Work Avoidance Therapy
So, as I was just checking venues and capacities and whatnot, I thought it might be interesting to take a very early guess as to how this might shake out, at least the groups and then a round or two. Of course I’ll be wrong, but a couple of groups will be shocking if they DON’T turn out this way:
Group Stages - First half
Group A:
W - Germany
R - Poland
Others: Ticos have an outside shot if they play their game. Ecuador travel extremely poorly, so would be surprised to see them win a game.
Group B:
W- England
R - Sweden
Others: Paraguay are the dark horse, but I just don’t see it happening. T&T will be happy just to be there. Top order could be reversed depending on goal differential in other games and assuming the two sides draw each other.
Group C:
W - Netherlands
R - Argentina
Others: the above (or reversed) is conventional wisdom. But CIV or S&M could also advance and I wouldn’t be surprised. Both might be a shock. This is one group you don’t want to face, regardless, in the second round, although maybe they’ll wear themselves down through the competition. Definitely a Group of Death.
Group D:
W - Mexico
R - Portugal
Others: top 2 could go either way, and it won’t matter, because they then face group C winner and runner up. Iran could be a spoiler, but more in determining who wins the group. I don’t expect much from Angola other than a fiery match with their former masters.
Second Round:
Germany v Sweden - Germany should be lightly tested and playing in front of a huge partisan crowd at the new Munich stadium (don’t tell me this is not arranged ), which is why England really need to win their group. Tough test for any visitor early on.
W - Germany
England v Poland - England have shown that they can handle the Poles. Crowd should be interesting, but England advances if they get this match, or any other Group A runner up.
W - England
Netherlands v Portugal - No reason Netherlands or any other Group A winner shouldn’t take this match.
W - Netherlands
Mexico v Argentina - Again, I see the Group C runner up as stronger than the Group D winner.
W - Argentina
Which sets up…
Quarterfinals
Germany vs Netherlands in Berlin. This could be the most anticipated match of the tournament. Can Berlin and the home field help overcome what is not a fair fight, on paper? I don’t think so, although I might be underestimating the effect of German soil. I think this is where German is exposed, although if this is Argentina or CIV or Serbia then Germany probably wins.
W - Netherlands
England v Argentina in Gelsenkirchen - Battle of the Falklands III. It’s truly to early to pick this match, and probably this isn’t even who is there. But what the heck. Both sides are cursing their luck here, but do you prefer to have Germany/Netherlands… maybe this isn’t so bad. Really, absolutely could go either way, but Gelsenkirchen is much, much closer to England, and the English fanatics find a way to get into this game. Gelsenkirchen is never the same.
W - England
to tie their last game after both beating Ghana to put the USA in the third spot.
