But look at the premise as originally stated. It was not “Will the Tesla 3 be the highest selling BEV?” We must allow that Tesla may revolutionize driving indirectly. Take me as an example. I want a Tesla. If I didn’t have to put $7-8K into rebuilding two engines I would be making my deposit in March. So Tesla has gotten me into electric cars. Now maybe if Tesla 3’s timeline starts sliding back and I need a new car and I realize the new Bolt is not too bad and I really need a new car right now. But you know the new BMW has some features I like and with the subsidies …
The point is that the reason I bought an electric car was because of Tesla even if I end up never buying a Tesla.
I’m an actual example of that. My husband was entranced by the Tesla, but it’s not something that we can readily afford, so I am driving a C-Max plug-in hybrid. About 2/3 of our total miles to date on the car are electric. That may not be revolutionary, but it’s a significant change from the status quo.
There’s no way we would have bought that car if it hadn’t been for Tesla.
Wait–are you saying that it wasn’t the 1904 Baker Stanhope, with it’s 1.75 hp motor, that convinced you that electric cars are worth a look? I am shocked.
You’re going to have to be a little more specific with this. Well you don’t HAVE to. That’s up to you. I’d like a Tesla or a new Mustang Shelby or a Hellcat. None of them generate any desire for other cars.
Yes but when you start with something new there are things that happen naturally. The modern 4 cyl front wheel drive car is predominantly done with the engine at a right angle to the wheels. It’s not an innovation as much as that’s the best way it fits. Most cars use a strut system up front but there are the odd ducks with a torsion bar suspension.
Is that what Musk means by modular? Traditionally it has meant common platforms and parts that cover multiple models.
You yet again miss the point. Tesla has gotten people to view electric cars as a viable option and IMO the features promised in the Tesla 3 has prodded other manufacturers to make practical electric cars. If it weren’t for the Tesla 3 being developed, the new Bolt wouldn’t exist. At best it would be “The new Bolt gets 100 miles on a charge if coasting downhill with a tailwind. Only $50,000 after subsidies!”
The idea while the Roadster was being developed was that you would buy the glider and then fit the body you wanted around that. I’m not sure how much would be common - for example would you switch out seats? but the overall idea was the frame on every Tesla Roadster would be the same no matter what style the customer wanted to drive that day.
this is what I’m not getting. What is driving electric cars is battery technology and that’s being driven by cell phones and computers. Tesla (and everybody else) is literally using the same batteries bundled in larger groups.
I think the Leaf,Bolt and all plug-ins would exist regardless of Tesla. They’re a natural outgrowth of hybrid cars. At least the Toyota style hybrid. That’s based on a dual ICE/electric motor combination of which we see in the Volt. As you add more batteries to the mix the ice engine will decrease in size or disappear altogether.
What has changed is not Tesla, it’s the reduction of cost and refinement of the various types of Lithium batteries. The battery is driving the market. I’ve said this going back to the Volt discussions. As batteries come closer to duplicating gasoline performance we will see an acceleration in the shift to drive EV’s. It’s a natural technological progression.
GM already demonstrated the viability of electric cars with the EV-1. It showed the that the car would be accepted. It was never financially feasible to produce it nor was it meant to be. All it needed was for battery technology to catch up to it. Look at the Volt. The cost of batteries are already 1/3 of what they were when it was introduced. I’d say as test programs go the EV-1 was more successful than Chrysler’s turbine engine cars.
the only difference between a Volt going 50 miles on a charge and a Tesla going 200 miles is more batteries. It’s not a technological leap when you look at the cost of the cars. It’s just more batteries and more money. Enter cheaper batteries and you get lower priced cars.
Despite that, there is a certain inertia that needs to be overcome. The impression I get from you is that as long as the technology hits a certain set of benchmarks (e.g. 300 miles per charge, under $30k, able to be fully charged in 15 min, 2100 supercharger stations, etc.) people will all of the sudden look at electric cars like a viable commodity. That is not the case. We have people that would refuse to buy a BEV because once a year they drive 400mi into the mountains - despite the fact that they would save money buying a BEV and renting a car for their vacation. People buy based on emotion as much as logic and people emotionally want a Tesla.
This is another reason why it’s volume and not just price that’s necessary for a car to be revolutionary. Outside of a few places like California, most people still don’t know someone with a Tesla. Word of mouth, though, is extremely important for the full-electric experience. People are filled with all kinds of misconceptions when it comes to electric cars and actually being able to talk to a friend about them is likely to clear them up. Not to mention just being able to sit in one for a drive.
There’s obvious a fair amount of pent-up demand for Teslas, so the Model 3 will be able to sell pretty well no matter what. But for electric cars to really become a significant chunk of the automobile population (i.e., selling millions per year) requires the greater public to be comfortable with them. Just reaching the point where everyone knows someone with a Tesla will be a big step in that direction.
You’re right. There’s going to be a crossover time frame when gas stations add charging stations. Without that the first wave of buyers will likely be 2 car families who will divide the driving chores as best fits the vehicle. 200 miles on a charge provides a usable buffer for daily driving. So a night on the town with friends gets the electric. Vacation to Alaska gets the minivan.
But I think the change will occur rapidly on the kind of scale we saw with cell phones. It’s not going to be a fad or anything that takes getting used to. As I said before, electric cars are going to blur the difference between luxury and economy cars. The expensive engines and transmissions will be replaced by an electric motor and the cost scale of motors will be much closer spaced between daily driver and “DAMN”. Musk understood this. The Ludicrous upgrade destroyed the performance gap between cars many times the cost of the Model S.
I’ve already started to mourn the loss of stick shift muscle cars and I can’t even think about riding an electric motorcycle. I will be riding “vintage model” bikes until they stop making gasoline for them.
that’s what surprised me about the cmax. Until it runs out of juice, it is a really fun car to drive. (and even then, it’s competitive with any other car I’ve owned.)
It’s going to revolutionize kit cars. Again, going back to Tesla’s vision of modular car designs and the simplicity of the drive trains it’s going to add to the fun of future cars. Not why I posted it but it’s what Tesla sees as the future. I posted it to show the ever growing market interest in electrics.
They’re already racing electrics. It’s actually cheaper to buy an old rear wheel drive economy car and electrify it (for the performance) than it is to build monster ice motor cars. Well maybe. You use to be able to buy a Pinto type car for nothing. It was a POS when new and there was no value to them. Either people are nostalgic for these types of cars (hey I had a lot of fun in the back of a Pinto) or people are buying them up for racing. They want the rear axle drive car because it’s easy to add electric motors to them.
Here’s a great video of a P85D model Tesla versus a Charger Hell cat which is about the most obnoxious production sports car ever built. It explains the difference between quickest sedan vs the fastest sedan. The video that follows shows a hybrid 4 wheel drive Porsche with an ice motor in the back and electric motor in the front.
look at the next drag video that follows (Black Current III). It’s a VW Beatle. I LOVE that they left the hood off the engine bay and there’s nothing there.
That could have been me. I’d wanted to build an electric sleeper but my job situation took a serious off-road tour in 2008. I don’t see it happening.