http://www.alternet.org/news/148205/300_economists_warn_that_deficit_hysteria_is_a_big_con_that_threatens_to_drive_america_into_a_full-blown_depression_ 300 economists have warned that deficit hawks are playing with dynamite. Business as usual will plunge the economy into a steep drop. We have not recovered from the Repub fiasco yet.
We did not rebuild Glass/Steagal. We have not installed serious banking reform. The vulnerability still exists. It would be dangerous to allow the fat cats to go back to their dangerous speculating with depositors money.
Most economists think a more serious attempt at stimulation should be done.
According to Intrade, the GOP has a 70% chance of taking over the house in this coming election. I’d tend to follow what the market says, rather than the most of the pundits, as a better barometer of what’s going to happen (since people are putting real money behind those bets).
If you want a race-by-race breakdown of what some people think will happen in the Senate, this might interest you (and for those who never read the Cook Report, you should, it’s fascinating, and the guy is as non-partisan as it gets - about the only pundit I trust).
As for your investments… I hope you are young and you are putting only IRA money into equities at 100%. Otherwise, and I say this not knowing your current financial situation, it’s pretty damn foolish. Please consider diversifying your portfolio regardless of what’s likely to happen in politics.
The most likely event is going to be a stalemate, politically. This is probably good for the economy as it should slow down the breakneck pace of legislating that has been mostly anti-business (through more regulation primarily, not taxes). The worst was the Healthcare law, obviously (remember when AT&T took a $1b hit to their earnings to account for it?), but also the threatened actions like cap and trade, letting the EPA regulate CO2, and cardcheck don’t exactly help the economic outlook.
Who in the media is saying the Republicans won’t take back the House? That’s pretty much a given.
Not at all a given. Nate Silver at 538 has it as a 2-1 favorite, however. This is actually a bit less than the 70% Intrade has.
There is still plenty of uncertainty in predicting House races, even two months before the election. Very few people are paying heavy interest, and those that are are the most engage political (read: hard-right and hard-left).
What’s your prediction for the market from November 1st to December 1st? Pick points or percentage. You’ve got a habit of reading some stupid blog, making ridiculous conclusions, and then barreling in here with “I hear Malina Obama killed Vince Foster. There’s some very suspicious stuff here. What do you think? I think she did it.”
But, hey, congratulations on getting your shift key fixed. Did the market’s performance in the last year and a half help with that?
So, Ralph. Give everyone a number so we all know to come back and evaluate your statements as of December 2nd. It’ll be particularly interesting to compare those numbers to what they’ve done since Obama took office to November 1st, 2010.
-Joe
To the extent that the markets do make good predictions, it’s because the people putting money into them have learned which pundits make good predictions. If Nate Silver, say, and the markets give different probabilities, there are going to be plenty of folks who take Silver’s word on it, and arbitrage the markets back into agreement with him. But you can still find plenty of bizarre distortions in them from relatively small groups of people with absurd beliefs.
Such as?
Not jailing some of the bankers and cracking down on banks.
Not taking over a bank or 2 and loaning to small businesses.
Taking too long to get Elizabeth warren in position.
He made some mistakes.
While all that’s true enough, I’m still interested in precisely what stocks ralph expects to go up given a Republican landslide in November.
He can’t, after all, invest in every stock. I can only assume that he has a shortlist.
Given that that is never going to happen under the Republicans, as ralph seems to think is the panacea, I doubt that’s what he had in mind.
He can invest in a total stock market fund. While this is not truly “total”, you can invest in all the stocks of companies of any notable size in this way.
Are you still spending the profits from the Bush recession?
Bush took a Clinton full employment .no deficit time and turned it into an economic nightmare. You probably see Bush time as the good old days.
Were you in a coma from 2000 to 2008?
Writing a children’s book. I mean, did anyone ever read Mia Hamm’s or Terrell Owens’ children’s books?
Someone was predicting Dow 20,000 in 2009? Did he learn nothing from the idiots that wrote Dow 36,000?
Judging by his record of posting here, that seems a good bet.
It’s possible that the stock market will go up no matter who wins. After all, when you invest, you calculate the expected value of the return with a risk factor built in. If there are the same number of people who believe a Democratic win will be better than a Republican win as the reverse, then no matter what happens, then the risk factor will be removed for an equal number of people.
And if people are over-factoring the downside of risk moreso than the upside, then no matter what happens, the market will go up right after the election.
When the market goes up, not all stocks go up at the same time. You still have to pick the right ones.
The market is still a casino for the wealthy and comfortable , with a few built in safeguards.
No you don’t. If “the market” goes up then any index fund or ETF that covers “the market” will also go up.
As has been pointed out, no you don’t. The vast majority of my long-term equity investments are in SPDR, NYSE, and QQQ index funds. These take a broad (although not complete) and balanced combination of all stocks in the S&P, NYSE, and Nasdaq, respectively, with very low overhead costs (compared to managed mutual funds, for example).
I guess that’s one way to look at it… :dubious:
What kinds of “safeguards” should the stock market have?
Historically, you are correct.