They are definitely losing. Logistics and morale win wars, and Russia has neither. Of course, I do not know the situation on the ground as I’m not there. I am basing this on my experience as an army officer and trying my best to read between the lines on what I suspect the situation is on the ground (largely based on Russian actions and speeches and not Ukrainian propaganda). I sincerely believe Russia has lost (or quite near to it) the ground war. The only thing keeping them in this is their air power. This is not to say that things might turn around for them, but things look very grim for the Russian army right now.
I think in his twisted mind he figures he can’t lose and I’m thinking it probably is his best option to stay in power. Losing a war to Ukraine would be humiliating, losing to the entire West would not. The war becomes an existential risk to Russia if he claims NATO has cornered them and they have no choice but to bravely fight back. He’s betting NATO doesn’t have the stomach to invade Russia so at worst, they’d just drive him out of Ukraine. But much more likely is that an unhinged Putin threatening asymmetrical war on the world would bring NATO to a compromise right quick.
This guy seems to have the same idea. Putin will provoke in hopes of bringing in NATO.
Only NATO Intervention in Ukraine Can Save Putin - The Atlantic
I vote that we ignore his calls, don’t call him, and just keep doing what we’re doing.
To those who think Russia is losing, define losing please. Putin may lose quite a lost of men and stuff, but Ukraine will be utterly wrecked. Humiliating Russia will make everyone happy- except the Ukrainians who are literally facing WWII style destruction.
I’m among those who thought it insane for NATO to be shooting directly at Russians. But I’m coming around. The sheer destruction makes me think that those of us who can do something must.
What makes you think Putin wants the fire out?
Winning would be achieving a single one of their pre-war objectives (none of which included pounding Ukraine’s cities into rubble). Losing is anything other than that.
There are a number of ways to look at it.
From one perspective, the “war is a continuation of politics by other means”, then you win a war by accomplishing the political objectives. That is really unlikely to happen.
From a more military perspective, when you conduct a mission, then during the planning phase you spell out your objective for success. For a junior officer (as I was), this is platoon level. “The mission will be considered a success when all patrol markers have been visited, and all personnel has returned safely to the FOB.” This is too simplistic but hopefully helps to illustrate the point. So, the Russian army certainly had some set of objectives at a strategic, operational, and unit level. I don’t think many, if any, of the strategic or operational objectives that they likely had set for themselves. I’m sure some unit-level operations have been “successful” but not in so far as furthering the broader goals, which is kind of the whole point. Succeeding at a unit level is supposed to feed higher, and that does not seem to be the case. Also, casualties and vehicles losses have been high. Really high. Even accounting for a somewhat higher disregard for the lives of their troops (if true), the casualty levels are high for modern combat. Losing three generals confirmed is just wow. The fact that the generals feel the need to come that far to the front is really telling.
So from my perspective, I don’t think the Russian army is in a position from a logistical or morale perspective to accomplish much of anything except get people killed. This is what I mean when I say they’ve lost but they just don’t know it yet (in fact, I suspect their senior leadership does know it but fear coming home as losers as much as dying in Ukraine).
The Russian land forces are going to bleed, and bleed and bleed. More senior officers are going to die. More men are simply going to walk away (and good for them, they should).
At least, in my opinion, based on what I’m seeing. I could be wrong. I’m wrong quite often so I don’t see why this should be any different.
Another factor in morale may simply be the abusive treatment towards Russian troops themselves. I don’t know if this is still done, but I recall watching a video around 17 years ago that showed how Russian conscripts were forced to lie down shirtless during basic training as officers ran around stepping on their abdomens and bodies. A military that treats its men like that is going to have low morale and high desertion rates.
A recent article on reported senior officer deaths. If I was of a conspiracy mindset, then I would almost wonder if they were defecting and being reported as killed. This is an unusually high number of senior officers killed.
As well as them serving double duty as NCO’s, which apparently, they do not have very many of.
Has anyone checked if the bodies are really just a uniform, a wig, and 200 lbs of potatoes?
the “last guy” had a video floating around the twitter/reddit-sphere … the guy with his “military papers” on his face/under his cap …
so unless the russians got really good with cloning potatoes, it is a fair guess to say he is Kaputt!
This is some fine shade.
@Activision
We would like to formally apologize for using Russia as
antagonists in our Call of Duty series. Had we known
the truth we would have used a much more competent
military, such as Cuba or Laos.
I saw this online and thought it was funny.
“Everyone thought Russia had the second-best army. It ends up it is the second-best … in Ukraine.”
Did Activision really tweet that? I wasn’t able to find that tweet in their feed. I found other places hosting a screenshot of the tweet but nothing that looked official.
I thought so. It looked real enough when I copied it from twitter, but I’ve been fooled before.
Isn’t one of the points that people are afraid that Putin is (or will be) at the point where he wants to start a deliberate nuclear exchange?
Do you mean with Russia? So you think the plan (if a plan it is) would work?
Apparently there’s black smoke coming from chimney of Russian embassy in Poland, which likely means they are burning documents (which is what happened in Ukraine right before they invaded). Couple that with Medvedev’s threatening tweet yesterday, and it looks like this FSB guy could be right about shelling Poland. Scary.
…or that they just elected a new Russian pontiff/president.
I really do hope Russia attacks Poland; I really do. It would be the foolishness to end all foolishness, the move that gets Russia NATO-smacked hard and ends this war swiftly.