Will Specter leave the GOP?

[BrainGlutton]

@Equipoise

Or like the batshit insane wing of the Republican party who believe that President Obama is an illegal alien/communist/socialist/Marxist. They’re just so sure that it’ll all come to light and Obama will be impeached. Any day now.

Why do you think we waited to put him in until the Dems were in control of Congress? Heh-heh-heh . . .

[Measure_for_Measure]

@Chronos

Another factor is that right-wingers mostly associate with other right-wingers. If all of the folks in your social circle have some particular quality, then it’s easy to jump to the conclusion that most folks, period, share that quality. This isn’t limited to right-wingers, either: For any personality trait or view or whatever you care to name, most people with that trait will tend to associate with others like themselves.

Some of the polarization of American politics has been blamed at gerrymandering, and it is true that computer modeling has advanced since the paper and pencil days of the 1970, 1980 censuses and earlier.

But for some reason, political scientists have judged the gerrymandering effect to be small. Rather, like people seem to be sorting themselves into more politically homogeneous geographic districts.

Most strikingly, political polarization has become akin to political segregation. You are less likely to live near someone whose politics differ from your own. It’s well known that fewer states are competitive in presidential races than in decades past. We find similar results at the county level. In 1976, only 27 percent of voters lived in landslide counties where one candidate prevailed by 20 points or more. By 2004, 48 percent of voters lived in such counties.

Cite. Drilling down, it seems that some educational sorting is going on, as college grads etc move to high tech areas, and gentrification pushes out the less educated. And education unsurprisingly correlates with political preferences. Then again, perhaps it’s the urban experience of rubbing shoulders with people who don’t look like you that shapes political outlook.

Regardless, it seems that political minorities tend to shift towards the views of the local political majority, as the majorities themselves become more extreme.

[Chronos]

Social circles aren’t entirely geographic, either. Even if your next-door neighbors have politics opposite your own, you probably don’t go to the same church as them, or work the same place, or engage in the same hobbies, or whatever else. And all of those will have at least some correlation with politics.

[DSeid]

Specter approached but doesn’t seem to want to switch.

Ed Rendell told RNN-TV, a regional cable news channel in the Northeast, that he has in fact tried to talk GOP Senator Arlen Specter into switching to the Democrats – oh, and so have some other important people, who Rendell probably shouldn’t have mentioned.

“We’ve tried,” said Rendell. “Myself, Senator Casey, Vice President Biden have tried to talk him into it, but he’s bound and determined to stay a Republican.”

Ah well. For now.

[Equipoise]

Specter won’t rule out run as an Independent

Sen. Arlen Specter said Tuesday that he will not run for reelection in 2010 as a Democrat, but might run as an Independent.

The Pennsylvania Republican has been under tremendous pressure from the GOP base since being one of just three Republicans to vote for the Democratic-led stimulus package last month.

He said in an interview with The Hill that the role of the Republican Party in Washington is too vital for him to switch to the Democratic side.

“I’m staying a Republican because I think I have a more important role to play there,” he said. “I think the United States very desperately needs a two-party system. … And I’m afraid that we’re becoming a one-party system, with Republicans becoming just a regional party.”

At the same time, Specter said he is open to the possibility of running as an Independent with the understanding that he would caucus with Republicans, just as Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) did with Democrats in 2006. Though he left that option on the table, he suggested it would be a last resort.

“It’s pretty hard to run without a party,” Specter said. “It’s always something that could be a possibility. But then I wouldn’t be in the Republican caucus — wouldn’t have quite the standing as a Republican.”

…

[Simplicio]

Specter announced he won’t support breaking a filibuster on the Employee Free Choice Act (contentious pro-union legislation). He had previously voted for the legislation, so I’d say his reversal here pretty strongly suggests he’s going to try and hang in there as a member of the GOP.

Should be a very interesting race next year.

[Steve_MB]

@Simplicio

Specter announced he won’t support breaking a filibuster on the Employee Free Choice Act (contentious pro-union legislation). He had previously voted for the legislation, so I’d say his reversal here pretty strongly suggests he’s going to try and hang in there as a member of the GOP.

I think it’s more likely a sign that he’s calling it quits (and burnishing his resume for a retired-GOP-politican job), given the political realities on the ground in Pennsylvania.

[asterion]

I think his only options at this point are to retire or prepare to be primaried. Either outcome is good for the Democrats in Pennsylvania. Even if he survives the primary, I don’t see him winning without the help of labor.

[DSeid]

It makes it clear that he won’t switch to run as a Democrat anyway, and with that possibility removed it is a high probability that Rendell will run on the Dem side. Rendell would stay out of the way if Specter was going to run as a Dem but staying out when Specter is likely to even not win the primary? I don’t think he feels he owes his old boss that much.

[Simplicio]

@Steve_MB

I think it’s more likely a sign that he’s calling it quits (and burnishing his resume for a retired-GOP-politican job), given the political realities on the ground in Pennsylvania.

He’ll be like 81 in 2010, I doubt he needs to hedge for a second career beyond elder statesman. I really think this indicates he plans on giving a GOP primary run a try.

And he may yet win, I suspect the GOP will at least start to realize their current efforts to run out the moderates is costing them more votes then its gaining before the next election.