In a thread I started, somebody linked to another thread about a problem with a biased coin, that paid $1 2/3 of the time. Got me thinking would you quit your job for that, assuming that $1 was the max stake. I prefer to think of it as a fair die, but it’s the same thing. Assume you could quit your job to play “throw the die”, where you pay 1 on a (1,2) and win 1 on a (3,4,5,6). Lets assume including the throwing and the payouts each round takes about 30 seconds. Each throw has a net EV of 33.333… cents, (-1/3)+(1*2/3)
The maximum you would then make is an average $40 per hour. Would you quit your job to throw dice?
Assume after a few years when inflation warrants it, the max stake will increase to $1.50, $2, $3 etc.
OP said the maximum is $40/hr, averaging 33¢/throw – so if I’m doing the math right, you roll the die ~120 times and then spend the rest of the hour doing whatever you find interesting: read, paint, work on The Great American Novel, tinker on an invention in your garage…
No way! How boring would that be? Maximum boring. Also it’s a pay cut, so extra no. If you amp up the pay so I can retire after a year, then maybe. I don’t think I could tough it out longer than that.
First reaction: Why would I want to make less money?
Second reaction: No way. Even if it was more than I make now I can make more money doing stuff I don’t want to do already.
Third reaction: Wait a minute! Do I have to actually pay attention to what I’m doing? I can roll dice while I’m watching TV. I can learn to type with one hand and drop annoying posts all over the Dope while I’m still rolling. There’s another thing I can do with one hand already. So a little more specificity would help here.
Wouldn’t that mess up your shoulder after a while?
I’d do it, then have a robot built to do it for me. Then I would just let the money roll in. I could be like a robot pimp, I can have a stable of robots rolling dice for me and earning me money while I lounge around in my purple hat doing cocaine.
How involved would I have to be? Could I create a mechanism that allowed me to roll the dice by tapping on a pedal? Could I trust the gambling partner to put money in my pile when I won and to take money out when I lost? If I could do that, then I could, in four hours a day of sitting at a desk surfing the web, earn about what I earn now–and have the rest of the day to do other work. Or I could use that four hours to try to become an actual author. I’d do it.
If it requires me to pay attention to what’s going on and to make even the most trivial decision every thirty seconds (to reach out for my winnings or not), no way.
When settiing it up I envisaged a craps style table you have to throw the die down, then you get given your extra $1 or have yours taken away, you select a new dollar chip from your stash and put it down on the table or add the extra dollar to your stash, get handed the die and throw it again, so you’d have to stay pretty involved.