Will Trump's tariffs help him in the next presidential election?

[Merneith]

@Lemur866

Donald Trump is not a highly skilled con man. His con is so transparent and ridiculous that a five year old could see through it. His con is “Come to my van, I’ve got candy in there.”

It wasn’t even that. It was “Get in my van and we’ll go snatch candy from other children!” Everyone who got in that van is complicit with the mayhem.

[Chisquirrel]

@Chronos

But it’s getting to the point that they’re not even being told that. When a steel mill closes and cites “Trump’s tariff” as the reason for their closing, that’s got to hurt Trump.

It’s not the steel mill that closes - it’s the automobile parts manufacturer or the construction company.
I’d wager the Chinese steel Trump uses for his buildings will get an “exception”, though.

[k9bfriender]

@Merneith

It wasn’t even that. It was “Get in my van and we’ll go snatch candy from other children!” Everyone who got in that van is complicit with the mayhem.

This reminds me of watching John Oliver the other day, when he was doing a story about crypto currencies.

Part of his segment talked about pump and dumping the currecnies. Where you would get investors to buy in, driving up the price, then sell it to other investors, who would get left holding the bag.

The interesting thing about it was that they were telling you straight up that it was a con game, and that you were going to be in on the con, and it was these other suckers that were going to be screwed over while you got rich. What they don’t tell you is they gave you the same exact pitch that they will be giving these other suckers.

Everyone is so excited to be part of the con, to be the one doing the screwing for a change, that they don’t realize that they are bent over with their pants around their ankles.

[Chronos]

Quoth Chisquirrel:

It’s not the steel mill that closes - it’s the automobile parts manufacturer or the construction company.

No, I said steel mill, and I meant steel mill. See Fear Itself’s post, and the story it linked.

[Chisquirrel]

@Chronos

No, I said steel mill, and I meant steel mill. See Fear Itself’s post, and the story it linked.

And that’s a possible loss of 600 steel workers. Compare that to the 200,000 manufacturing jobs lost the last time a steel tariff was considered a bright idea. I don’t feel much sympathy for Trump voters that got exactly what they voted for - I feel for the industry that could erase an entire month’s worth of created jobs in order to boost one that’s 1% of their size.

[Chronos]

But it’s not the numbers that matter. Get just one steel executive on TV saying that he’s having to lay off steelworkers because of the tariff, and a lot more than those 600 will hear that message. Tariffs are popular because, as you say, the few who benefit know very clearly that they benefit, but a little messaging like that, and they won’t know that clearly.

[enipla]

@Chronos

No, I said steel mill, and I meant steel mill. See Fear Itself’s post, and the story it linked.

Yes, and you have to read the article closely. Typically, I think of a steel mill as a company that MAKES steel. It this case, this company took existing imported steel (from Russia I think) and reforms it. ‘Milling it’.

@wiki Steel Mill

A steel mill or steelworks is an industrial plant for the manufacture of steel. It may be an integrated steel works carrying out all steps of steelmaking from smelting iron ore to rolled product, but may also describe plants where steel semi-finished casting products (blooms, ingots, slabs, billets) are made, from molten pig iron or from scrap.

In any case, I believe the 25% tariff will drive up the end product that construction projects use, or consumers buy.

My BIL is the CEO of a small manufacturing plant. They make valves and fittings for the oil industry. He’s doing quite well right now and is a trump supporter. But, I wonder if the cost of HIS raw materials (steel and I suppose cast iron and aluminum) goes up, how happy he’s going to be about his choice to vote for trump.

[Johnny_Ace]

@enipla

…My BIL is the CEO of a small manufacturing plant. They make valves and fittings for the oil industry. He’s doing quite well right now and is a trump supporter. But, I wonder if the cost of HIS raw materials (steel and I suppose cast iron and aluminum) goes up, how happy he’s going to be about his choice to vote for trump.

Don’t worry, he’ll find some fantasy way to blame the Dems (and Obama, of course) for anything negative that happens.

[wguy123]

It doesn’t appear the tariffs helped him (R’s) in the election yesterday, located in steel country.

[JohnT]

@wguy123

It doesn’t appear the tariffs helped him (R’s) in the election yesterday, located in steel country.

Map of PA steel country. PA18 is at that cluster in the far west of the state.

https://www.steel.org/~/media/Files/AISI/Public%20Policy/Member%20Map/2016/Pennsylvania.pdf?la=en

[Fear_Itself]

China imposes 25% tariff on US pork and other agricultural products

China’s Customs Tariff Commission is increasing the tariff rate on eight imported U.S. products, including pork, by 25 percent. It’s also imposing a new 15 percent tariff on 120 imported U.S. commodities, including fruits.

So any gains in steel and aluminum would have to be weighed against losses in agriculture. Red state agriculture.

[Tamerlane]

@Fear_Itself

So any gains in steel and aluminum would have to be weighed against losses in agriculture. Red state agriculture.

Depending on what is on that list, very blue CA may well be hurt. Though fair to say the pain may end up being distributed more heavily in the redder areas of the state.

[jasg]

@Tamerlane

Depending on what is on that list, very blue CA may well be hurt. Though fair to say the pain may end up being distributed more heavily in the redder areas of the state.

Yeah, not a lot of pork and fruit coming from the coast. Central Valley gets hit by the Chinese. Remember the EU threats against Harley Davidson, bourbon and blue jeans? That hits home districts for Ryan, McConnell and Pelosi…

Trade wars are so easy to win :dubious:

[Gyrate]

Trump’s Tariffs Are Hurting American Factories After Prices Skyrocket

Here’s one way to assess President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imported steel and aluminum: America’s factories already aren’t feeling so great.

The tariff announcement helped send a measure of raw-material prices paid to an almost seven-year high in March, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey showed Monday.

US stock market slides as China retaliates to Trump tariffs

The opening salvos of a tariff spat between the US and China that some observers fear could escalate into a full-blown trade war sent jitters through Wall Street on Monday.

Stock markets fell after Beijing hit back against Donald Trump’s Imposition of tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium with a swath of retaliatory duties on 128 imported American products, including pork and apples.

Will Trump Crash the Farm Economy?

One smaller manufacturer — a Trump voter — told me that his costs to produce his product nearly doubled overnight, and that his business has already been hurt by the tariffs. Prices didn’t rise only after the tariffs were announced; they started rising when Mr. Trump floated the idea.

[…]

Most recently, when Mr. Trump imposed $60 billion in tariffs and sanctions against China, the Iowa Soybean Association said his action “poses an immediate and grave threat to their industry and Iowa agriculture.”

China tariffs could be ‘tip of the iceberg’ in a ‘long, entrenched trade war’

If the trade retaliations with China are to continue, the goods that are likely on the radar of the Chinese Foreign Minister for future import tariffs likely include soybeans and aircraft, the two highest valued U.S. exports to China.

Economists are almost all in agreement that persistent trade retaliation with China is economically damaging, but there are some, that are not convinced of the effects. Some economists have argued that continued unilateral trade negotiations will not likely increase in escalation—it will be business as usual for both sides—but the effects could spill over and could escalate political tensions between China and the U.S. Especially, if the U.S. and other allies begin to work on multilateral trade negotiations aimed at limiting Chinese state-sponsored industries, global tensions could begin to rise.

Here in the U.S., the farming communities that are caught up in this tit-for-tat trade war will likely feel the squeeze. In a general sense, tariffs tend to hurt producers of exported goods as well as, domestic consumers. Without competitive pricing, losing access to such a large market could put many small farms, with thin profit margins, into financial jeopardy. It is likely that Chinese consumers will also bear the weight of the tariff as they see prices rising for fruits, vegetables, and pork.

Trump’s Latest China Tariffs Could Hurt Tech—and Even Social Media

The sanctions plan also creates a headache for US companies reliant on Chinese circuit boards, servers, chips, or manufacturing plants—and potentially their customers, too.

The effects could be felt beyond hardware companies. For example, Chinese suppliers are important to the Open Compute Project that internet companies such as Facebook, Google, and Microsoft support to make servers and other data center equipment cheaper.

Silicon Valley lobbying group The Internet Association, whose members include Google, Amazon, and Facebook, said Thursday that it fears knock-on effects such as higher prices for consumers, and industry job losses.

Trump’s tariffs will hurt all of his beloved fossil fuels

But the tariffs aren’t just going to drive up prices of pipelines and wind turbines (which will need more steel and aluminum as they become more massive). Backlash from other countries could undermine sales of energy hardware and resources abroad.

For example, Brazil, the largest importer of US coking coal, reminded the US that this material, also known as metallurgical coal, is used to make the very steel that Trump wants to tax. Since the bulk of the United States’ coking coal is sold to other countries, tariffs on foreign steel would shrink the international market for coal and may break Trump’s promise to resuscitate the US coal industry.

And the new levies stand to be yet another blow to solar installers in the US on top of the 30 percent tariffs on imported solar panels the White House announced in January, a move that was meant to corner China and shore up US solar panel manufacturers.

Man, I am tired of all this winning.

So - Silver lining: still think the tariffs are going to help Trump in the next presidential election?

[Fear_Itself]

Steel tariffs raising prices on farm equipment

In Riverton, Illinois, farmer Allen Entwistle said he postponed construction of a new $800,000 storage system for grain after AGCO Corp’s (AGCO.N) GSI unit increased prices by 15 percent.

Entwistle, who voted for Trump, will instead store corn in bags on the ground.

“President Trump keeps telling us he’s going to get a better deal,” Entwistle said. “When are we gonna make it better?”

[asahi]

I think RickJay’s post earlier in the thread was pretty solid. Trump might actually benefit politically from the appearance of standing up to China, Mexico, and other perceived adversaries. Americans have for years assumed we’re being taken advantage of and tariffs are a way to slap the political world order in the face, which is what many of Trump’s voters voted for.

I don’t think that voters are automatically going to make the connection between retaliatory measures and Trump’s decisions to start a trade war, and even if they do make that connection, it’s not clear that they would necessarily blame Trump - they might still blame China and whoever for being manipulative. It could even stoke intense nationalism and anti-Chinese sentiment.

As RickJay said, be careful about assuming that people perceive this the same way the New York Times and the Economist see it. Even if Paul Krugman’s spot on, economically speaking, he could be getting the political optics dead wrong. What I would say, though, is that while people may not identify specific policies that Trump has flubbed, in the larger scheme, I think Trump’s economic incompetence generally will hurt him, and this is one of several policies that will hurt his standing.

[running_coach]

@Fear_Itself

Steel tariffs raising prices on farm equipment

He should raise chickens so they have somewhere to roost.

[k9bfriender]

@Fear_Itself

Steel tariffs raising prices on farm equipment

Trump admits tariffs could cause ‘pain’ in markets

“We may take a hit, and you know, ultimately we’re going to be much stronger for it, but it’s something we have got to do,” Trump said.

When he says, “we”, he means you.

[septimus]

@Gyrate

Trump’s Tariffs Are Hurting American Factories After Prices Skyrocket

US stock market slides as China retaliates to Trump tariffs

Will Trump Crash the Farm Economy?

China tariffs could be ‘tip of the iceberg’ in a ‘long, entrenched trade war’

Trump’s Latest China Tariffs Could Hurt Tech—and Even Social Media

Trump’s tariffs will hurt all of his beloved fossil fuels

Man, I am tired of all this winning.

So - Silver lining: still think the tariffs are going to help Trump in the next presidential election?

[sarcasm analogous to gun nuts’ bleatings]:
The country is still in mourning from the latest tragic blunder to come out of Trump’s tweet-hole … and you guys are trying to make this about politics? Have you no decency? Let the country recover from its grief, please, before resuming the political rants.

[LAZombie]

Why is it fine that the EU imposes tariffs on Chinese steel because of dumping allegations but wrong when Trump does it?

EU extends duties on stainless steel pipes from China

:rolleyes: