Ah, make way for a true pessimist…
So, first, we lob a few big boys at Iraq, 'cause he mighta done something and we’re pretty sure he supports terrorism, though nothing anybody could really trot out and prove in court, but just to be safe. Now we don’t hit Saddam, as he is as always just out of reach, but we do kill a few thousand or so women and children lined up for that days rations of water and flour. This enflames the Muslims in nearby countries who already think we don’t respect their way of life.
Then, after gaining permission from the ruling military junta in Pakistan we start seting up some base camps and preparing to come into Afghanistan via the southern border with Pakistan. Maybe a few cruise missles with serious payloads go in first to stir up the pot, help our satellites get a bearing on where the encampments are and where they are heading. Here we could really screw up by also attacking the clerics that wouldn’t directly hand over Bin Laden, since this would be akin to them attacking a deep rooted fringe of the Southern Baptist conference (in the eyes of other Muslim countries).
Soon after our ground troops start moving up through Afghanistan. My assumption that Bin Laden and his evil minions are not sitting around somewhere where it would be easy for us to waltz in and get him, it’s more likely that they have found the most obscure, god forsaken stretch of rocky, mountainous terrain in a decent sized country that is literally filled with god forsaken stretches of rocky, mountainous terrain. Along the lines of pursuit are lots of nasty little anti-personnel mines and hit and run tactics against our armor columns, carried out by inspired devotees who know the lay of the land and know where the good hiding places are.
Meanwhile, back in Afghanistan, the fundies are stirring up unrest against the military backed government, carrying out guerilla attacks against our bases which make our troops fearful of the local populace and the local populace becomes even more fearful of the Americans, who occasionally kill a few locals due to this fear. Which feeds the anti-American fundy movement.
Soon there is a full-fledged civil war going on in Pakistan. Most of the major cities are held by the military but parts of the military go over to the Islamic Liberation Front and the rural areas are generally believed to sympathise with the rebels. Hyderabad is safe since it is a large port with our ships and troops, but there are random terror/guerilla attacks. Some of the fighting spills over into Kashmir, which India uses as a pretext for renewed a push into the region. Since Pakistan is focused internally India takes Kashmir with minimal effort.
In the meantime, the northern countries on Afghans periphery provide recruits into what is growing into a complicated regional conflict. Young, poor, and easily influenced Muslims fom Kazakstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are signing up to defend Islam against the invaders. The propagandists in these countries have framed this as a conflict of American led imperialism versus the people of Islam, so while they don’t directly believe that Islam supports terror, they still side with their Muslim brothers. China secretly supplies arms to these groups, since the world economy is in the toilet and they desparately need the cash. Certain groups which sympathise with the cause in some of the more oil rich parts of the world help with the funding. At this point China is attempting to remain neutral but we know that China is providing the weapons. The Russians are torn on this since they don’t want to supply weapons to the rebels, but they are also hurting for cash because of the sour economy. So some Russian weapons do get to the rebels via the black market, but it is not sponsored by the Russian government. The Chinese claim the same, but we are not convinced.
Back in the States there is growing unrest as Muslim and Arab Americans become the targets of fear and prejudice. There continue to be arrests of those believed to be related to Bin Laden, but there are occasionally successful terrorist strikes, which are now more random and usually have less casualties. A bomb in a shopping mall, at a pizza parlor, etc. Vigilante groups start to take the law into their own hands usually with disasterous results. This further widens the schism between the West and the Muslim world as both sides lose any trust. Many liberal and moderate Muslims are unable to find jobs or lose their jobs on flimsy pretexts. There are some successful court battles against this, but it does not stop.
In the middle east, tensions are as high as they have ever been. The Israelis are in a near state of seige. Arafat has lost any semblance of control over the Palestinians, and new radical groups form constantly keeping the pressure on. The Israelis retaliate with an eye for an eye, and casualties remain very high. Attacks against Americans who work in Muslim countries is very high, and the State Department issues warnings and call backs for workers in Saudi, UAE, Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia. In Southeast Asia, where tolerance and moderation were once the rule, militant groups are stirring up the populace with propaganda. Riots sweep through Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur. In Australia all Muslims are ordered deported after a right wing government takes power on the heels of a few suspicuous “Muslim” bombings plus footage of the Australians who have already lost their lives in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Back in the hunt, losses are mounting in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. It is now more than a year since the war first began and the initial fervor has begun to die down. Enlistment is still high, but those who have been incountry for a year or so have seen some horrible things, lost friends and are burnt out. There have been some victories but at great cost. There is no glory in taking a town or village, as these are left mostly undefended. The “enemy” is taking huge losses, but there are few strategic victories. Bin Laden remains uncaptured and there are rumors that he may have moved into one of the bordering countries. Intelligence reports are often conflicting and unclear.
Bush reneges on his promise to have “our troops home by Christmas”. Brittany Spears and Christina Aguilera put aside there differences to do USO tours in Pakistan, but must amend their dress to keep from upsetting the locals.
Back in the States there is a growing anti-war movement at the more liberal universities. The FBI looks into reports at a growing radical Muslim movement on some of these campuses. Farrakhan quietly hints that this is not the black man’s war and that the poverty which remains in US inner cities is proof that this is a racist conflict. New terrorist cells arise which are manned by born and bred Americans. Civil liberties continue to erode under provisional wartime measures. The country is in the grip of a severe recession, although some industries do quite well.
Throughout Europe countries which are seen as supporting the US led effort are hit by occasional bombings, and civil liberties are restricted. Algerian bombers in Paris attack historical landmarks. Arrests are high but it is a war of attrition. France, where student protests are highest, withdraws its support from the alliance to focus on domestic problems.
Back in Pakistan the civil war is grinding to a standstill. Public sentiment is torn, except that everyone hates India. In India Muslim fundamentalists carry out attacks in large cities, with Hindu vigilante groups killing hundreds of thousands of Muslims. Muslims become refugees through out the country but with no where to go.
A U.S. base is destroyed by a suicide truck bombing with a small yield atomic bomb. The truck was not even parked on the base. The U.S. retaliates with a gas vapor bomb which levels a medium sized city which has a substantial Muslim population which is thought to be a core center of the rebel movement.
Ok, that’s it for now, I’ll see if my paranoia can fuel a bit more later.