The case for Specter leaving the GOP.
Snowe and Collins have been making noises like they might jump too.
For those two though party affiliation means little: they’ll vote how they feel they should and likely the same way whether they caucus one place or the other. Specter though … he’s possibly in a pickle.
I don’t know but that is really interesting and I will be eager to see what people here reply.
I don’t know about Maine, but Pennsylvania, I believe, has closed primaries. That could certainly increase the chances that he’d lose a Republican primary to a further-right candidate. And then that candidate would get creamed in the general.
ETA: Of course, that’s spelled out in the OP, so my post really doesn’t add anything, now does it?
That’s interesting. It would be very interesting to see. At this point I really want to see the GOP fail.
I actually don’t want to see the GOP fail, although it does seem this is a path they’ve selected for themselves. the best thing that could happen to the GOP, IMO, is the centrists (yeah, I know) somehow gaining influence over the party. I fear that democrats with unfettered power and no real opposition will be almost as damaging to the country as the Republicans have been/are.
As far as Specter is concerned, I’d be surprised if he left the Republican party, and doubly so if he became a Democrat. I think he believes he can have more of a singular impact if he remains a Republican and tries to guide the party toward sanity from within.
considering the heat Rush Limbaugh got for a similar statement, let me also say that I don’t want to see the GOP fail. I want to see its members bring their best ideas into the public debate, listen to their constituents and opponents, speak candidly and honestly, and exercise the principles they claim to believe in. Given those things, I can live with some difference in outlook.
If they don’t do that, and lose members because of it, I won’t shed any tears for them.
The GOP needs some time in the woods before it can recover.
Just today, fivethirtyeight.com’s new Senate rankings came out, noting that a new poll has Specter more popular among Democrats than Republicans, two thirds of whom want to replace him (I’ll note that their link to the poll seems broken, so I’m not sure about any further details. I suspect that Specter wants to stay in the Senate more than he cares about remaining loyal to the Republicans if they seem inclined to follow up on their threats to challenge him in the primary.
I don’t see it happening. In general elections, the other guy would basically have to walk on water to beat Specter. As a liberal Democrat, I’ve proudly voted Specter. Republicans would risk losing the general elections if they didn’t pick Specter as their candidate.
Which seems to be exactly what a good number of Republicans want to do, now that many of the saner ones have left. And with closed primaries, Specter fans like you can’t help him survive.
I think Snowe and Collins are likely to jump ship. New England is getting bluer by the minute, and the remaining Pubbies have little in common with the rest of the nations’ Pubs. Don’t think the electorate hasn’t noticed the disconnect and hasn’t gotten fed up with the Bible-thumpin’ gummint-hatin’ fans of Herbert Spencer. Moreover, I’ll bet Snowe and Collins haven’t forgotten what happened to Lincoln Chafee, the much-disliked-by-other-Pubbies liberal Republican Senator from Rhode Island who could’ve cruised to re-election if he were a Democrat…but didn’t because he wasn’t.
My guess is they’ll go together, kinda like when chicks go to the bathroom together. 
Specter is another matter. I think he thinks that he can weather the storm of his alienation from the GOP and yet still be the eventual architect of the reform of the GOP. This will be his undoing.
On what issues precisely do they align with the (real or imagined) Republican party? Pretty much all the news I’ve heard about all three of them is about how they’re voting with Obama on this, that, and the other thing. Surely there’s some important issues where they differ, or they wouldn’t wear that R by their names in the first place.
I don’t want to see the GOP fail. De facto one-party hegemony can never be a good thing. I was incensed when Repubs were trying appallingly hard to get it to happen, and I’d be no happier seeing the Democrats do something similar.
I wouldn’t know how to advise Specter, however (if I were in a position to do so.) A true Catch-22 for him. Personally, I’d prefer to see him stay GOP and win his reelection, and be a force for getting the GOP’s act back together.
I fear you’re right, but I hope not. I rather would seem him indeed be the architect of the reform of the GOP.
He is, I believe, 79 years old. Will he run again? I know being a US Senator is probably one of the most addictive behaviors ever envisioned.
He’s had his own party in PA and nationally dump on him for various stands and votes. That said, I still don’t see a switch. Being a “Maverick” gets him attention.
I respect many of his positions and opinions. The GOP should be moving in his direction instead of the current path to more extremist stances and protests.
Arlen S. is one shrewd mofo, and has an excellent grasp on Pa. nuance. The GOP running Toomey is a triumph of hope over experience, the sound and fury of fringe foamers.
Many people think Pa. is red but for Philly and Pittsburgh, and you could easily raise the rabble in the flyover, but they don’t always vote where their mouth is. Witness Santorum.
I don’t think he’ll jump ship, but will agree about pickles…just think they’ll end up Kosher.
Nah, Rendell is pretty non-observant. 
I’ve heard Toomey described as an intelligent Santorum. I also know Pennsylvanians who said that the only reason people were able to vote for the frothy mixture was because he was too stupid to do too much damage. So, if they primary Specter, who’s running for the Dems? I’d assume any competent Dem would win in a walk, though of course there’s no guarantee of a competent Dem running.
Although I don’t like the idea of one-party rule, I also don’t like the idea that any 41 senators can block a vote on anything they don’t like and the Republican Bloc is (with the three obvious exceptions) monolithic. Living in Canada, I have come to appreciate the fact that a majority government can essentially impose any legislation it likes, subject only to the fears of losing the next election. That is why a Liberal government was able to impose medicare in 1971. A substantial part of our taxes pay for it too, but still our per capita medical costs are 2/3 of the US.
I suspect that if Specter gets a strong Republican challenge in the PA primary, then some strong Dem will run. Maybe Rendell, although he has ruled it out. (I heard from someone in a position to know…something…that there is a hidden sex scandal there, though.)
They all claim the party left them. The 25 % base the repubs have is a nasty group ,who control and punish severely. Their agenda is far removed from the mainstream. But, they seem to be unshakable.
Snowe is the most popular Senator in the US (as judged by her approval rating amongst her constituents). Collins was just easily re-elected in a tough year for Republicans. They may jump ship for philosophical reasons, but neither needs to do so to stay in the senate.
Specter, on the other hand, will have to win two tough elections (primary and general) to stay in 2010. I think it’s pretty clearly in his advantage electorally speaking,to change his party affiliation. But then, presumably he is a Republican for a reason, so loyalty or philosophy may make him stay in the GOP.