But I think we are getting to the point where people are more deciding who to vote against rather than for. McCain can appear above the petty fray for longer so longer as he is out of the critical eye. Hell, he can look great explicitly stating that he doesn’t think that Obama shares Wright’s views while each of Democratic candidates builds their negative ratings.
[QUOTE=Keweenaw]
Dennis Kucinich was on the MI ballot.
Many intended their vote to be for John Edwards.
[/QUOTE]
Certainly some would go Edwards but as I noted only half of those uncommitted votes would keep Obama in the popular vote lead and I think it is a very safe bet more than half would have voted Obama over Edwards.
[QUOTE=Whack-a-Mole]
I doubt they would be doing that if they thought the overall benefit would accrue to the Dems. So, either the Pubs are pushing to get a knock-down, drag out fight and let the Dems bloody each other or they actually want to face HRC in the general election rather than Obama (which to my mind is another point in Obama’s favor).
[/QUOTE]
Ingrained in my mind is the street interview done on CNN where they caught a bearded man walking from a polling station in Oklahoma I think. When asked who he voted for he said Hillary Clinton. He went on to say that he is a republican voting for Clinton because, [Heavy Okie Accent] “We’ll have a much easier time beating Clinton in the fall than Obama…” [/Heavy Okie Accent]
That was telling in my mind.
I don’t see a concession before the convention. Obama will likely have more than enough delegates to win nomination, but Hillary will not concede in hopes that Obama has a big skeleton in his closet.
[QUOTE=BobLibDem]
I don’t see a concession before the convention. Obama will likely have more than enough delegates to win nomination, but Hillary will not concede in hopes that Obama has a big skeleton in his closet.
[/QUOTE]
Well if she conceded and then that hypothetical skeleton popped out before the convention is there anything actually preventing her from stepping back into the ring and claiming the nomination? Or couldn’t the convention just nominate her if they want if Obama turned out to be a disaster? (My admittedly ill-informed understanding of the convention is they could nominate BobLibDem if they were of a mind to despite you never having entered yourself in any political race ever…I could be wrong though.)
[QUOTE=Little Nemo]
I’m thinking at this point the ongoing nomination struggle is actually helping the Democrats. If Clinton (or Obama) were to drop out, the story would shift to McCain vs the Democratic nominee. Instead all of the media attention has gone the Democrats. Everyone’s talking about Obama and Clinton and McCain is being forgotten. McCain has suffered the fate of not being newsworthy.
And look at what kind of attention the conventions will get. Everyone will be watching the Democratic convention. The Republican convention will seem like naptime in comparison. The Democrats will leave their convention with a brand new nominee (who will ride away from the convention on a major victory) and a fresh story about reunifying the party; the Republicans will have a nominee who’s already several months old and the same old same old. The Democrats will look exciting and vital; the Republicans will look boring and old. And face facts: in a race between Obama and McCain it’ll be easy to transfer those images from the parties to the candidates.
[/QUOTE]
Unlike my friend Phil, I disagree. As does a prominent Democratic party “elder”, Joe Andrew (former DNC Chairman, appointed by Bill Clinton), who switched his allegiance from Clinton to Obama today, citing in part the damage that’s being done to the Democrats in this drawn-out battle.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1736508,00.html
And he has written a letter to all the other superdelegates to unite behind Obama to end this thing once and for all. I don’t believe for a moment that party leaders will allow Clinton to drag this thing out to the Convention. We’ll have a nominee by June 4th.
[QUOTE=Whack-a-Mole]
Well if she conceded and then that hypothetical skeleton popped out before the convention is there anything actually preventing her from stepping back into the ring and claiming the nomination? Or couldn’t the convention just nominate her if they want if Obama turned out to be a disaster? (My admittedly ill-informed understanding of the convention is they could nominate BobLibDem if they were of a mind to despite you never having entered yourself in any political race ever…I could be wrong though.)
[/QUOTE]
I think you are correct. They can nominate anyone they choose if the front runner has to quit. But I think in that event Hillary would probably rather be seen as staying in the fight until the last dog dies than conceding then jumping back in to get a rebound.
By the way, you can read Joe Andrew’s letter in its entirety, along with some opening remarks, here.
Shayna, I’m sure you would be happier to skip the convention and the election and proceed right to the deification.
Legally, there’s nothing preventing this. But realistically, once you’ve quit, you’re out. A candidate who changes his or her mind about whether or not they’re running looks weak regardless of the circumstances. People want that “never give up” attitude. McCain’s getting respect because of the way he hung on even when his poll numbers were so low in 2007. If Clinton quit and then came back after an Obama meltdown, the spin would be that McCain could take the heat and she couldn’t.
[QUOTE=Little Nemo]
Shayna, I’m sure you would be happier to skip the convention and the election and proceed right to the deification.
[/QUOTE]
What a rude and uncalled-for thing to say. I’m as entitled to my opinion as you or anyone else. And at least I back my opinion up with sources from which I draw to come to my opinions. You might try doing the same and showing some respect in this forum.
[QUOTE=Little Nemo]
Legally, there’s nothing preventing this. But realistically, once you’ve quit, you’re out. A candidate who changes his or her mind about whether or not they’re running looks weak regardless of the circumstances. People want that “never give up” attitude. McCain’s getting respect because of the way he hung on even when his poll numbers were so low in 2007. If Clinton quit and then came back after an Obama meltdown, the spin would be that McCain could take the heat and she couldn’t.
[/QUOTE]
Maybe but I am not so sure. Seems perfectly reasonable to me for her to make the claim that she left the race for the good of the party. Obama was the apparent winner and dragging things out would benefit no one. Upon learning of the skeleton she magnanimously agrees to step back in and save the day.
I’d vote for her under that hypothetical and not hold her concession against her. Indeed I would be more upset with her if she was the apparent loser in the election and forced a fight all the way to the convention.
And how do you suppose that would play to the undecided voters and such? You are probably pre-disposed to vote Democrat regardless…however, Hillary conceding then jumping back in would probably sink the Dems this go around if some theoretical thing did come out about Obama.
However, I think she is counting on being close enough to Obama to be able to work some kind of magic at the convention. Until the supers actually cast their votes for one candidate or another all their pledges are written on sand…at least my guess is Hillary sees it that way. She isn’t going to concede unless Obama gets the magic number confirmed dels prior to the convention…and I think that is mathmatically impossible at this point. Even if Obama gets enough supers to agree in public to support him that pushes him over the magic number I don’t expect Hillary to concede as those public declarations aren’t cast in stone…and things could always change.
-XT
[QUOTE=Freddy the Pig]
Common sense would call for withdrawal, but I’m no longer confident that common sense will prevail. If she does plow on, it isn’t the end of the world. Reagan in 1976, Kennedy in 1980, Hart in 1984, Jackson in 1988, and Brown in 1992 all took hopeless challenges to the floor of the convention. A few people will watch the convention that wouldn’t have otherwise.
[/QUOTE]
The only problem is, except for 1992 the party that had the hopeless challenge go all the way to the floor of the convention LOST the general election.
After June 3 there will be tremendous, mostly behind the scenes, pressure for one or the other to drop out.
[QUOTE=xtisme]
And how do you suppose that would play to the undecided voters and such? You are probably pre-disposed to vote Democrat regardless…however, Hillary conceding then jumping back in would probably sink the Dems this go around if some theoretical thing did come out about Obama.
[/QUOTE]
Well, in this hypothetical, we’re already assuming that Obama has suddenly become unelectable, so while Hillary jumping back in after leaving the race won’t be a good thing, it’ll sink the Dems less than the alternative.
What skeletons do people keep suggesting Obama has hiding in his closet, anyway?
Shayna, throughout this campaign I’ve acknowledged that Hillary Clinton (who I favor) has her flaws and Barack Obama and John McCain have their strengths. I try to see the other person’s point of view on a subject even if I don’t agree with it.
You, on the other hand, seem to lack that objectivity. I cannot recall anything you’ve posted on this campaign which has not been filtered through your support of Obama. Anything that helps him, you say is great. Anything that hurts him, you say is wrong.
You are, as you say, entitled to your opinion. But when that opinion is as openly biased as yours has been, I will take that bias into account when I read your opinion.
[QUOTE=Little Nemo]
Shayna, throughout this campaign I’ve acknowledged that Hillary Clinton (who I favor) has her flaws and Barack Obama and John McCain have their strengths. I try to see the other person’s point of view on a subject even if I don’t agree with it.
You, on the other hand, seem to lack that objectivity. I cannot recall anything you’ve posted on this campaign which has not been filtered through your support of Obama. Anything that helps him, you say is great. Anything that hurts him, you say is wrong.
You are, as you say, entitled to your opinion. But when that opinion is as openly biased as yours has been, I will take that bias into account when I read your opinion.
[/QUOTE]
I contend you are wrong, especially in this particular thread, where I backed up my opinion with that of a prominent Hillary supporter who agrees with me, which is consistently what I do.
But I am not going to further debate my posting style with you in this thread. If you have a problem with me, take it to the pit and stop posting rude insults to me in this forum.
[QUOTE=Shayna]
Unlike my friend Phil, I disagree. As does a prominent Democratic party “elder”, Joe Andrew (former DNC Chairman, appointed by Bill Clinton), who switched his allegiance from Clinton to Obama today, citing in part the damage that’s being done to the Democrats in this drawn-out battle. http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1736508,00.html
And he has written a letter to all the other superdelegates to unite behind Obama to end this thing once and for all. I don’t believe for a moment that party leaders will allow Clinton to drag this thing out to the Convention. We’ll have a nominee by June 4th.
[/QUOTE]
Shayna: do you believe that “that the tone and temperature of the race is now hurting [the Democrats]…” and that “…John McCain, without doing much of anything, is now competitive against both of [the] remaining candidates?”
[QUOTE=9thFloor]
She finishes with the popular vote (she’s already got the lead), Obama continues to implode, some of the supers ask Obama to concede so they don’t have to be the ones to swing it her way.
They’re not going to want to give it to the candidate with fewer popular votes (FL and MI not counting is a delegate issue, not a popular vote issue).
[/QUOTE]
The problem with this argument is that the popular vote doesn’t determine the Democratic candidate. Furthermore, HRC is only ahead in the popular vote if FL and MI are included and caucus States, like Iowa, are excluded. Gee, this seems fair. I’ll admit HRC has a great PR firm to fabricate reality.
Obama is going to earn this nomination. If HRC continues the fight to the convention, most people - Democrats - will really start to question her motives. Since she needs to maintain support in NY, I believe she will concede before the convention.
[QUOTE=Bricker]
Shayna: do you believe that “that the tone and temperature of the race is now hurting [the Democrats]…” and that “…John McCain, without doing much of anything, is now competitive against both of [the] remaining candidates?”
[/QUOTE]
Yes, I do. Why else would I have quoted that in support of my rebuttal if I didn’t? Do you think I was being disingenuous? Did you read Mr. Andrew’s entire letter?
Five supers in two days:
Four yesterday and now Joe Andrews defects from the Clinton camp.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/01/major-clinton-backer-switches-to-obama/
I think it will be decided before the convention. Will Clinton bow out? Doubtful.