Would tobacco prohibition actually work?

Prohibition has obviously been disastrous for alcohol and marijuana, and I’d always assumed that it would be that way for tobacco too, but then I saw an episode of Minority Report where some folks were growing illegal tobacco. And then it hit me: would that even be a market? I’ve always thought that tobacco use was so prevalent because it’s available and legal. It doesn’t seem like the kind of thing people not already addicted to it would seek out if it wasn’t. So I have two questions to pose for debate:

  1. Is tobacco actually interesting enough to want to acquire it if you’re not already a user and it’s not legally available? I would think that if you don’t already have the addiction, there’d be little point in going out of your way to get it.

  2. Assuming it’s not, could a system where we grandfather in smokers and dippers by prescription while taking it off the market for new users work?

#2 is already being done by some countries. This link lists some countries and the methods they are taking.

http://www.worldhealthsummit.org/fileadmin/downloads/2013/WHSRMA_2013/Presentations/Day_3/Reddy%20Srinath%20-%20Tobacco%20Control%20The%20End-Game.pdf

Personally I think it is a great strategy to grandfather in the smokers but ban any new smokers born after a certain year. Say you start with any one born after today then theoretically in 18 years there will be no new smokers.

INteresting. I also wonder if the rise of vaping will make tobacco pretty much obsolete anyway, at least for smokers.

Vaping is just another way to continue your addiction. People don’t use it to quit smoking to any great effect.

If the vapers are using it to slowly reduce their nicotine intake then yeah eventually.

Cite?

I know quite a few people who are doing it to slowly reduce their nicotine intake in hopes to one day be clean of it and not have the addiction anymore.

A lot of kids are taking up vaping instead of smoking. It may be a quitting aid for current smokers, but a lot of people are taking up vaping who haven’t smoked tobacco.

Yes. There’s black markets for cigarettes in areas where the tobacco taxes are high, notably in NYC. Also, let’s not forget that cigarettes are smuggled into prisons, schools, and other places like that. I do imagine that with prohibition that some people would give it up just fine, others would struggle but would make it because they don’t want to break the law, but there’s still plenty of people who would find a way.

I don’t see why, if this were to happen, there couldn’t just be a system of patches or gum. I’m not an expert, but as I understand, the physical symptoms of cigarettes are gone relatively quickly, and unlike other physically addicting substances, it’s not likely to cause major health problems, so I’m unsure if it’s even necessary.

As I understand, the larger barriers are the habits and social aspects of it. If one is used to smoking a cigarette when they get stressed, without something to replace that, there’s a risk of relapse or just replacing it with something possibly even worse.

Speaking from personal anecdote, I know several people that swapped to vaping with no intention to quit. I’ve asked them about it in the past, and they seem to be happy with their habits. They swapped mostly because it’s faster, more convenient, they can sometimes use it indoors, and it doesn’t stink. Obviously, there’s more research is still needed on the long term effects of vaping, but the general perception is that if you’re going to use tobacco, vaping is probably safer. Hell, some have tried to convince me there’s no side effects to it, but I don’t buy that.

And for young kids, there’s still the effects of nicotine. Why do people get addicted to any sort of substance, even relatively benign stuff like caffeine or nicotine? Maybe they think it’s cool. Maybe someone told them it gave them a buzz or helped them relax and they thought they’d try it. Regardless, there are some kids picking up vaping who’ve never smoked.

According to this article, and a few others I’ve seen recently, if vaping is going to work the user must first stop smoking entirely, then vape every day to make up for it, then gradually taper off vaping itself. The worst thing to do is to both smoke and vape at the same time. But as the article says,

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That’s existing addicts though. I was wondering if the product is interesting enough that a lot of non-addicts would bother to seek it out if it was illegal. Marijuana and alcohol actually do interesting things to you. Tobacco smokers often refer to quitting smoking as hard because “I need something to do with my hand.”

No, and vapor cigs will only replace part of the market. Not everyone smokes just to get their nic fix.

No ‘prohibition’ has ever worked, anywhere, at any time for more than a brief period.

Sure, if it’s something people really want. Lots of things are illegal, the only ones that create a black market problem are products people actually demand. And my hypothesis was that tobacco is only in demand because it’s been readily available.

I’d say your hypothesis is wrong. For one thing, it’s been made far less “ready” by the enormous tax increases, but that’s only had a slight long-term effect.

There will always be people who want something that’s around, even if it’s as hard to get as a few grams of good blow. No further justification needed.

I started smoking cigs in college when I couldn’t get pot. It was a lousy buzz, but it was a buzz – early on.

So yes, I imagine that some people would use it for the sensory effects.

Some do, there’s little health risks, and what’s even more critical- no second-hand smoke risks. SHS kills 50,000 NON-smokers a year in the USA, so smoking must be stopped. Ban it.

That doesnt mean that other ways of indulging your nicotine addiction can’t continue- snuff, chew, gum, patches and vaping are fine with me.* Everyone gets to choose their own handbasket to go to Hell in*, as far as I am concerned. But you dont get to make others take your trip with you.

So, yeah- ban tobacco smoking 100%. No grandfathering, no exceptions. Allow the rest with warnings.

what aspect is unfulfilled by vaping?

None, if you consider only those who smoke cigarettes because they can’t or haven’t chosen to quit. Same as most bums will gladly drink convenience-store vodka and are hardly ever known to send a bottle back.

Those who smoke more by choice (or what they think is choice) and have (or think they have) some sensitivity to the quality of the tobacco and such would never resort to a plastic vapor tube. And if you make tobacco illegal, there will always be a faction that maintains that the real thing is “better” even if it’s floor sweepings from a Cuban lumber mill.

Yes, they do. There has been tried various leafs and herbs that sub for tobacco, with no nicotine, and they have been total failures. Lobelia, kinnikinick , etc.

The sensation of enjoyment is almost entirely the addiction getting it’s fix.

More or less, Machineguns, artillery etc have been successfully prohibited.

and so have the most destructive versions of some things, so as long as we allow the addicts to get their fix, smoking prohibition could work.

Then you are setting a ridiculous standard. Of course some people will want to smoke but we could easily get to a point where it’s insignificant.

Right, as long as they have a way to feed that nicotine monkey, most smokers would be OK.

Sure, like today there are a few dudes who buy and smoke $50 Cuban cigars once a month, there’d be a few diehards. But they wouldn’t be killing 50,000 Americans a year.