Will the Sotomayor pick impact the Hispanic vote?

Yep, that’s my recollection of events as well.

Actually, Tom Tildrum does have a point here. It is a well known stereotype that blacks are sexually uncontrollable, promiscuous, aggressive, and want nothing more in life than to steal your white women (or men).

The Hill/Thomas show just played into the fears of racist whites about blacks. That it devolved into a sexual farce was simply a confirmation of what whites thought about blacks anyway.

Here is a link to the transcript of Sotomoyer’s now controversial Cal-Berkeley speach

Link

In context, what the judge said was

My hunch is, and it is only a hunch, is that the subtext of the judge’s speach is, “I don’t know about all Latina women, but I personally am smarter than those bozos on the Court now.” :slight_smile:

Obama doesn’t really need to increase his Hispanic vote. If he keeps what he got last year he will be a long way to winning re-election. In that light the Sottomayor was, in electoral terms, a defensive pick, a significant gesture to consolidate his Hispanic support not expand it. Also a fairly obvious pick and not some kind of bold stroke.

However the batshit crazy reaction of the GOP has made this a major political win for Obama. The problem is the Republican attacks seem to be focussed on her Latina background including absurdly the way she pronounces her name and what food she likes. It's brought out the worst in the Republican coalition: Tancredo, Liddy and of course Limbaugh and I don't think Hispanic moderates are going to like what they see or consider the GOP a party that is friendly to them.

And contrary to Nate Silver's speculation, the GOP can't write off Hispanics. Republicans can't take the McCain states for granted; Arizona is almost certainly going to be in play in 2012 and will be difficult to win without Hispanic support. Regaining Florida without Hispanics will be very difficult as well. And without Florida and the Western states it's almost impossible for the GOP to win the presidency. They would have to sweep the Mid-West as well as win other states like Pennsylvania and Virginia.

It’d be a mistake to think Obama didn’t anticipate this. He knew either they’d be scared of race-baiting and go easy on her, or they would throw caution to the wind and let the crazy run free. Just so long as he picked a smart, impeccably qualified (which he did), this was going to be a win-win for him no matter how the GOP reacted.

FTR, La Raza is simply the Latino equivalent of the NAACP and not, say, the Latino equivalent of the Black Panther Party or the KKK.