I was just reading this thread. Random predictions of random people, yes, but surely food for thought.
No one, not even the Administration, denies that war with Iraq will cause a short-term increase in terrorist threat, and give extremist groups not only more recruitment, but an excuse to attack. The differences lie in whether you think that the “savings” in lives resulting from war is more or less than had we not, and whether it’ll result in attacks going down in the long term.
Now, one common thread I saw in the predictions dealing with terrorism as a cause is that they all deal with Iraq war being the starting catalyst. Of course, these predictions may be based on personal opinions on the war itself, but I’d still like to toss out these questions:
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How bad would terrorist attacks have to be in the future to destroy this country, or at least bring it down to second or third world level? How bad would that be for the rest of the world?
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If it does happen, would it be possible to point to war with Iraq as a definite cause? If not, how is it possible to point to Iraq war, and the results of that war, as a factor that WILL decrease terrorism in the long term with any confidence? (Or even necessarily increase, for that matter?)
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Even if war with Iraq doesn’t have the dire consequences that’re outlined above, will world opinion of the U.S. be forever ruined? Now, I know that some have said that they’ll fall in line, as it were, once we win, and that may be true. But will governments inclined towards sympathy right after 9/11 now, for example, withhold or delay cooperation that might prevent the next 9/11? IOW, how will our dealings outside be affected, especially in regards to question 1?
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Here’s something that I’ve asked myself quite a lot: how easy is a major terrorist attack? The news and pundits act like it’s a breeze to get a random nuclear device, waltz into the U.S., plop himself into a major city, and sit back. And for all I know, it is. But how easy is it, really?
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It seems to me that our major concern for the future is panic. As long as we stay calm in the face of adversity, it’s pretty difficult to bring us down. But as Agent K observed, people in groups tend to be dumb, panicky creatures. Given this inclination of human nature, is it possible for us, as a country unit, NOT to be brought low by major terrorism? Is the government, or anyone else, helpless to stop this major factor in public chaos and erosion of civil liberties? What IS there to be done about it?
Naturally, no matter what you think of the Administration, it’s pretty sure they’ve thought of all this, and consider their reasons for going to war worth this risk (see opening paragraph). But I just thought I’d toss out my thoughts after reading that linked thread… Apologies in advance for repetition from other threads; I was just getting all the random junk in my skull out. 