And after a while of that, they realize that the road trips where the charging time is an issue are so rare as to be not worth considering, and that they can just rent if the problem ever arises (just like today, where if I need to carry seven passengers, or haul some plywood, or move a bunch of furniture, I just rent).
I think one big thing that will come out of the Model 3 is just sheer mindshare. The Model S is only common in a few areas like California and Norway. Outside of these places, it’s not just that most people don’t have one; it’s that most people don’t even know someone with one. So they can’t even chat with someone and get a sense of how the car works in the real world and all the advantages and disadvantages they have.
The Model 3–even though it will still sell in small numbers compared to Toyota or GM–will be prevalent enough that just about everyone will know someone with one. This familiarity will reduce some of the fear about electric cars, and this will spread to cars from other makers as well.
The other automakers still don’t seem to get that you can’t just take a conventional auto platform, stick a motor and battery in it, and have a decent electric car.
Every other electric car has their motor fill up the under-hood compartment, and the battery–despite being a fraction of the size–intrudes on the passenger space. Tesla on the other hand actually designed an electric car, and avoided these problems by taking advantage of the properties of batteries and electric motors.
The others also don’t seem to get a key principle behind batteries, which is that power density is as important as energy density. A large battery gets you more than just range–it also means you can charge and discharge at a higher rate. So a Tesla with a 250 mi battery can charge at a far higher “miles per hour” than a Leaf or any other vehicle.
Furthermore, the competitors have recognized this to some extent, but their solution has been to use special cell chemistries that have higher inherent power densities. But these have the downside of lower energy density and higher cost. So they have paid triple for the lower range.
It’s possible that Tesla’s competitors will learn the lessons eventually. But they’ve had years to do so already and haven’t yet. The major automakers may simply be too sclerotic to come out with a competitor in the near future. We’ll see, though.
It really pisses me off enormously that I can’t afford a Tesla Model S, especially since my typical driving is far enough to consume significant gas but well within the Tesla’s range. The car is a no-holds-barred attempt by an insane genius to push the envelope of technology. It’s beautiful, it’s reliable, and Motor Trend not only named it “Car of the Year”, they said it was the best car of any kind they had ever tested. From what I hear customer service is like you can only dream of from other automakers – any serious problems get the immediate attention of engineering. Airlines get that kind of attention from Boeing, but Joe Sixpack doesn’t get it from Ford or GM.
Of course this will all change eventually and they’ll probably have to go to some type of dealer network model, where a slimy guy with a pencil mustache and motor oil in his hair tells you that your warranty problem isn’t going to be fixed because “it’s normal and they’re all like that”, but this is like one of those rare moments in history when you can experience something really special.
I feel like the adoption rate won’t be fast enough to overtake what I predict to be more of a renter’s model. I have a feeling that as automated cars start getting adoption in 5-10 years, we’ll rather quickly transition to a model where instead of owning your car, you pull up an Uber-like app and one zips over to you and drops you off, for very cheap costs.
I think car ownership is going to fade away except for enthusiasts, the rich, or people who live out in the middle of nowhere. (The first two sort of being like horses or limos, respectively).
Now, the electric cars could become the automated cars, definitely. In fact, they’d be especially good with this model because the local Google car depot could easily just have chargers.
I just don’t think, even at a good price point, consumer electric car consumption will outpace what I think is a logical next step once automated cars are market-ready. I’m not saying every college town is going to be Car Depot Ready by 2030, or anything, I just think the growth rate of one will outpace the growth rate of the others. Especially in large cities where things like Uber and cab usage are already common.
Emphasis added. Most people don’t own two cars. Probably true for families, but not individuals. A two-parent family can probably easily get by with one car of limited range, but we’re seeing more and more households every year that are NOT two-parent families. This is still going to be a plan for the more well-off.
When families own two cars, they seem to be of equivalent size etc. rather than a carefully chosen mix. An SUV and a minivan, two sedans, a pickup and and SUV, etc. The idea that people will buy, say, a minivan and a Fiat 500 for different uses seems to be in a minority, however good an idea it might be on paper.
I think we are still a number of years from anything like an average family having an electric car as a ‘regular’ second vehicle, meaning, as JM says, that they will tend to be a second or third vehicle for somewhat wealthier families for that same era. It may defy logic and real capability, but given the choices for a second vehicle that will hold the kids, dog, stuff from Home Depot etc. I’d bet most families of moderate means choose a gasser over an e-car.
It’s a good point and might even be true, though it hardly impacts Tesla’s plans at all. If anything, it is a huge boon to them. Even the Model 3 will be more expensive (upfront) than the gasoline equivalent, and amortizing that cost over more people makes the capital cost less important.
Charging an electric autonomously is easier than fueling a gas car; electrics just need a parking space with an inductive charging mat below it. They can be anywhere that the grid reaches, as compared to gas stations which are relatively rare. So you can stuff little rental spots just about wherever. Like ZipCar, except that the cars always start with a full “tank” and they come to you.
And of course Tesla is among the leaders in autonomous driving tech, so they have a leg up in that department as well. All in all, I think Tesla would be happy if people switched to a rental model.
That said, while I do think that certain big segments of the population (urban millenials) will be happy to switch to this model, there will still be big chunks that don’t, and it won’t just be the rich.
If the Tesla is sufficiently cheaper to operate, you could rent a gasoline car for longer road trips and still come out ahead. For most people, it should also be fairly trivial to swap a car with a friend for a week.
Maybe this won’t be the electric car that passes the break-even point (in respect to both cost and convenience) with gasoline cars, but I’d say it’s a step in the right direction.
Most households (~60%) are still multi-vehicle. I think it was KPMG that predicted a slow decline to 50% by 2040, but I’ve not actually read the white paper. So there will be many millions of second vehicles to sell for years.
Maybe not a revolution, though, if it’s only second vehicles.
A 200 to 300 mile range would entice me, but then again I would hope my own company would manufacture one. For road trips (which I take frequently) I would continue to use my large SUV with an ICE. Actually, I would love to see PHEV (plugin) large SUV’s that give me a short 15 to 50 mile all-electric range, and then use the ICE when necessary.
On my recent visit out west I had the opportunity to spend some time with my dad’s Ford C-Max Energi, which is the PHEV version of the standard HEV. For getting around town (Las Vegas) we were on pure electric power the whole time. For longer drives into California, standard, easy-to-fill gasoline went into the tank to power the small ICE. I thought it was an excellent compromise.
The company I work for also sells a pure electric vehicle, but I think it’s range is only 100 miles. It’s not enough that I would ever consider it for going back and forth to work in my home location.
Will the Model 3 change the industry? Nope, but the industry will change the industry. No company is an island.
I could see a scenario where you don’t really own your battery. I mean, one will come with your car and you’ll pay for it, but it’s really cheap to swap out. I can see the machine that swaps the battery performing a diagnostic check on the removed battery and sending it off for repair if necessary. All this labor/technology of the swap and diagnostics/repair will be covered by a fee at the swap station.
An idea just hit me - charging stations at gas stations using existing infrastructure. Probably won’t work fir the local Circle K or Shell station but put in a supercharger at the truck stops like the Flying J. Take a 30 minute break while your Tesla is charging: pee, get supplies, eat a Subway sandwich, etc.
Since they haven’t put in Superchargers at existing gas stations, I’d wager that they were curiously resistant to this idea. Instead, they’re putting them into parking lots for convenience stores, fast-food places and motels.
This is me speculating, but electric cars are probably not something that the fossil fuel industry wants to encourage. They want people to think that it’s inconvenient to recharge. That may be why the charging stations that I’ve seen are near places to pee and get a sandwich, but not your traditional gas stations.
For what reason would you plug in your car at a roadside business and pay .15/kWh when you can pay .10/kWh at home, which you always do every single time you park your car at home?
There is literally no reason to ever do that except when you risk running out of juice before you get home, a seriously unlikely scenario when your range is 300+miles. Not a scenario “every roadside business” can use to build a sideline business with. It costs money to install chargers, your revenues have to cover those costs.
If Tesla wnts this to be a reasonable choice as a primary car, then they have to either significantly increase the range, or somehow convince people that a recharge is so fast and convenient that the range is no deterrent (which I doubt is possible). So clearly they want to set up a national network of re-charging stations, which will certainly be needed even if they double the range. In fact, stations will be more imporrtant than ever, because doubling the range will mean a bunch more people may give it a shot as their sole vehicle.