Will the predicted Cold War II bring about more instability and violence?

We are, we’re just too polite to brag about it.

Not really. The economic model in Belarus is very different than in Russia. (Russia is a capitalist country run by a government of the center-right, Belarus still has a largely centrally planned and state-run economy, and is the closest thing to a Soviet remnant left). On foreign policy, Lukashenko officially went on record criticizing the Russian intervention in Donetsk & Lugansk.