Would the Strategic Defense Initiative work today?

CK Dexter Haven rejected my question, before it could even get to The Man himself. He recommended I post it at the SDMB. Here it is:

Dear Cecil,

Being a child of the video game age, I always thought some kind of comprehensive missile defense would be a no-brainer, after witnessing the awe-inspiring “nuke” in a number of strategy games of the 90’s and today. I know the SDI of the 80s was mercilessly mocked as unfeasible and a pipe dream, and my balloon was rudely deflated when I heard someone say “Why don’t they just put a reflective coating on the missiles? There goes like a trillion dollars in SDI development, right there!” Well… yeah.

But then I got to thinking: don’t we have vastly more powerful lasers now than we did 20 years ago, while presumably our mirror technology hasn’t advanced much in the last century? I googled “Most powerful laser” and got this article, boasting a PETAWATT (!!) laser. http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-04/uota-mpl040708.php . Assuming even 99.9% reflectivity, wouldn’t a gigawatt or so punch right through with a megawatt of power? Or am I misunderstanding how reflectivity works?

Otherwise, we should let those Defense guys know about the amazing mirror. You know, BEFORE they spend the trillion dollars.

Sincerely,
mike,
Casa Grande, Arizona

It’s not just a matter of making the lasers more powerful. You also have to worry about the laser interacting with things like the atmosphere, dust, etc. between the source and the target, and the atmosphere hasn’t changed significantly at all since the 80s.

There’s also the problem that your laser system must itself contain mirrors, for aiming and focusing the laser, and those mirrors have many of the same flaws as any coating you might put on the targets, but have the additional disadvantage that they have to handle the full power of the laser before it’s spread out by distance or attenuated by the atmosphere. A single speck of dust on your aiming mirrors could destroy the whole system.

Not to mention how do you get that much juice built up and stored in space. Hitting a missle while its boosting is much easier than hitting a reentry vehicle. The speeds that they travel at are truly mindboggling. Missles have a very very hard time intercepting them just because of the sheer speed. Like so fast computers have a hard time forecasting trajectories and adjusting course fast enough to make it happen. Fighter jets with the throttles to the stops are slow moving objects by comparison.

SDI was insane then, is insane now, and will probably still be insane 20 years from now.

Mankind hasn’t even perfected vBulletin yet. :stuck_out_tongue:

Define “success”.

Is it a successfull “shield” if the system stops 30% of targets engaged?

Or is it the price tag? (x dollars per missile stopped.)

You also have to build a system that will work against countermeasures. Soviet military technology, while inferior to our own, was not static. A reflective coating is one such approach. Decoys are another.

This is absolutely correct. Lower power lasers have a resonant cavity with a mirror at at each end (partially reflective at the output). At some power level, though, this is no longer feasible. At that point one or more single pass amplifier cavities are used that have no mirrors. Dust on any optical surface is still a problem, but mirrors in a resonant cavity are a particular problem because the power handled by them is several times the output power due to the “Q” factor of the cavity.

Reflective surfaces on the booster body aren’t really of issue; with a weapon of this energy level any reflective coating would be vaporized virtually instantly. (Never mind the difficulty of applying this perfectly reflective coating to a modern composite rocket motor body, which is typically covered with a layer of cork to insulate it.) The much more significant issue is, as Chronos alludes to, is thermal blooming in the atmosphere; specifically, when pumping that amount of energy through the air, even at wavelengths that are normally transparent in air, even a small fraction of a percent absorbed will cause the air to roll and become turbulent, resulting in a more opaque media, which then absorbs more energy, ad nauseam. Pundits then like to throw out terms like “adaptive optics”, but regardless of what you do, the atmosphere is still going to boil turbulently.

Another problem is the sheer power required; not only do you need a lot of energy, but you need it delivered through the system very, very rapidly. This means banks of supercapacitors; not a very portable thing. The current SDI-derived directed energy system, the Air-Borne Laser (ABL) is basically capable of one shot at high power, or a few at lower (essentially system test) power. ABL was downgraded to a ‘demonstrator’ program about three years ago because of the technical problems and lack of clear direction to clear hurdles. One suggestion back in the really crazy days of SDI was an x-ray or gamma ray spaced based laser platform that would be powered by an exploding nuclear bomb; in essence, x-rays or gammas from the explosion would be shunted into a lasing cavity (using electrons and reflective fields rather than optical mirrors) which would fire a few quick shots before being destroyed. Not only was this in violation of the Outer Space Treaty, it also offends good sense that tells us that detonating nuclear weapons in orbit is likely to have severe problems for everyone, including widespread EMP effects and creating new Van Allen belts as a navigation hazard for satellites and spacecraft.

mlees makes a very astute observation about what threshold of effectiveness the overall system would have to achieve in order to be considered successful in an operational context. When you set aside all of the viewgraphs and color charts, the fact is that there was no realistic analysis of the SDI directed energy proposals that demonstrated any measure of near-term technical feasibility of either the technology or the system. Although we have higher energy lasers today, the essential problems still remain.

In short, no, directed energy SDI is not feasible, now or within the foreseeable future. Other defensive methods (ground based missile interception, “Brilliant Pebbles” type space-based intercepts, et cetera) have some measure of technical feasibility, but still fall short of offering the promise of a complete defensive shield. The current focus in ABM is against a very restricted party (typically referred to as a “rogue nation”) launching a limited number of weapons (<10) of limited countermeasure or evasive capability. Systems which are devoted to theater-level defense (Patriot Advanced Capability 2 and 3, the USN Standard Missile 2 and 3, THAAD) are more viable, albeit not typically against strategic-class weapons.

I’m not sure why Dex bounced your question; it seems like a perfectly legitimate question for Cecil or the SDSAB to address; although politically contentious, it has an easily referenced technical answer.

Stranger

I thought they were working on some electro-magnetic “rail” gun or something that would fire these giant metal “staples” or something. I remember seeing a brief TV article about that many years ago.

Would that be more viable than lasers?

The navy is still working on its rail gun. They got a projectile up to 5640 mph (2521 m/s) this past January.

One point I think no one has brought up is that all this is to be under computer control. Is anyone aware of a computer program that worked the first time with no testing? Yes, parts of the program can be tested, but the only full test is under attack. So maybe it would work the tenth time, but anyone who thinks it would work the first time through is smoking something. This isn’t just my view but that of some very eminent computer scientists.

Then there are things like cheap decoys, chaff, who knows what.

And if it was known to work, who knows what nut might decide that his last chance was to attack during deployment.

Much as I thought MAD was mad, it did work (shudder).

Interesting! Thanks for all of your responses. I think maybe the reflective surfaces of a closed directed energy system, ground based or space based, could be designed to wear out after a shot, with components easily replaceable, thus saving most of the system from the effects of high powered lasers, whereas the reflective surface of a missile would have to be stay effective at very high velocities under extreme conditions. Weight would also be an issue on the missile itself, but less so on ground based defense (though still considerable on space based because of payload delivery concerns). Even still, boiling atmosphere as described just can’t be circumvented. It also occurred to me that there would be a whole new set of problems if shooting through cloud cover, especially considering that cloud cover is very predictable, so nuclear launches could be timed with maximum cover in place, fudging and reducing the effectiveness of laser systems. Looks like if we want one, it won’t be directed energy. Too bad, because… well… it sounds cool.

That was what my vBulletin crack was about.

… even beyond the staggering technical issues, the questions about reliability, and any consideration of costs, there’s the simple fact that in a real attack, any such shield could be defeated for the cost of a small sailboat and the fuel to take it from wherever to the Potomac river. Or, for those who prefer Tom Clancy exotic scenarios, a submarine with a simple 10-mile range rocket on it.

Which is probably the preferred delivery mechanism for any plausible attacker right now, anyway. That way, a rogue state doesn’t have to develop a missile that can carry their warhead, which is probably much larger and clunkier than our refined designs, anyway.

To be fair, the Powers that Be are also working on systems that could detect nuclear weapons on ships and other vehicles, and some of the methods they’re working on could plausibly be feasible.