Will the Tesla Model 3 revolutionize Amercan driving?

Great Debates
41

Yes, unless we’re misunderstanding what he was calculating it looks like his math was wrong. But you seem to be quoting the maximum possible cost rather than a more realistic one.

First, it’s more efficient to charge with 220V, and no one would normally use 110V for that kind of charging anyway as it would take almost 4 days! That brings the same charging load down to $11.88. Second, Ontario, like many jurisdictions, has lower rates in off-peak times. It has about the same average rate as the US national average, but $0.08/Kwh off-peak. So if charging overnight you’re looking at $7.92 for a full charge, or half your calculated amount.

Looked at another way, someone driving a moderate annual average of 40 miles a day (just under 15,000 miles/year) would be paying $1.06 per day if charging at night, and could complete the charge in an hour and 21 minutes.

Of course all those costs are out the window if one has access to a free supercharger station.

42

Brakes last longer due to the strong regeneration. You really only need them for the last ~5 mph when coming to a stop. Just about everyone loves the “one foot driving” that this enables (after getting used to it a bit).

I’m friends with a couple of families with young kids and a Tesla. One thing about kids is that they come with mountains of crap to haul along–baby seats and strollers and diaper bags and whatever else. Teslas have huge internal storage; if you don’t want a minivan or SUV, this is the next best thing.

43

It’s a pretty minor thing to fit suitable outlets into a carpark if required.

44

Not too many Teslas in North Dakota or Arkansas?

45

I’m assuming at least one battery change, and possiblity two will be required before 250,000 miles. How much will maintenance be relative to a gasoline car?

46

If batteries become standardized, the scenario I see:

Gas tanker truck become battery carrier - drops off charged batteries, picks up discharged ones for recharging and returns to:

Refinery/Fuel storage tank becomes mass battery recharging station tied directly into grid.

Motorist, low on range, pulls into: Gas station now has bays which are loaded with re-charged batteries and swap per previous post.

The roles stay the same, the customer can pull into a battery-sway bay as easily as driving into a car wash.

47

I don’t see how battery swapping would to work. The batteries are worth thousands of dollars, a good chunk of the car’s value. You’re going to go to a gas station and casually swap them for some other random person’s batteries? You could get old, worn-out batteries, damaged ones, or counterfeits. There would be a massive incentive to trade lousy batteries for good ones. How would they ensure that all of the batteries are up to spec?

48

Not necessarily. The most recent data says that you have 94% capacity after 50k miles, and 1% loss per 30k miles after that. If that pattern holds, you should still have >85% capacity after 250k miles.

The Roadster did worse, with 85% capacity after only 100k miles, but it used a different chemistry and had less sophisticated battery management.

If you baby the battery, avoiding superchargers whenever possible and not charging to the full amount, you can extend the lifetime by quite a bit.

49

One of the moms at my kid’s day care drives a Tesla. (a white one) So I see a Tesla with a baby seat at least once a week.

50

Here’s an article about a battery swap in about 3 minutes during a pilot program.

And the video of it happening.

Not sure the viability of this but it looks cool.

51

Perhaps for the lunatic fringe and those who wish to be seen driving the latest. For the average joe, i highly doubt it.

52

This is the rub, with 300 miles of range, who exactly is going to be low on range?

According to the chart here, about 99% of car trips are under 100 miles in length.

There are not many people who drive nearly 300 miles in a day and are still too far away to plug in at their home charger, or a charger at a hotel.

53

Plug-in hybrids are a good compromise. My daughter and son-in law live in a loft in downtown LA and have a Volt, and have no problem charging it in their garage. Charging stations are going to be more and more required as time goes on.
My next car would probably be one. I can make it back and forth to work on one charge pretty easily, and will have the gas engine for long trips.

54

The idea of capital is exemplified in at least two competitive forms, such as:

  1. Petroleum based fuel
  2. Electricity

If transportation is demanded by people then people will pay for transportation fuel.

Which fuel is less expensive than the other, and how are those costs determined at any moment, and what happens to the higher priced fuel when more people convert to the lower priced fuel?

One of the plans for Tesla is already well underway in California. At the local restaurant there is free rapid charging stations for Tesla motors Model S automobiles.

The infrastructure is already being built.

Rolling out a competitive Volkswagen (people’s car) may not be the best next step, for some reasons, if not for other reasons.

Which Taxi service will be converting to electric once the petroleum costs render those Taxi services non-competitive?

How about UPS, Fed X, and any delivery service dependent upon light transportation vehicles and associated costs of fuel.

Just recently in California the subsidizing of corporate Power/Utility/Electric monopolies was cut back and the statutes demanded that producers of electricity, at homes, would be reimbursed by corporate electric monopolies for home grown electric production. The statute previous to this change allowed the corporate electric monopolies to sell a home owners excess Solar electric production and keep the profits without reimbursement to the home owner. That will tend to drive down electric prices in California as more and more Californians are converting to home grown power.

Even if petroleum prices drop, and keep dropping, the electric power competition is also dropping, and typically at a faster rate.

There is an economic law at work that can be expressed in one sentence.

Power produced into oversupply reduces the price of power while purchasing power increases because power reduces the cost of production.

Power is a capital good that operates in economy in the same way as legal tender; without the “unintended consequences” known as “inflation,” or “quantitative easing,” or “austerity measures.”

55

I don’t see how battery swapping will work.

The drivers own their batteries. Are they gonna want to swap for someone else’s battery that may have been misused/abused? What happend if they swap in a “new” battery which (presumably) is owned by someone else, and if craps out 20 miles down the road. What if someone swaps out a nearly dead battery and gets a nice fresh one.

Tesla will, I think, have to take over ownership of all these batteries and maintain them or replace them as needed. I don’t know how that would work.

56

The first cars were electric, and used battery swapping. But it was a simpler time.

57

What do you drive that has a 500-mile range? Most cars seem to fall around 300-350, since smaller cars have smaller gas tanks, and that seems to be the working point for design - the optimum point between engineering, cost, and buyer expectations.

I tend to have had somewhat bigger vehicles (big family, stuff to move, avoided long commutes) but I’m trying to think of one that would go much past 300 before needing a fill-up.

Point being, it may not be realistic for an e-car to match the top level of vehicle range without another generation or two of development. Meeting the average should be more than enough to make them widely acceptable.

58

It’s entirely possible I simply blew the math.

59

I drive a Mazda 3, a pretty common midsize car. 42 mpg on the highway times a 16 gallon tank – nearly 700 mile range. Even at 35 mpg in the city, it’s well over a 500 mile range.

60

My idea is for most people, the revolution will be that the Tesla would be their first car: commuting to work, going shopping, visiting friends, etc. with the gascar being the second car for long road trips.