His surge likely had little or nothing to do with Palin. Polls generally show a post-convention bounce for candidates of either party.
Frankly, I doubt if his crash had anything to do with Palin, either. (After all, we’ve elected the likes of Dan Quayle to the office.) One of the reasons Clinton fought so tenaciously (practically to the last minute) was that a Democrat was going to win the 2008 election.
In fact, the polls were pretty even before the financial crash, for which the blame fell mostly on the Republicans. That was about the same time as Palin’s vapidity (and, by extension, McCain’s poor judgment) entered the public consciousness. Any sensible-seeming Dem candidate would have won after that, by about the same margin Obama did, or more.
You have no basis for that opinion. The young and the blacks turned out in record numbers for Obama. What makes you think they would have turned out for some other Dem?
I’m starting to think Palin actually wants to run as a third party candidate against Romney and Obama. I know people talk a lot about her fundraising skills, but would she actually be able to get enough money? I suppose not having to spend cash on primary elections means the bar is a little lower, plus she can get in relatively late in the game… but it’s not like she has Perot money.
Could she really raise enough dough to mount a legitimate third party campaign?
But once the primaries are over, there is going to be considerably less of that. So she either continues her media whoring as a third party candidate through the general election, or she goes back to being a B-list reality show subject.
Actually, the Republicans do have their version of superdelegates - most states get three (the ranking man and women on the state GOP committee, and the state’s RNC member, although in some states, they have to vote for whoever won that state’s primary). Okay, it’s not much, considering that each state gets at least 13 (20 for McCain-in-2008 states) “pledged” delegates, but they can make a difference.
However, “can” and “will” are two different things, and if it does get to the point where their votes can decide things, it is far more likely that they would get together and agree on one of the two who could be nominated with their votes rather than force enough ballots to free the delegates from their pledged candidates. If it is a two-horse race (and at the moment, all signs point in that direction), nobody else will get their foot in the door.
Palin may get lucky. The rest of the candidates are fucking up so badly that they may have to turn to her. I predicted they would beg Tony Soprano, oops I mean Christie to save them, but Huffpo says he rejected the offer.
She has been tainted by revelations of drugs and sex ,but the rest just will not do. keeping off the debate stage may have worked for her. repubs are not too bright and will forget what a stumbling idiot she is. She can talk like she is far right enough.
Palin said last night that becoming President would "shackle " her. Shackling Palin does have some sexual connotations that can not be ignored.
The woman sure as fuck has a huge ego, with no reason. But she suffers from pretty girl disease. Things are easier when you are pretty. After awhile you think breaks are your birthright and you expect them and deserve them. She is too stupid to realize how woefully unprepared and unqualified she is for the job of president.
“I’m going to keep repeating, though, Greta, through my process of decision-making with my family and with my close friends as to whether I should throw my name in the hat for the GOP nomination or not for 2012 — is a title worth it? Does a title shackle a person? Are they — someone like me, who’s a maverick — you know, I do go rogue and I call it like I see it.”
“Somebody like me — is a title and is a campaign too shackling? Does that prohibit me from being out there, out of a box, not allowing handlers to shape me and to force my message to be what donors or what contributors or what political pundits want it to be? Does a title take away my freedom to call it like I see it and to affect positive change that we need in this country? That’s the biggest contemplation piece in my process.”