Will the 2020 Democratic convention be contested?

Politics & Elections
41

At this point anything is possible. My money is still on Biden winning fairly easily, though. Look at some recent statewide polls:

New York: Biden 24%, Warren 14%, Sanders 13%, Buttigieg 5%

Georgia: Biden 31%, Warren 14%, Sanders 14%, Buttigieg 4%

Texas: Biden 28%, Warren 19%, Sanders 18%, Buttigieg 8%

So Biden has big leads in several big states, and thus the potential to pick up big hauls of delegates. Buttigieg is not competitive in these places. Barring a major shift, he won’t get any delegates in most states, which is why I expect he’ll drop out after Super Tuesday. I expect the other minor-leaguers will be out by then as well. And while it’s hard to predict such things, it seems reasonable that when the Klobuchars and Bookers and Bennets and Steyers finally accept reality and leave the race, most of their supporters will drift to the centrist candidate, which will be Biden.

He has other advantages:

[ul]
[li]High support among old people. Old people are the most likely to vote, least likely to decide they won’t bother for some frivolous reason.[/li][li]He has high support among black voters, a group with a tendency to not change their choice en masse at the last minute.[/li][li]And he still has the high name recognition, the endorsements, and the general perception that inertia will carry him through.[/li][/ul]

42

This would be like the 2008 scenario which is of course what Mayor Pete is hoping for. It could happen of course but I suspect there are cultural barriers to Pete attracting a lot of older black voters even if he wins IA/NH. At the end of the day he is obviously not Obama.

Let’s not forget that Pete is only at 8 points nationally. He could get a big boost and still not be the clear leader. Conversely Biden could lose 5-10 points and still remain standing. Basically all four would be closely bunched at around 20.

As for Pete winning IA/NH it doesn’t seem unlikely at all. He is up by 6 in RCP in IA and within a couple of points of Warren in NH (and up by 10 in the latest poll). He has momentum, money and by all accounts excellent campaigning skills. He is likely to win one IMO and could plausibly win both.

43

All groups of voters, Democrats and Republicans, seem to me to have even less willingness than normal to change their choice.

Trump’s approval polling numbers have been very steady compared to past presidents.

Given the weaknesses of all four front-runners, a moderate governor, equivalent to Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton, should be starting to surge in Democratic polls. And none is.

As for the four front-runners, here’s why they all are, to me as a Democrat, high-risk:

Biden - The way his son profited, in Ukraine, from his Dad’s vice-presidency, is both legal and a legitimate scandal. And the way it is mixed up with impeachment makes it hard to be forgotten.

Warren - There’s no way around that the Pocahontas slur will lose millions of votes.

Sanders - At age 39, he was a candidate, for presidential elector, of a Trotskyite Communist party. Not just is too old – looks too old. And he had a heart attack during the current campaign. Are you kidding?

Buttigieg - Now age 37 and mayor of a town with population 101,000. He would be the least qualified U.S. President ever – with one admitted exception.

Trump’s shtick will be to claim that the Democratic candidate is as abnormal as he is. Nominating a normal boring Democratic governor, like Gina Raimondo, who isn’t running, or Steve Bullock, who is, would undercut this. But the crowd now running, and having a realistic chance of nomination, gives Trump what he wants and needs on a platter.