It should transition nicely in track racking because it should be possible to swap battery packs really fast. Driver skill would be the dominant difference in track performance and it lends itself nicely to “matched car” class of racing.
Drag racing is going to be a problem. Everybody running almost identical motors. Once the computer is dialed in the trap times are gong to be so close as to be boring and pointless. They’re going to have to hamstring the cars in some way as to put driver back into the variability.
Article by Bloomberg that discusses the OP. Look at the charts. They really speak to the discussion. For example, the average new car price is $31,000 which is more than the Tesla 3 with incintives (but no guaranty the incentives will stay). Is a $25,000 BEV a better buy than a $31,000 ICE for most Americans? A very fair article, Magiver might have ghost-written
I am disappointed that there seem to be huge assumptions being made for the future showing how successful Tesla and BEVs will be.
I am also very skeptical that the car will arrive on time, but Musk said on an investor call today that he will not do the “signature” series cars first; the early cars will be priced at the target. He also said the deposit will be $1,000 (as opposed to $5,000 for the Model X) and pre orders start April 1.
FYI, the deposit on the Model S is $2500, they claim delivery will be 6-8 weeks after you put down the deposit.
Somewhere on YouTube there’s an interview with Musk. While Tesla says it will start taking orders for the Model 3 in April, Musk says production won’t start until near the end of 2017. I don’t know how that comports with earlier claims about the expected production date.
I seem to recall his original predictions (from a couple of years ago) were that the Model 3 would be in production by the end of this March.
Musk just recently said he’s going to reveal the design of the Model 3 on March 31st. Translating that out of Musk-speak, that means that it’s likely engineering work on the car hasn’t even begun yet, much less production work. And we all know that Musk’s predictions tend toward being very overly-optimistic. I’d say the analyst’s 2018 estimate is probably about right.
I’ve noticed that the more cars Tesla sells, the more money they lose. They’re currently burning thru cash at a rate of over $100 million per month. Their cash reserves at the end of 2015 were $1.2 billion, so this rate they’ll be broke by the end of the year. Even if we assume that Tesla gets 50,000 pre-orders for the Model 3 this year, at a thousand bucks each that’s “only” $50 million, which the way Tesla is spending money will last them about 2 weeks. They just sold more stock to raise cash – that’s why they’re not already broke. I’d think another stock sale this year would be seen as an act of desperation, and their stock price would plummet.
Interesting article by the Motley Fools. Magiver could have ghost-wrote this line
I think the question is still is Tesla driving this market by generating demand or is it simply a couple of companies hitting the same technology at the same time.
Other note: I am ready to head over to Park Meadows to put down my deposit on Mar 31st but then I realized - Goddam there most likely won’t be a 3 there to fondle, sit in (I’m 6’ and my son is 6’3" and built like an O Lineman) or test drive. Yeah I’m a fan but am I willing to put up $1000 non-refundable and commit to a car I can’t even touch?
Well that’s just the numbers side of it. It’s not like I don’t like the car.
Tesla raised the bar on luxury performance cars. It’s faster than a Hellcat in the quarter mile. That’s a seriously obnoxious car to beat. yes there are high dollar cars capable of that but nothing in the price range that Tesla sells in. But I still think EV’s are a natural outgrowth of hybrids and battery technology. At least the current crop of them are. Virtually every car company has been working on then on a serious level and not as a luxury performance car. Since they represent a simpler car to build and easier to modularize I think it’s a natural progression.
Do you fit in all the other Tesla’s? It’s not like they’re suddenly going to build a clown car.
Can you resist test driving other cars while waiting for it?
My manager is 6’4" and has a Model S, which he fits in fine. Tesla gave him a Roadster as a loaner during some service. He basically had to “fold himself” to get into it.
Hyundai now appears close to putting out a mini-line of cars called the Ioniq, which include a hybrid, a plug-in hybrid, and an all-electric. Pictures. News stories today indicate sales will start in September of this year, and the all-electric version will have a range of about 150 miles. No word on prices.
Except no one has any clue what “30% smaller means”. Less headroom? Smaller area for people to sit (Mrs. Cad has to put her knees against the passenger-side dashboard when my son sits in the back and that’s a freaking Jeep!).
OK, hows this. put the money down and if it’s a clown car you still own something people are getting in line to throw money at. Scalp the car for a profit.
Over 300k pre sales orders - if they are able to deliver, and they become commonplace, absolutely.
I really hope they succeed, car companies need a kick in the ass
By the way, ever since I did a test drive of the model s “ludicrous mode” muscle (internal combustion) cars mean nothing to me but loud, dirty and outdated technology
I can’t find any articles that run the numbers of battery production, Model 3 production, power wall production, and Panasonic’s share of the gigafactory production. It would be interesting to see where they stand.
And Detroit got a well deserved kick in the ass in the 70’s and 80’s by Honda, VW and Toyota. Gov regulations for decent mileage and safety pushed manufacturers to produce reliable safe cars. The crap cars we lived with…
EV’s are the next ass kick. Nothing on the market, or the foreseeable future works for my Wife and I, but that’s ok. The tech does bleed down to ICE cars.
And there are plenty of electric cars that are already out there, the payback time to cover the premium you have to pay for electric cars is probably over 10 years. Electric cars probably have to get a lot cheaper to make economic sense for consumers
Just to throw in a data point on how low fuel prices are affecting the hybrid/electric market, hybrids/electrics made up 2.4% of new vehicle sale in Q1’16 versus 2.6% in Q1’15. That’s most likely due to reduced gasoline prices. Tesla Model S sales were +32% over the same period but Toyota Prius was down 21%.
Tesla has positioned it’s cars in the performance market so I don’t see it affecting their current line up of cars. The Model 3 looks like it’s designed to appeal to sports enthusiasts on some level. They may just make a performance version of it to compete in the entry level performance market. That would keep the price up and allow them to make fewer cars for the same return. Imagine a $55,000 sports car that competes with the Camaro and Mustang. It wouldn’t require any more batteries.
The Gigafactory was a key factor in the Model 3 concept. The over-the-top interest in the car as well as their energy storage products means they have to be looking for outside sources of batteries to maximize their production runs.
I see a more telling benchmark being the BMW 330d, 5.6 sec 0-60 and 60mpg with a >600 mile range for the equivalent of $50,000.
That is a key target for Tesla in Europe at least. Once they start shipping a car that encroaches on those figures then they cease to be a novelty and will be tapping into a massive market.
The Model 3 isn’t quite there yet but I’ve no doubt that it will interest the drivers of lower spec and lower mileage BMW/Merc at the intended price point.
I do still see range anxiety as being the main barrier to full acceptance of electric cars as the main vehicle. That will take some time to shift but as the infrastructure technology matures I expect that to lessen for most people. Once I can plan my preferred route across the UK or europe that coincides with easily accessible, 30 minute charging bursts for a 300 mile range then you’ll be looking at satisfying the needs of 99% of people. The world is then the electronic mollusc of your choice.
Interesting times though, Tesla are definitely setting the agenda and all the main manufacturers are looking at related technologies, the next few years will see substantial jostling for position and an increase in choice for all, that can only be a good thing.
