihadist nor Communist, because neither movement showed enough visibility, nor appears broadly popular. And there’s no military organization in Libya, on either side, strong enough to pull off a military coup or impose a military dictatorship. What other possibilities are there that are really scary? The only one that comes to mind – and the one the NTC is chiefly concerned to prevent – is Somalia-level tribal anarchy. But, frankly, I think at this point the Libyan people are ready to follow any national government that isn’t too heavy.
I think the West has handled this the right way. One brigade of U.S. Marines could have ended this war at any time in the past six months, but the rebels just wanted air support and to do all the ground-fighting themselves. Which means the Libya that results from this will not be like Iraq, where almost everyone across the spectrum (except the Kurds, I suppose) has a seething resentment against the foreign invaders. Instead, it will feel indebted to the West for its freedom. (Sure, anyone who lost a loved one to a NATO bomb might feel differently, but they’ll be a small minority, and all other war-damage will be blamed only on Libyans.) That gives us a potentially important ally in the MENA.
Who knows how long that gratitude will last. But, for the moment, it’s significant: Before, we had a country on the Mediterranean whose government was always going out of its way to rattle sabers at the West. And now it looks like we’ll have a government there that feels grateful to the West.
Certainly true to some degree, but I think once American military involvement ends, most of the public stops paying attention. If the place turns into a hell-hole tomorrow, it’ll be bad for Obama, but if things just slowly degenerate, even if it only takes a couple months, I think most Americans will just write it off as someone elses problem.
In anycase, its certainly better for Obama’s electoral prospects then the thing turning into a drawn out, bloody stalemate, which is what many (including me) were predicting.
It is a 2 part problem. First toss out the dictator. That is a difficult and dangerous step. Then they have to find a way to govern. The dictator generally excludes the people from governance, so there is nobody who can step in.
So often power is grabbed by the head of the group that overthrows the government or an army general. So will we have to deal with a Castro? Will we have a powerful general to deal with?
So Obama will not get credit if Libya is an ungovernable mess .
How powerful a voice will religion have in Libya?
If Obama somehow brought universal world peace tomorrow, Fox News and the Republican candidates would criticize him for hurting the defense industry.
We helped them free the country from a tyrant without boots on the ground (except special forces) and with far fewer civilian casualties than if we had turned our backs. It appears to have gone better as the Transitional Council Forces got their act together, which naturally took some time.
It is also refreshing to not be on the side of the dictator for once.
For the OP - bring which Americans back? The CIA? Special forces? I believe the US air attacks are launched from Italy. Perhaps you mean the war correspondents.
There’s no obvious danger of dictatorship. Libya has two armies, one almost defeated and the other barely organized – a military dictatorship is unlikely. The revolution has not been associated with any one leader, and no leader on the scene appears important or charismatic enough to come to the fore – though someone must, eventually. Nor is any ideological political party or movement the driving force of this revolution, or positioned to take over the new government. There will be an Islamist party, no doubt, but I doubt it will swing a majority; if that were likely, Islamists would have been a lot more prominent in the revolution than they were.
They may be based out of Italy (and Cyprus, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States) but Americans have been flying missions in Libya. So “bring them back” would be when they no longer are present in Libya.
Obama will get no credit for this even if it turns out that helping the rebels topple Gaddafi’s dictatorship resulted in liquid diamonds raining from the sky. After all, using the same reasoning that prevented people from giving him credit for Osama Bin Laden’s death, Obama was never involved in fighting, never flew a plane, never pulled a trigger on a gun, so none of the credit for any US and/or NATO assistance should be given to Obama.
However, if it turns out that helping the rebels topple Gaddafi’s dictatorship results in the slightest negative outcome, Obama will receive every single bit of the blame.
Are you saying that nobody gave Obama any credit when Osama bin Laden was killed? Because I seem to recall a lot of people who said he did a good job on that.
If everyone hates Obama the way you’re saying, it’s hard to see how he was elected President.
Perhaps what you mean is that some people won’t give Obama any credit and will only give him blame.