(Inspired from the “Why don’t you support Bernie” thread, and a look at today’s FiveThirtyEight projections).
Ok. Super Tuesday has passed. Your state’s primary is coming up. The votes are lined up so Bernie has a plurality but not a majority - but your state could put him to an outright majority. Unfortunately (for moderates), the moderate vote is split between Biden, Buttigieg, and Bloomberg, and split enough that none of them have a really clear lead. If all the moderates got together and agreed on one candidate, they would have a majority. But it’s too late for the voters to do that job.
If your state goes mostly Bernie, he gets the nomination. If not - contested convention - maybe a moderate would come out on top, but it would be messy.
How do you vote?
(Anyone who says “but this is why ranked voting…” loses 2 debate points).
The only semi-prominent Democrats I’d prefer a contested convention over would be Tulsi Gabbard and Tom Steyer. Not that I’m registered as a Democrat or anything.
I think this poll would be more meaningful if you restricted it to self-identified moderates. As it is you can’t know how many of the “Bernie” votes are from actual Bernie supporters.
My feeling would not change regardless of the year or the race. In the primary I would always vote for my choice without regard for election strategy or whatever. My choice will be one of the moderates. In the general election I decide on the lesser of two evils.
My state will go democrat regardless of who is the nominee so in th general it won’t matter at all.
I don’t see a messy contested convention as a horrible thing, so long as immediately afterwards there is a big and sincere show of unity. It’s enough time to circle the wagons. Meanwhile it dominates the news cycle, not Trump’s tweets.
If the circumstance was a Sanders plurality but a clear moderate majority, then I strongly expect the decision to be made by the third vote at the latest, with most moderate pledged delegates moving to the moderate delegate leader and the supers following their lead.
If this Bernie voter is in any way representative of a majority or even substantial minority of Bernie voters, the D’s will be in trouble in November (assuming Bernie is in the lead but gets replaced by another nominee).
Bernie got 13 million votes in the 2016 primary. He will get less votes in the 2020 primary because there are more than 2 viable candidates, so maybe he will get 8-10 million votes (probably less).
Of those 8-10 million votes, a small % will be hardcore Bernie supporters, but probably only a million or so. A million hardcore voters sitting out could swing an election, but hopefully they are located mostly in urban areas in blue states.
All of the democrats are proposing fairly leftward legislation on issues like health care and taxes by historical standards. They’re all vastly better than Trump.
The Bernie subreddit is the most toxic and fanatical place on this planet.
Not quite sure where the OP is going. IF and only IF, we end up with such a situation, Superdelegates, who vote in the second round will decide the nomination, then they’ll start openly endorsing the strongest candidate.
As I’ve said, we’ll be down to Sanders vs Not-Sanders in a month or so
[From the history desk:]
At the 1912 Democratic convention, Woodrow Wilson became the nominee on the 46th ballot. Speaker Champ Clark led on the first 29 ballots, even attaining a majority when New York switched from Harmon on the 9th ballot. But simple majority was not enough; William Jennings Bryan asked to speak and stirred delegates when he accused Clark of being Wall Street’s tool. Wilson took over the lead on the 30th ballot, had a simple majority by the 43rd ballot, and the required 2/3 majority on the 46th ballot. (A “47th ballot” was held choosing Wilson unanimously.)
Franklin Delano Roosevelt was chosen on the 4th ballot in 1932. (He’d gotten a simple majority on each of the first three ballots.) This was the last time the Democrats required a 2/3 majority to nominate, and the last time a nominee who failed to win on the first ballot went on to become President. (Wilkie, Dewey and Stevenson came after 1932 and required multiple ballots to win their party’s nomination, but each was defeated in November.)
I didn't know how to vote in the poll. Perception is key — we don't want D voters turned off by bad perceptions. But at this point voters are assaulted on all sides by lies and fake news. Does true news even matter anymore?
Hell maybe that’s what is needed to get people interested and engaged. A contested convention will be interesting at least. The conventions are usually snoozefests.
As a spectator, a brokered convention would be the ideal outcome. There hasn’t been one in my lifetime. I want to stock up on popcorn and watch something to rival the 1924 convention - a record 103 ballots.
It won’t matter who gets chosen, even if they win, unless the senate also switches. And even then, unless they abolish the filibuster. The senate Republicans will have only one objective–to destroy their presidency.
I didn’t see a Warren option there (ETA: so I didn’t vote in the poll), but ISTM that if Bernie doesn’t have a majority but is close, then Warren would be the natural compromise candidate.
And since she’s my preferred candidate, then the more delegates she has, going into whatever negotiations go on, the better.
According to the Call for the Convention, there are 3768 “pledged” delegates (although it is possible that some may be uncommitted), and currently 767 (or 768) superdelegates:
440 members of the Democratic National Committee
235 members of the House of Representatives
45 Senators (or 46, if Sanders, who signed an “I am a Democrat” pledge as part of the requirements to be considered a candidate, is included)
(note that the Call lists only 278 members of Congress, and does not include Sanders among them)
23 state governors
The mayor of Washington, DC (other mayors are not superdelegates, but DC is treated as a state, so its mayor is treated as a state governor)
Former Presidents Obama, Clinton, and Carter
Former VPs Biden, Gore, and Mondale
17 “others,” consisting of former DNC chairs and former Democratic House/Senate leaders who are not still in Congress
If it does come down to a second ballot, and Sanders and Warren have a majority (including the superdelegates) between them, I see one of them withdrawing under the assumption their delegates will vote for the other progressive. In fact, if they have a majority of the pledged delegates between them, I can see Warren (presumably with fewer delegates) withdrawing, and releasing her delegates, before the first ballot - assuming that’s allowed.
The only rule I can find about who a delegate “has to” vote for is, “All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them”; presumably, this means, “If you were pledged to a progressive who withdraws, then you should vote for another progressive; similarly, if you were pledged to a moderate who withdraws, then you should vote for another moderate.”
I don’t think you can presume that. There isn’t two categories you can simply split all candidates into meaningfully. Mostly political junkies do that , not voters. The polling on second choices does not reflect all the Warren people want Bernie as a backup. All the Biden people don’t have Buttigieg as their second choice.
Whatever keeps Bernie off the ballot. He would be a giant pinata for Republicans to pummel with hammers and sickles. Fuck the Bernie Bros, we need someone who can win.