I was talking about this today with some friends. At the debate, Trump seemed like he was really not interested in defending South Korea. Kim Jon Un would very much like to start a war. Would South Korea survive a Trump administration? Would Congress have anything to say about Trumps idiotic plan to abandon them?
I think Trump will probably end up starting WW3 one way or another if he gets elected.
I don’t. I think Trump is blustering a bit to have other alliance members pay a bit more. It is after all the other countries that border these threats. Why should the USA pay a disproportionate amount?
As long as someone reminds Trump which one is North and which one is South.
We are there as much for our own reasons as we are there to protect South Korea.
It used to be the cold war but now with a rising China, AND an aggressive Russia, South Korea’s location near the intersection between Russia, China and Japan, makes a US presence there useful to us.
The biggest threat Trump presents to South Korea is that the South Koreans are in danger of going blind from rolling their eyes so hard.
Do you think NK could defeat SK? If so, why?
It’s not necessarily a disproportionate amount. You’re naive if you think we’re doing this merely to protect the free world.
Yes. Because China would probably back NK in a war.
It’s absolutely stunning to me how many intelligent and nuanced policies Trump has that only his followers can state for him. I have to assume he’s just too modest to state them clearly himself rather than, apparently, speaking in tongues.
South Korea would defeat North Korea, with or without the USA. America is there to widen the margin of victory and help end the war more rapidly.
I sincerely doubt it. China would maybe back NK in a defensive war, if only to reduce the inevitable flood of refugees. But an offensive one? No way - that gains China nothing but headaches. South Korea is China’s third largest trade partner, just behind Japan.
SK would kick the crap out of NK’s exceedingly creaky conventional forces, though perhaps only at a very nasty cost to Seoul. Personally I’ve long regarded the U.S.’ slow draw-down in SK ( since the late 1980’s ) as a very sensible economizing solution. Frankly I think the U.S. force in SK could be significantly smaller - you don’t need much for a trip-wire force. If you even need one at all.
Without China’s backing, North Korea couldn’t possibly win a war against the South… but they could inflict a heck of a lot of damage in the process of losing. Remember, South Korea’s capital and largest city is within artillery range of the North.
Why would he like to start a war that will inevitably lead to his execution or exile?
No, he wouldn’t. Bluster is par for the course, but Kim values his own survival.
Look up a current map of the Koreas - you’ll see that Seoul has grown - northward, and is now along the DMZ.
I’m guessing that the SK’s are quite aware of the North’s “Massive Artillery” along the border.
It may be a brilliant tactical move - get so close to the guns that they can’t be hit without the guns destroying each other.
If the guns are dug in (as assumed), they can’t fire horizontally - the only way to hit a close-by target would be to fire almost straight up - and any error would put their fire directly on their own positions.
I’m guessing that the SK’s also know the location of the “secret” NK tunnels. Does the North know the locations of the South’s tunnels?
Huh, what? Seoul being 20-30 miles is still very different from being right next to the guns.
And NK could always just back its guns further away and dig new holes.
The fat kid would love to have already won a war of conquest against the South.
Being so suicidal as to actually START such a war? He was never groomed to be Dear Leader (he was the third son) and he killed his Uncle who was supposed to do his “On Job Training”, but he is not, as well as can be ascertained, NOT suicidal.
His father pushed confrontation, but never quite pushed hard enough to trip a war.
Junior like so show off his toys instead of actually killing people.
I think that assuming anything Kim Jong Un does is predicated on rationality is a mistake. I doubt very much that he has any but the most tenuous grasp of reality.
I do find it interesting that recent apparent successes in NK’s missile program align with China’s apparent support for some level of sanctions. China has always been a huge sticking point with enforcement. I can’t imagine NK having nuclear weapons with any reach at all is in Chinese interest either. Perhaps if Kim Jong Un doesn’t start playing ball, he’ll have a sudden stroke and find himself replaced with his sister.
China would get involved, but the US would not? Pffft. Trump might be an idiot, but he hates losing. A SK loss would be a US loss.
even without the U.S. helping South Korea.
Everybody except Kim Jong knows that.
I think your friends don’t have a clue about either Korea’s issues regarding their conflicts. Another thing is Trump didn’t say all he did about Korea, Japan, and America’s other allies because he’s concerned about defending or not defending said allies. He said all that because it plays well to his bigoted (read: anit-foreigner) supporters. Of course Congress would “have something to say about” abandoning our treaty obligations. Another nifty data point is senior military leadership has already stated they would not carry out Trump’s stupid orders when they conflict with current treaties.
Yes, South Korea, along with Japan, will “survive a Trump presidency”. No, Trump will not start World War Three, no matter how much he wishes to or how hard he tries.