Not that wars ever made much sense, but a war between the USA and China would be absolutely crazy. For one thing, the two countries are linked by trade and finance. Plus, if war did break out, the USA would have no way to project an invasion force on the Chinese mainland… So the battles would be fought in the air, on sea, and cyberspace. I would project that such a war would cause a stock market crash, an immediate interest rate hike, and economic collapse (for both countries). “Winning” would have little meaning, as China now supplies the USA with many manufactured products that are not made here any more. So, if a war broke out, how long would it last?
Wouldn’t it depend on the reason and the alternatives? Saying it would never make any sense isn’t much of an argument as someone can always cook up a scenario where it would make sense.
Countries don’t (usually) just go to war for the hell of it, so your question makes absolutely no sense in a vacuum, which is where your OP puts it.
I can’t see what either country could get out of it.
Before WW1 , most of the combatants were linked by trade and finance, but did not stop them from the fray.
Why you would think that the USA does not have a way of projecting force on the chinese mainland is a bit staggering, concidering the actual capabilities. Had you have said, not enough forces, that would have been different.
Here is the reality, China has exactly one punch, one. Once they shoot their wad, and the battlespace becomes stabilized, its only a matter of time. The stock market won’t matter, its survived WW1 and 2, it can survive 3 if needed. The walmart factor of finished goods, your saying thats a bad thing, if China can’t supply. There is enough onshore in longbeach and vancouver to last a bit. The world and domestic suppliers can tool up for analogs.
How long it would take, would depend on China’s goals for starting the war, and America’s political objectives in ending it. At the very least , several weeks depending on how many Chinese naval and air crews are at the bottom of the pacific, or vice versa American, and a return to the status quo is arranged.
Declan
Yeah, no, it doesn’t make any sense. China would have nothing to gain, nor would the US. Neither one of us is capable of occupying the other, and even if we could, why would we? I’m sure we can think of some far-fetched scenario where it happens, but realistically it not going to happen.
People make mistakes all the time. Asking if a war “makes sense” is the wrong question. Nuclear war doesn’t make sense either, yet it has come perilously close to happening on several occasions.
Why are you assuming it would be China who would start it?
China does not seem to have the means to project non-nuclear force much beyond its borders, and the US (to the best of my knowledge) has no ambitions to occupy Chinese territory. It therefore seems likely that any military engagement would be over something like reconnaissance missions that violate (or are believed to violate) national air- or sea-space, and would be limited to smallish skirmishes that would eventually be resolved diplomatically. Without some compelling national interest that I haven’t heard yet, there no real incentive for either country to get involved in a massive shooting war.
I guess the real wild cards would be if the US would back an invasion of North Korea with ground troops, or China deciding it really wanted Taiwan after all. I could see compelling national interest for either side in resisting those.
Binary, either they or we start it. I am predisposed to thinking they. I am also old enough to understand the Gulf of Tonkin resolution.
Declan
Best I can tell, the OP is trying to make some sort of argument of “War with china will cripple the economy because we trade so much. So let’s not, eh?”
But it doesn’t really work (even putting aside that no-one is advocating full-blown war with China).
So the cost of many manufactured goods goes up, and the US has to re-open many of its rare earth mines. This is all costly, but nothing compared to the trillions a war with a superpower would cost, even if both sides decided not to press any red buttons.
It would make a whole lot of cents for the military-industrial corporations.
Yes it would make sense. The two countries have divergent interests. Noteable over possessions in the South China Sea and with regard to US allies (Taiwan). Could for instance be a stand-off in the region which spiralled out of control - or alternatively just a local war in the region. The USA didn’t even have to be actively involved at the offset. Could be a US ally like Japan coming to blows with China, and the USA being dragged into it this way.
In former times war between China and the USA would have been almost inevitable. It’s just that war has become so prohibitively destructive after 1945 that it might be avoided.
Or somebody else starts it and you’re dragged into it. There’re lots of players in the region which have some beef with China: Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, The Philippines, India.
WW2 did not make sense either.
Neville Chamberlain went to Germany to avoid such a war. To him it made perfect sense to avoid another war such as WW1 20 years earlier. He came back with the “Peace in our Time” document. Herr Hitler thought otherwise and played Chamberlain for a fool because Chamberlain could not understand people would think differently than him. The war got underway in about 18 months’ time.
Just because something does not make sense to you, you make a huge mistake of thinking everyone agrees to you.
Why would there be interest rate hikes in an economic collapse?
Interest is, among other things, insurance against default; the moneylender is always taking a chance some of his loans will not be repaid, so he has to set a rate of interest that will offset that – those loans that are repaid will profit him enough to make up for his losses from defaulters. Economic collapse makes it very chancy any borrower will be able to repay a loan – what lender who still lends at all would lend at a low rate under those circumstances?
Thank you BrainGlutton, your reply has lead me to some fun reading in the past hour.
http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11138.pdf
http://www.jstor.org/stable/1813987?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
If such a crazy war were to break out, would Russia be China’s strongest ally?
Chamberlain used the time he had bought to build up Britain’s run-down military capabilities.
This.
Just about anything will make a ton of sense or no sense at all depending on the circumstances.
China going to war because the Red Sox win the world series: Dumb
US going to war because China is using biological weapons to kill off everyone on earth: Smart.
And a gazillion things in between can go either way.