Would the destruction of China and India benefit the US economically?

[BlinkingDuck]

@constanze

Condensed impression from several reports on outsourcing and the development of robot-production in Asian countries, with no mention of major production in the US any longer.

Do you have counter-evidence?

If this is true then we in the U.S. are stupid and deserve to fade from the world stage. Also, if it is true, the people that actually did this should be shot for treason.

[wevets]

@constanze

Condensed impression from several reports on outsourcing and the development of robot-production in Asian countries, with no mention of major production in the US any longer.

Do you have counter-evidence?

Que? It seems like there’s lots of evidence of robotics production in the United States:

@http://www.todaysengineer.org/2012/Feb/career-focus.asp

Meanwhile, a large portion of the robotics industry remains within the United States, with approximately 60 percent of the service industry and 80 percent of the military industry located here. The only exception, says Christensen, is robots for manufacturing, for which the biggest companies are located in Germany and Japan.

Beyond that, “The good news is that the service applications for robotics are growing faster in the United States than elsewhere,” Christensen says. “Another bit of good news is that the only widely used medical robot in the world is from the United States.” But he warns that competition is growing, spurred on by heavy investment in countries like South Korea.

And

@http://ohsonline.com/articles/2012/01/19/us-robotics-industry-expects-robust-2012.aspx

U.S. Robotics Industry Expects Robust 2012

…

There will be jobs, it seems certain, to meet what industry leaders foresee as a strong year for robot orders in 2012. Automotive manufacturing is the foremost driver of that growth, but growth is also expected in other sectors -– including aircraft manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage –- they say.

ABB Robotics, for example, announced Jan. 18 that Nemak, which produces aluminum components for the worldwide automotive industry, presented it a 2011 Excellence Award during a ceremony at the Nemak ALFA Cultural Centre in Garza García, Mexico, for outstanding performance in quality, service, technology, and price. The citation said in part, “This has been a challenging year due to the stronger than expect recovery of the automotive industry. Our customers have entrusted Nemak with unprecedented production volume targets and the award of many new programs on a global basis. With support from outstanding companies such as ABB we have been able to meet this extraordinary challenge and look forward to your continued support.”

[Really_Not_All_That_Bright]

I think he was referring specifically to the production of robot components- ie., processors and the like- which seem to come only from Asia.

[ralph124c]

We would be left high and dry-China supplies almost all of the following:
-ferrite cores and transformers-90%
-transistors and diodes-50-60%
-integrated circits-78%
-wire and PCBs-over 60%
-small electric motors-over 90%
-shoes:over 90%
-textiles->70%
In short, we have become an economic colony of China-we supply raw materials, they ship us finished goods.
We also are the No. 1 debtor nation-yet we expend enormous sums on our military…to protect s from…China:smack:

[wevets]

@Really_Not_All_That_Bright

I think he was referring specifically to the production of robot components- ie., processors and the like- which seem to come only from Asia.

I don’t think so; earlier in the thread he said:

@constanze

Remember that we are in 3rd and 4th generation robot factories there; those can’t be rebuilt from scratch in the US, esp. since not only the knowledge for the current factories, but the knowledge how to build the 1st gen. robots, which built the 2nd gen. robots etc., is also no longer present because of over a decade of outsourcing (and lack of quality education in manufacturing in the US generally).

Which I think is pretty definitively shot down by my cites above.

[XT]

I seem to recall a thread on this topic recently (where ‘recently’ is defined as ‘sometime in the last year…or so’). Anyway, my answer is the same…the destruction of China and (or) India would definitely not benefit the US economically, either in the short term or in the long term. Not only would vast new markets that the US could (and is in the process of) exploit be gone, but we’d lose access to cheap goods and services as well as large capital infusions into our country (plus a lot more). It would be an economic disaster (not just in the US but world wide) if either or both were destroyed or fell apart or whatever.

-XT

[wevets]

@ralph124c

In short, we have become an economic colony of China-we supply raw materials, they ship us finished goods.

A common myth:

@http://www.nam.org/Statistics-And-Data/Facts-About-Manufacturing/Landing.aspx

• The United States is the world’s largest manufacturing economy, producing 21 percent of global manufactured products. China is second at 15 percent and Japan is third at 12 percent.[sup]1[/sup]

• U.S. manufacturing produces $1.7 trillion of value each year, or 11.7 percent of U.S. GDP. For every $1.00 spent in manufacturing, another $1.35 is added to the economy.[sup]2[/sup]

• Manufacturing supports an estimated 17 million jobs in the U.S.—about one in six private sector jobs.[sup]3[/sup] Nearly 12 million Americans (or 9 percent of the workforce) are employed directly in manufacturing.[sup]4[/sup]

Regarding the OP though, XT is right, even if the US does have significant manufacturing occurring within its borders, the integration of the economy with the economies of China and India would mean that the US would be dramatically harmed by the disappearance of those nations.

[Indistinguishable]

@XT

I seem to recall a thread on this topic recently (where ‘recently’ is defined as ‘sometime in the last year…or so’).
-XT

Was it… this thread?

[Mijin]

There is a tendency among the general public, particularly in the US, to see economics as a zero-sum game.
That there is some fixed quantity of wealth and jobs in the world, and for one country to get richer, or employ more people, somewhere else has to get poorer. Or, say, that automation has the single net effect of putting people out of work.

Generally speaking, economic activity builds economic activity. And economic activity creates jobs (yes creates; the number of worldwide jobs can go up).

At the moment Chinese labour is doing the kind of jobs that Americans don’t want to do and shouldn’t be doing: very low margin, basic manufacturing. No developed country should be chasing that kind of work.
And these goods as well as improving the lives of americans (because your buck goes further), help build economic activity in the US: countless businesses have lower overheads because of cheap chinese goods.

The relationship is not entirely positive of course. But for the most part, the problems America is having right now are not really about the Chinese poaching US jobs, and they wouldn’t be solved by China being nuked.

(India is slightly more complicated as there is more competition there for skilled service jobs. I might go into that in a separate post)

[China_Guy]

First, China doesn’t “own” the US and didn’t save the US during the financial meltdown. China holds less government debt than Japan. China’s holding of treasuries amounts to about 8%, total debt held by foreigners is about 30% (including China) and about 70% is held in the US. Here’s just one cite: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2011-05/27/content_12589052.htm You can search and learn lots more. And, BTW, this is about 8% of US Federal Government debt. Here’s a breakdown of who owns what % of US federal debt: http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/21/who-owns-america-hint-its-not-china/

If you look at Chinese holdings of other government debt, then it will be quite small (but I can’t be bothered to try look that up). Ditto for Corporate debt. Double ditto for mortgage debt. Net-net, China probably owns less than 1% of total US debt (Federal Government, non Federal Government, Commercial, mortgage). Beijing doesn’t exactly have us by the short and curlies.

Obviously most posters haven’t been in dozens of factories in China across multiple industries. Brute labor force manufacturing is the vast majority of production. I can tell you that the PC factories are just about the opposite of automation and the same with mobile phones. The exceptions I saw were Bosch Power Tools original production line was robotic (and they sunset this as far too expensive to operate in China), and one of the Brilliance-BMW lines was robotic (for the BWM 5 series).

Intel had several different facilities in China. Fab 68 is a major one that may now be in production in Dalian. Keep in mind that it’s #68, and the other Fabs still in operation are not located in China.

4th gen robotic factories in China? I’d like to see a list. Sure, maybe some of the chip foundries, and maybe some of the aerospace related stuff, but certainly the vast majority of manufacturing has a huge manual labor component.