Wimbledon 2009

The Game Room
1

The one certainty this year will be the massive British interest in Andy Murray’s prospects of victory. As a reminder to citizens of the more successful tennis playing countries among us, this was last achieved by Fred Perry in 1936. Perry also emerged the winner in 1934 and 1935.

The seedings in the mens competition largely reflect the ATP rankings, with only Marat Safin promoted to any great degree from 23 to 15. The womens seedings stick precisely to the WTA order of precedence.

I am mildly surprised to see the odds layers price the top three in the mens tournament as 6-5 Federer, 4-1 Murray, and 5-1 Nadal. I guess they have framed the betting on Rafael based upon his interrupted preparation for the contest. I feel that if he can get a couple of easy matches under his belt, and so reach something approaching peak fitness, his current odds might look silly come the quarter finals. I do not say he’ll win, although he might, rather my opinion is that he is currently overpriced.

In the womens event the Williams sisters head the market at circa 3-1 joint favourites with Sharapova next up at 6-1.

Mens Seedings:

1 Rafael Nadal (Spn)
2 Roger Federer (Swi)
3 Andy Murray (Gbr)
4 Novak Djokovic(Srb)
5 Juan Martin del Potro (Arg)
6 Andy Roddick (USA)
7 Fernando Verdasco (Spn)
8 Gilles Simon (Fra)
9 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (Fra)
10 Fernando Gonzalez (Chi)
11 Marin Cilic (Cro)
12 Nikolay Davydenko (Rus)
13 Robin Soderling (Swe)
14 Gael Monfils (Fra)
15 Marat Safin (Rus)
16 Tommy Robredo (Spn)

Womens Seedings:

1 Dinara Safina (Rus)
2 Serena Williams (USA)
3 Venus Williams (USA)
4 Elena Dementieva (Rus)
5 Svetlana Kuznetsova (Rus)
6 Jelena Jankovic (Srb)
7 Vera Zvonareva (Rus)
8 Victoria Azarenka (Blr)
9 Caroline Wozniacki(Den)
10 Nadia Petrova (Rus)
11 Agnieszka Radwanska (Pol)
12 Marion Bartoli (Fra)
13 Ana Ivanovic (Srb)
14 Dominika Cibulkova (Svk)
15 Flavia Pennetta (Ita)
16 Zheng Jie (Chn)

The weather forecast for next week is described as ‘hot’, but for how long the heat will last, nobody knows. As most people are aware, we don’t have a climate in this country, we just have unrelated periods of weather. A welcome innovation this year is the new roof above the Centre Court, so some tennis will take place every day regardless of conditions outside. An added bonus will be not having to listen to Cliff Richard and his backing group (Martina Navratilova and anybody else who happens to be in the vicinity) singing unwelcome ditties from the 1970s when play is totally rained off.

I eagerly anticipate the undoubted pleasure of sitting in front of the TV with a glass of Pimms and a dish of strawberries.

2

It comes down to two body parts for the men, doesn’t it? Nadal’s knees and Federer’s head. If both are healthy they’re still comfortable favorites, if not, who knows? I do think Murray will break through sooner or later, but here? I don’t see any reason to think it will be this tournament, but I didn’t call Soderling reaching the French final.

I think it’s interesting that Sharapova gets such good odds. Her results at Wimbledon the last two years have been nothing to write home about. I suppose she benefits from name recognition and from the fact that, after the Williamses (and maybe even including them), there’s zero consistency in the women’s game right now. Nobody’s going to bet on Dinara Safina winning a slam even until she actually wins one, the Serbian women are both having off-years, and a lot of the rest of the cast seems to rotate.

3

Nadal has not been his terrifying best in the run-up to Wimbledon. His knee injury seems to be enough of a niggle to bring him down to the level of the other mere mortals. Fed meanwhile seems to have regained his focus.

For me, then, Federer is a slight favourite, followed closely by Nadal, followed closely by Murray. Del Potro looks the best of the rest.

4

Actually, I think Federer is the clear favorite. Much more his surface, and no one else really challenging him hard. Nadal had to be at his absolute best to beat Federer at Wimbledon last year; this year, that’s not going to happen.

5

Just so I’m on the record, even though I’m not being brave, I do think Federer wins this one and breaks the record.

Meanwhile Nadal’s camp does not sound optimistic about him playing in Wimbledon, with a decision possibly coming tomorrow. But they may be downplaying expectations. He’s said he won’t play unless he can be 100 percent, but we all know how exceptionally tough-minded he is.

6

I agree.

I was in Nadal’s camp for him to cock block Federer and to keep him down, but after France and now with Nadal possibly not going to be at his bet. Fed’s got it.

7

Nadal lost both his games in straight sets in an exhibition tournament, to Hewitt and Wawrinka. It’s not looking good for him. He’s due to make an announcement in a couple of hours as to whether he’ll play. I think he will, regardless. If he doesn’t, Del Potro takes his spot in the draw.

8

Nadal was apparently going to announce his plans after the Wawrinka match, but I read that he’s called a press conference for later instead. I doubt he made that change to announce he’s going to play.

9

It’s official: Nadal’s out. As much as I’m pulling for Federer, that’s too bad. I’d finally managed to forgive Nadal for being so good.

On that note, here’s a New York Times Magazine feature piece about him, published on Wednesday.

10

Two other Wimbledon withdrawals: Marcos Baghdatis (knee) and Gael Monfils (wrist). Baghdatis has been slumping and had a tough first-round draw. I hope he gets it back together one of these days. He’s a lot of fun to watch and seems like a nice guy, but he never built on that Australian Open final run from… 2006? Jeez, it was three and a half years ago? Time is really passing him by.

11

This.

Of course, it’s academic now; we’ll have to wait until next year for the sequel to last year’s classic.

I have a different take on the result- I’m predicting a Federer - Hewitt final. Yes, really… and I’m predicting that Hewitt will win.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to find something soft to fall on when this limb breaks.

12

That’s a bold pick alright. Mind sharing a little of what you’re smoking? :wink:

I won’t bother you with the details of Hewitt’s record over the last few years, but I guess Hewitt IS one of the big beneficiaries of Nadal withdrawing: they were scheduled to meet in the second round. Now Hewitt actually has an okay shot at winning a couple of rounds.

13

Hewitt is the poster child of “tennis is a young man’s game” - what did he peak at, 21?

14

More for Hewitt than anybody else, since he was the youngest guy to ever become #1. He was 21, like you said. Every other year or so, I end up reading his bio and I’m surprised to see he’s only six months older than Federer.

15

Thanks for that link, Marley. Great article.

I agree with those of you that say that Fed would have been favored to win even if Rafa had played – but for an entirely different reason. And that is simply what made him finally retire. As awesome a start to the year as Nadal had, the only time he was able to play relatively pain-free (I say “relatively” because due to his playing style & muscle-bound frame, tendinitis will always be an issue for him) was the Aussie Open…right after it, he made the mistake that’s led him down this road. And that was playing Rotterdam right the next week. Re-aggravated the injury in the semis, still insisted on playing the final vs Murray on one leg, and the rest, as they say, is history. Downhill that is. Culminating with that savage semi-final in Madrid vs Novak (longest three-setter in MS history) that finally scuppered any chances he might have had to defend RG and Wimbly.

Now, if my grandma had balls and all that notwithstanding, my point is, a healthy Rafa IMO, would have been a sure fire favorite to repeat in both places. And no, it’s not hindsight. Even if I don’t post on tennis matters here – Og knows I already spend way too much time on here as it is – I do talk about it IRL all the time with my friends, and in particular, with one nephew of mine who’s become sort of like a savant on the matter he is so obsessed with it. To each and everyone of them I said the same thing shortly after Miami (I flew up to watch him play). And that was the same thing I’m saying here: he wasn’t right and unless he took a long break, it wasn’t looking good. Doesn’t matter he won MC, Barcelona or Rome; it was obvious he was doing so despite being far from his best.

Conclusion: Sad as I am with the news, he is, for the first time in his career, able to put his focus on the second half of the season. Which means that if all goes well, he could make it to Flushing Meadows in the same kind of shape that he was at The Aussie. Well, I’ll let you guys take the narrative from there…:wink:

Anyway, sorry for the sleep-inducing papyrus, but lucky for you, since he is is out, so am I. Meaning I’ll be watching but you’ll be spared any further torture.

Favorites? To be incredibly original, Fed, Murray and The Joker. More audacity you say? Well, if it’s Fed v Murray in the Final, I say Muzza gets revenge for last summer’s USO.

Thing is, I’m pretty sure Fed will be there, Murray, not as much.
::::avoids rotten tomatos being hurled:::::

Exit right.

16

My Pimms just turned sour.

His absence takes a lot from the tournament but doubtless it is the correct decision. Federer is now even money to win the title, with Murray at 3-1 and big prices about the rest.

17

We’ll see. The hardcourt part of the season always seems to take it out of him and it’s a long summer. It’s possible the rest will make a lot of difference and we don’t know how long he plans on resting up. But in the future he’s got to play a bit of an easier schedule, even though he does so much of his heavy lifting during the clay court season.

18

Are the players “re-seeded” since Nadal pulled out?

And can someone explain the how the seedings within the draw is determined?

I don’t have a specific cite, but I know sometimes if the top 4 seeds make it to the semis, that a 1 seed plays the 3 seed and sometimes the 1 and 4 seeds play in the semis.

19

Ouch, too bad for Nadal.

Maybe next year he can take Federer on again at Wimbledon.

So what are the odds on Federer winning now?

20

I don’t know exactly how seeding works, but it’s not random. One and two are on opposite sides to start. Three can be on either side, but is always opposite four and won’t meet the top player in his half until the semis. Placement gets more random as you work down through the seeded players to the ranked entrants, qualifiers and lucky losers (if any).

They do not re-seed, but a few players were shuffled around. Juan Martin del Potro, number five, is in Nadal’s spot, so he starts against Clement and is now in the top (Murray) half of the draw. James Blake, number 17, is now in the bottom half (Federer). It’s a lucky break for Blake, though: instead of Fabrice “The Magician” Santoro in round one and Mikhail Youzhny/Juan Carlos Ferrero next, he starts with Andreas Seppi and then probably Giquel. He’d be screwed against Federer or Murray, so which half he is in doesn’t really matter, but he has a better chance to win a couple of matches now. Taking Blake’s place against Santoro is Nicolas Kiefer, the number 33 seed.