We’ve had a few threads on this:
Being the most recent (in a quick search), but probably a half-dozen total or more, since it was announced over two years ago.
Windows (on non-compliant PCs) in system updates and occasional pop-ups has been saying this for, again, years, but if you have automated your software updates and/or out of habit closed all the little notifications you can miss it.
As mentioned already, you don’t have to buy one today as long as you’re willing to pay or jump through minor hoops for the one year expansion (so far, some companies are pushing hard) it’s security updates only. Not a full set of software, driver, framework, et al that you would have had historically.
So I suspect (kind of stepping past FQ here) that’s why various Tech guys don’t want to commit. It simply isn’t going to be as well supported as historically, there will be more vulnerabilities, and that could open them up to liability, so better to stay mum.
Similarly, I would say if you’re using a secure and supported browser, and just surfing safe sites on the net you have less risk. If you visit sketchier sites, download software or files to your PC, or keep financial documents on it… I’d still worry.
Thus me just getting back from a 1280 mile round trip drive to visit my father, set him up with a new Win11 machine, while adding the ESU (extended security updates) on the old machine if he needs to pull something off of it.
So you can get the ESU for one year and hope that things are further extended, get the ESU and plan for more time/budget to do an upgrade before October of next year, or get a new PC right away and have a little time to transfer everything and not worry about it until the next OS cycle.