Apart from the cost, I don’t see any real downside.
From what I have in the news so far, it was predicted that the House would foul it because they (of the Tea Party stripe) believe that if a single Mexican makes it across the border they will immediately take a job away from a hard-working American while simultaneously becoming a welfare millionaire and burdening the local emergency room with their need to simultaneously have abortions and give birth to anchor babies.
Best guess is that it won’t come out of the house. Something else may, but the one passed by the Senate will get torpedoed like the Farm Bill (which is normally the least controversial big measure of any term) was.
Whether it SHOULD pass? Feh. I have doubts it’ll change much so…feh.
The house has 201 Democrats, 234 Republicans, no independents. 218 Votes needed to pass.
I think most Democrats will vote for it, say 90% of them. that’s 180 votes right there. I’m not sure how many republicans are ‘tea party’ members - let’s say half, and let’s say none of them are voting for it. That’s 117 against. Of the ‘regular republican’ members, I could see half of them voting for it just to keep hispanics interested in the party - that’s 60 or so. 180 democrats + 60 ‘regular republicans’ is 240, plenty to pass.
I expect a lot of hullabaloo about it but I think it will pass.
It will only pass if Boehner waves the Hastert rule and lets Democrats pass it. And even then the Tea Party caucus may get a poison pill amendment in there killing the whole thing. So I’ll give it a 25% chance of passing the House.
Should it? Well, it’s not great but it’s probably the best possible at this point. Lots of security theater but also a pathway to citizenship for undocumented workers.
Should the House pass it? Of course. Will they? Not in its present form. They say it is all about preventing illegal border crossings, but even if the borders were made absolutely impenetrable, it would not satisfy them. They want to hurt those who are already here and are against a path to citizenship for the undocumented. Period.
Question: Is there a provision in the new bill to make it less onerous for Hispanics who desire to emigrate to the US to do so? I have always thought it ridiculous that my wife, who is Panamanian and had a Green card, spent years of interviews, document submissions, and waiting, before she was approved to be sworn in as a citizen.
Your analysis is missing a key point: Republicans who are not TP members are scared to death they will be “primaried” by a TP candidate if they vote for a so-called path to citizenship, which this bill contains. House members don’t care so much that the GOP struggles nationally. They do quite well in their (gerrymandered) districts, and most of what they worry about is a challenge from the TP wing.
True - I also forgot that Hastert rule.
My thinking though, is that house members DO want the endorsement of the national party, and Boehner is well aware of the national problems for the GOP, and so he will ignore the Hastert rule and pressure not TP members of the caucus because he’s trying to take the long view of what’s good for the party.
Of course, Boehner has not been that great at getting consesus from his own party, but I think he will manage this.
If Boehner allows the bill to pass it will cost him the Speakership. The Tea People will exact retribution on anyone who votes to support a path to citizenship. Anything that the House passes will be watered down and laced with poison pills and the conference committee won’t have much common ground to work with.
I won’t pass. Though by the end of the House process, their bill may be very similar.
Should it pass. Absolutely not. Why should anyone believe that the border will be secured? We’ve been hearing about this since 1986, and the result is the 12 million illegals we have today. In 2006, due to (supposed) desire to secure the border AND the recommendations of the 9/11 commission that we need to secure the border to keep potential terrorists out we were supposed to build a secure fence. Only a tiny part of it was completed. So, there is ZERO reason to believe that the douchebags in charge will do their constitutional duty and secure the border.
And that’s even ignoring the pork thrown into the bill.
You’d have to be a fool to believe that they will actually secure the border. We have been promised again and again that it will happen and it’s been a lie every time.
eVerify is even worse. Securing the border costs money and is fairly difficult. Forcing employers to verify their employees are citizens is cheap, easy and needs to be done now.
Americans are reasonable. We’ll be OK with some sort of path to citizenship. But only once the border is secured. Not after. Not at the same time. First things first.
Sounds like that makes eVerify better, not worse.
Why should people who broke the law by entering the US illegally be allowed to stay and become citizens?
Because they’re going to be here anyway so we might as well treat them like people?
Why shouldn’t they be deported?
Because it would cost eleventy billion dollars to deport 12 million people.
Because we need them and even if we didn’t we can’t deport them. Why would we want to deport them? Boehner will put the bill up for a vote once he sees that the House’s efforts to pass piece meal legislation will go absolutely nowhere. Right now he still has hope a House bill will be put together and that can go to conference with the Senate bill, which would basically end up with something very similar to what they have now but might allow him to keep his seat. If that falls through he will break the Hastert rule and take a cushy multimillion dollar job from big business once he loses the speakership.
What does it matter?
– is not North-Korean-level border security, but it’s something more secure than we have now, isn’t it?