I have no idea if this is the correct forum for this. Obviously, please move if necessary.
I’ve been thinking about this for weeks and have felt some trepidation about starting a thread, as if I might talk it into reality or something stupid like that, but it’s something I need to talk about.
With trump threatening to go to war against Venezuela and the Russia/Ukraine situation, among other unsettling news, I’m fearing that a much larger war is going to break out.
Once upon a time, I felt pretty certain that the US would never fight on the same side as Russia. I don’t feel that certainty anymore.
So I wonder if you guys have any thoughts on this. I don’t want irrational thoughts to have free rein in my head and I know that you guys can feed me more sensible thoughts.
Asshole authoritarian regimes only fight on the same side briefly before turning on one another.
If the US keeps moving farther post-trump into authoritarian international assholicness, you could find the two countries occupying similar niches as we stomp on and carve up the Americas to our liking while Russia (tries to) do the same in Europe. Perhaps with China joining in the feeding in south and southeast Asia.
Whether that would constitute a big-W “World War”, or simple a “world spanning set of individual conflicts” is for the historians to sort out later. If there are “sides” at all, it’s the side of the Bigs against the Smalls. But the Bigs aren’t a team; they’re just selfishly pursuing similar agendas that haven’t collided yet.
But eventually the Big 3 would end up with adjacent areas under their control. And then comes the failure of the mostly-amicable feast upon the Smalls. Somebody will fancy their chances to take some area from somebody else that they perceive as key to their own interests yet peripheral to the current owners’ interests. Maybe Russia wants the American colony formerly known as Japan. Maybe America wants the Russian vassal formerly known as Norway. But soon enough the “it’s never enough” assholes in charge will turn on each other.
I feel like if WW3 broke out any time soon, if this country is still being run in any way similar to how it’s run now, whatever side the US is on, it will be the wrong one.
The only scenario I could see cooperation happening is in some sort of us-against-terrorists scenario, like how Russia, the USA, and various mishmash nations all fought against ISIS in Syria even if they didn’t like each other. Or some global anti-piracy maritime campaign. And none of that counts as a “world war.”
I can’t fathom the USA and Russia teaming up to invade Poland or something like that.
I think Putin will talk Trump into a war, promising that Russia will “help”, but will then find excuses to delay that help after Trump gets it well stuck in. Putin will string him along with false promises and flattery while Trump digs himself in deeper and deeper, never realizing that he’s being played.
The CD did not unify the United States and the USSR, who appear to retain their separate identities and mutual distrust. The CD was only created for the shared benefit of the two member states. It does not govern either nation, and each state has been allowed to retain their government structures, nationalities, military forces, and to run their own internal affairs.
So yeah, I agree, both that it would be an alliance of convenience, and that it would end the moment one side or the other found it in the way.
Though, somewhat contrary to @Smapti, I expect there’d be a period (perhaps even a LONG period) of low-key conventional sparring until whatever “red line” gets crossed and a nuclear exchange happens.
TBH though, for as long as there is a sufficiency of nuclear armed “other” powers with long range delivery systems, I think we’ll end up with endless minor wars of conquest against non-peer nations rather than what I consider a “world war”.
Especially as modern conflicts move towards a more drone-forward style conflict, reducing the mitigating effect of maintaining morale when a procession of coffins (empty or not) keep returning home.
[ leaving out an aging, soon to die dictator on either side who just says “fuck it” and uses nukes for their own glory, having removed anyone who will make an effort to stop them ]
Might the US team up with Russia in a conflict? Yep. It wouldn’t surprise me if aid and intelligence was already surreptitiously being given to Russia, and we’ve seen their audience is pretty easy to dupe on this stuff*, so I can easily see something like this being sold to americans.
On WWIII though, this is tied into the question of against whom?
I think both the US and Russia respect China enough to leave it alone. And the middle east powers will just (continue to) buy off trump.
So the only scenario I see is a war against the EU / NATO. I know it sounds nuts typing this, but in a hypothetical world where Trump gets a third term, I can see it. I mean look at the current negotiations over Ukraine; not only is the US repeating translated Kremlin talking points (contrary to the perspective of America’s former allies), but they were talking about the US as something separate from NATO. And they have demonstrated contempt for Europe many times.
So a few more years of Trump, yeah, I can believe the US could side with Russia in a non-nuclear large-scale conflict. I only say a third term because I think it’s a stretch to imagine this shift being completed before 2028 but it does seem to be the direction we’re going.
\* Alas, not only in the US. I have a spanish friend, who watches a dude called Miguel Ruiz Calvo every day, and is 100% in the tank for Putin. Literally anything the west does to help Ukraine == unprovoked aggression, whereas anything Putin does, up to and including if he nuked Kiev == reasonable self defence. And of course everything that we hear about the war is “fake news”.
I know it’s a pointless aside, it’s just scary to see the transformation in an otherwise reasonable friend of mine.
I feel so helpless watching this happen. America will be hated by so much of the world. And it’s not just trump making this happen. There are very rich powerful people who are pulling his strings.
I went to my grandsons game last weekend. As I was watching these young boys play basketball, I noticed that there were several boys with kinky hair and brown skin, just like my grandson. I imagined ICE showing up and and so I looked around at all the dads and moms and I knew we would all fight. But if we called 911, whose side would they be on.
But even if we were successful in getting ICE to leave empty handed, this time, I imagined the trauma this would cause to all these kids.
This is so sickening to me. I am ashamed to be an American. Hell, I am ashamed to be human.